Brown Bag Seminar
Brown Bag Seminar Financial Markets Department The seminar series "Brown Bag Seminar" was offered on a regular basis by members of the Financial Markets department and their…
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Speed Projects
Speed Projects On this page, you will find the IWH EXplore Speed Projects in chronologically descending order. 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2021 SPEED 2021/01…
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Projects
Our Projects 07.2022 ‐ 12.2026 Evaluation of the InvKG and the federal STARK programme On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection, the IWH and the RWI…
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AIECE General Report, Part 2, Spring 2023
Andrej Drygalla, Axel Lindner, Birgit Schultz
IWH Studies,
No. 4,
2023
Abstract
The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is a member of AIECE (Association d'Instituts Europeens de Conjoncture Economique/Association of European Conjuncture Institutes), an association of independent European institutes involved in surveying economic conditions and developments, and in short-term macroeconomic forecasting. The main objective of the Association is to stimulate the exchanges between its members with a view to improve their insight into international economic developments. This ranges from the exchange of statistical or institutional information to discussions on economic policy Guidelines to common research activities. The AIECE organises between its members an exchange of view, of information and of literature on international economic developments, in particular in Europe. The Association provides the framework for joint activities of its members in areas of common interest. Its structure allows its members to develop common views on the future cyclical development. In order to meet these objectives the Association has half-yearly plenary meetings, centred around a general report on the European conjuncture prepared in turn by one of the members in cooperation with the other member institutes, but also with discussions of the working group reports and of special surveys prepared by member institutes. In Spring 2023, the report was written by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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AIECE General Report, Part 1, Spring 2023
Andrej Drygalla, Axel Lindner, Birgit Schultz
IWH Studies,
No. 3,
2023
Abstract
The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is a member of AIECE (Association d'Instituts Europeens de Conjoncture Economique/Association of European Conjuncture Institutes), an association of independent European institutes involved in surveying economic conditions and developments, and in short-term macroeconomic forecasting. The main objective of the Association is to stimulate the exchanges between its members with a view to improve their insight into international economic developments. This ranges from the exchange of statistical or institutional information to discussions on economic policy Guidelines to common research activities. The AIECE organises between its members an exchange of view, of information and of literature on international economic developments, in particular in Europe. The Association provides the framework for joint activities of its members in areas of common interest. Its structure allows its members to develop common views on the future cyclical development. In order to meet these objectives the Association has half-yearly plenary meetings, centred around a general report on the European conjuncture prepared in turn by one of the members in cooperation with the other member institutes, but also with discussions of the working group reports and of special surveys prepared by member institutes. In Spring 2023, the report was written by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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Konjunktur aktuell: Belebung in Dienstleistungsbranchen, aber zunächst weiter schwache Industriekonjunktur
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 2,
2023
Abstract
Im Sommer 2023 deuten Stimmungsindikatoren auf einen weltweiten Aufschwung in den Dienstleistungsbranchen, die Konjunktur im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe bleibt aber schwach. Hohe Inflation und gestiegene Leitzinsen dämpfen die Konjunktur in den meisten Weltregionen. In Europa belasten auch im langjährigen Vergleich hohe Energiepreise. Insgesamt bleibt die Dynamik der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2023 verhalten. Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird in mäßigem Tempo expandieren, denn mit sinkender Inflation und erhöhter Lohndynamik wird der private Konsum wieder zulegen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte 2023 um 0,3% zurückgehen, für das kommende Jahr ist ein Zuwachs von 1,7% prognostiziert. Für 2023 ist mit einer Inflationsrate von 6,1% und für 2024 mit 2,7% zu rechnen.
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People
People Job Market Candidates Doctoral Students PhD Representatives Alumni Supervisors Lecturers Coordinators Job Market Candidates Tommaso Bighelli Job market paper: "The…
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Lecturers
Lecturers at CGDE Institutions Jordan Adamson Assistant Professor at Institute for Empirical Economic Research, Leipzig University. Website Course: Econometrics (winter term…
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Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one of the four research departments (Financial Markets – Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets –…
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Household Indebtedness, Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumption: Evidence from China
Michael Funke, Xiang Li, Doudou Zhong
Emerging Markets Review,
June
2023
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of household indebtedness on the transmission of monetary policy to consumption using the Chinese household-level survey data. We employ a panel smooth transition regression model to investigate the non-linear role of indebtedness. We find that housing-related indebtedness weakens the monetary policy transmission, and this effect is non-linear as there is a much larger counteraction of consumption in response to monetary policy shocks when household indebtedness increases from a low level rather than from a high level. Moreover, the weakened monetary policy transmission from indebtedness is stronger in urban households than in rural households. This can be explained by the investment good characteristic of real estate in China.
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