The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields
Makram El-Shagi, Gregor von Schweinitz
Abstract
In the present paper, we build a bivariate semiparametric dynamic panel model to repro-duce the joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields. While the individual equations resemble Pesaran-type cointegration models, we allow for different long-run relationships in both equations, nonlinearities in the level effect of ratings, and asymmetric effects in changes of ratings and yields. We find that the interest rate equation and the rating equation imply significantly different long-run relationships. While the high persistence in both interest rates and ratings might lead to the misconception that they follow a unit root process, the joint analysis reveals that they converge slowly to a joint equilibrium. While this indicates that there is no vicious cycle driving countries into default, the persistence of ratings is high enough that a rating shock can have substantial costs. Generally, the interest rate adjusts rather quickly to the risk premium that is in line with the rating. For most ratings, this risk premium is only marginal. However, it becomes substantial when ratings are downgraded to highly speculative (a rating of B) or lower. Rating shocks that drive the rating below this threshold can increase the interest rate sharply, and for a long time. Yet, simulation studies based on our estimations show that it is highly improbable that rating agencies can be made responsible for the most dramatic spikes in interest rates.
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Network Positioning, Co-Location or Both?
Muhamed Kudic
Innovation Networks in the German Laser Industry. Springer Cham,
2015
Abstract
Previous research indicates that firm innovativeness can either be determined by a firm’s position within the network dimension or by its position within the geographical dimension. Integrative studies addressing both distinct and combined proximity effects remains rare (cf. Whittington et al. 2009). Thus, we address in this Chapter the following research question: Are firm-level innovation outcomes positively or negatively related to network positioning effects, geographical co-location effects or combined proximity effects; and if the latter case is true, are the combined effects substitutional or complementary in nature? Panel data count models with fixed and random effects were used to analyze a firm’s innovative performance as measured by patent application counts. This last empirical analysis is organized as follows: We start with a short introduction in Sect. 12.1. Next, we provide a brief discussion of theoretical background in Sect. 12.2. In Sect. 12.3 we introduce our conceptual framework and derive our hypotheses. In Sect. 12.4 we introduce the data and methods used. Next, we outline the estimation strategy and report our empirical results in Sect. 12.5. Finally, we discuss our findings and conclude with a number of critical remarks in Sect. 12.6.
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Do Better Capitalized Banks Lend Less? Long-run Panel Evidence from Germany
Claudia M. Buch, Esteban Prieto
International Finance,
No. 1,
2014
Abstract
Higher capital features prominently in proposals for regulatory reform. But how does increased bank capital affect business loans? The real costs of increased bank capital in terms of reduced loans are widely believed to be substantial. But the negative real-sector implications need not be severe. In this paper, we take a long-run perspective by analysing the link between the capitalization of the banking sector and bank loans using panel cointegration models. We study the evolution of the German economy for the past 44 years. Higher bank capital tends to be associated with higher business loan volume, and we find no evidence for a negative effect. This result holds both for pooled regressions as well as for the individual banking groups in Germany.
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Regulation, Innovation and Technology Diffusion - Evidence from Building Energy Efficiency Standards in Germany
Makram El-Shagi, Claus Michelsen, Sebastian Rosenschon
Discussionpapers des DIW Berlin,
No. 1371,
2014
Abstract
The impact of environmental regulation on technology diffusion and innovations is studied using a unique data set of German residential buildings. We analyze how energy efficiency regulations, in terms of minimum standards, affects energy-use in newly constructed buildings and how it induces innovation in the residential-building industry. The data used consists of a large sample of German apartment houses built between 1950 and 2005. Based on this information, we determine their real energy requirements from energy performance certificates and energy billing information. We develop a new measure for regulation intensity and apply a panel-error-correction regression model to energy requirements of low and high quality housing. Our findings suggest that regulation significantly impacts technology adoption in low quality housing. This, in turn, induces improvements in the high quality segment where innovators respond to market signals.
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A Weighty Issue Revisited: The Dynamic Effect of Body Weight on Earnings and Satisfaction in Germany
Frieder Kropfhäußer, Marco Sunder
Abstract
We estimate the relationship between changes in the body mass index (bmi) and wages or satisfaction, respectively, in a panel of German employees. In contrast to previous literature, the dynamic models indicate that there is an inverse u-shaped association between bmi and wages among young workers. Among young male workers, work satisfaction is affected beyond the effect on earnings. Our finding of an implied optimum bmi in the overweight range could indicate that the recent rise in weight does not yet constitute a major limitation to productivity.
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The Social Capital Legacy of Communism-results from the Berlin Wall Experiment
Peter Bönisch, Lutz Schneider
European Journal of Political Economy,
No. 32,
2013
Abstract
In this paper we establish a direct link between the communist history, the resulting structure of social capital, and attitudes toward spatial mobility. We argue that the communist regime induced a specific social capital mix that discouraged geographic mobility even after its demise. Theoretically, we integrate two branches of the social capital literature into one more comprehensive framework distinguishing an open type and a closed type of social capital. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) we take advantage of the natural experiment that separated Germany into two parts after the WWII to identify the causal effect of social capital on mobility. We estimate a three equation ordered probit model and provide strong empirical evidence for our theoretical propositions.
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Cooperation Events, Ego-Network Characteristics and Firm Innovativeness – Empirical Evidence from the German Laser Industry
Muhamed Kudic, Katja Guhr
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2013
Abstract
We study how firm innovativeness is related to individual cooperation events and the structure and dynamics of firms’ ego-networks employing a unique panel dataset for the full population of 233 German laser source manufactures between 1990 and 2010. Firm innovativeness is measured by yearly patent applications as well as patent grants with a two year time-lag. Network measures are calculated on the basis of 570 knowledge-related publicly funded R&D alliances. Estimation results from a panel data count model with fixed effects are suggestive of direct innovation effects due to individual cooperation events, but only as long as structural ego-network characteristics are neglected. Innovativeness is robustly related to ego-network size and ego-network brokerage whereas ego-network density reveals some surprising results.
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Human Capital Mobility and Regional Convergence
Lutz Schneider, Alexander Kubis
Regional Studies,
2012
Abstract
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Human Capital Mobility and Convergence – A Spatial Dynamic Panel Model of the German Regions
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Abstract
Since the fall of the iron curtain in 1989, the migration deficit of the Eastern part of Germany has accumulated to 1.8 million people, which is over ten percent of its initial population. Depending on their human capital endowment, these migrants might either – in the case of low-skilled migration – accelerate or – in high-skilled case – impede convergence. Due to the availability of detailed data on regional human capital, migration and productivity growth, we are able to test how geographic mobility affects convergence via the human capital selectivity of migration. With regard to the endogeneity of the migration flows and human capital, we apply a dynamic panel data model within the framework of β-convergence and account for spatial dependence. The regressions indicate a positive, robust, but modest effect of a migration surplus on regional productivity growth. After controlling for human capital, the effect of migration decreases; this decrease indicates that skill selectivity is one way that migration impacts growth.
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Human Capital Mobility and Convergence. A Spatial Dynamic Panel Model of the German Regions
Alexander Kubis, Lutz Schneider
Abstract
Since the fall of the iron curtain in 1989, the migration deficit of the Eastern part of Germany has accumulated to 1.8 million people, which is over 10 percent of its ini-tial population. Depending on their human capital endowment, these migrants might either – in the case of low-skilled migration – accelerate or – in high-skilled case– impede convergence. Due to the availability of detailed data on regional human capital, migration and productivity growth, we are able to test how geographic mobil-ity affects convergence via the human capital selectivity of migration. With regard to the endogeneity of the migration flows and human capital, we apply a dynamic panel data model within the framework of β-convergence and account for spatial depend-ence. The regressions indicate a positive, robust, but modest effect of a migration surplus on regional productivity growth. After controlling for human capital, the effect of migration decreases; this decrease indicates that skill selectivity is one way that migration impacts growth.
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