Ludwig (Interview)
About the CIA and a glass of red wine ... Professor Dr Udo Ludwig on the beginnings of our institute The core of the IWH founding team came from the Institute for Applied Economic…
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Loose (Interview)
When there were almost no flats in Halle yet ... Brigitte Loose about IWH's foundation and development Ms Loose, how did you experience the early days of IWH? Looking back, it was…
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Monitoring of Business Cycles for the Land Saxony-Anhalt
Monitoring of Business Cycles for the Land Saxony-Anhalt This data was generated by IWH on behalf of the Ministry of Economy, Science and Digitalisation of Saxony-Anhalt from 2007…
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Branches of economy
Branches of economy Gross domestic product, gross value added Gross domestic product (GDP) includes the value of all goods and services produced in an economic area during a…
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Projects
Our Projects 07.2022 ‐ 12.2026 Evaluation of the InvKG and the federal STARK programme On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection, the IWH and the RWI…
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Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one of the four research departments (Financial Markets – Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets –…
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Evidence-based Support for Adaptation Policies in Emerging Economies
Maximilian Banning, Anett Großmann, Katja Heinisch, Frank Hohmann, Christian Lutz, Christoph Schult
IWH Studies,
No. 2,
2023
Abstract
In recent years, the impacts of climate change become increasingly evident, both in magnitude and frequency. The design and implementation of adequate climate adaptation policies play an important role in the macroeconomic policy discourse to assess the impact of climate change on regional and sectoral economic growth. We propose different modelling approaches to quantify the socio-economic impacts of climate change and design specific adaptations in three emerging market economies (Kazakhstan, Georgia and Vietnam) which belong to the areas that are heavily exposed to climate change. A Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model has been used for Vietnam and economy-energy-emission (E3) models for the other two countries. Our modelling results show how different climate hazards impact the economy up to the year 2050. Adaptation measures in particular in the agricultural sector have positive implications for the gross domestic product (GDP). However, some adaptation measures can even increase greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the focus on GDP as the main indicator to evaluate policy measures can produce welfare-reducing policy decisions.
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Evidence-based Support for Adaptation Policies in Emerging Economies
Maximilian Banning, Anett Großmann, Katja Heinisch, Frank Hohmann, Christian Lutz, Christoph Schult
Low Carbon Economy,
No. 1,
2023
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly evident, and the design of effective climate adaptation policies is important for regional and sectoral economic growth. We propose different modelling approaches to quantify the socio-economic impacts of climate change on three vulnerable countries (Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Vietnam) and design specific adaptations. We use a Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model for Vietnam and an economy-energy-emission (E3) model for the other two countries. Our simulations until 2050 show that selected adaptation measures, in particular in the agricultural sector, have positive implications for GDP. However, some adaptation measures can even increase greenhouse gas emissions. Focusing on GDP alone can lead to welfare-reducing policy decisions.
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Business Cycle Characteristics of Mediterranean Economies: a Secular Trend and Cycle Dynamics Perspective
Anna Solms, Bernd Süssmuth
International Economics and Economic Policy,
October
2022
Abstract
This study analyzes business cycle characteristics for all 20 major contemporaneous economies bordering the Mediterranean Sea based on annual real gross domestic product series for the period from 1960 to 2019. The region we investigate corresponds to the Mare Internum region of the Imperial Roman Empire during the Nerva-Antonine and early Severan dynasty, i.e., at the time of the maximum extent of the Roman Empire around 100 to 200 CE. The covered area encircles the Mediterranean, including economies now belonging to the European Union as well as acceding countries, Turkey, and the Middle East and North African economies. Using a components-deviation-cycle approach, we assess level trends and relative volatility of output. We also quantify the contribution of various factors to the business cycle variability within a region. We find cyclic commonalities and idiosyncrasies are related to ancient and colonial history and to contemporaneous trade relationships. Caliphate and Ottoman Empire membership as well as colonial rule in the twentieth century and contemporary Muslim share of population are the most promising predictors of business cycle commonalities in the region.
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26.04.2022 • 10/2022
Regional effects of a recession in Germany triggered by an import stop for Russian gas
A halt in Russian gas deliveries would lead to a recession in the German economy. Not all regions would be equally affected: The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects a significantly stronger slump in economic output in regions where the manufacturing sector has a large weight than elsewhere.
Oliver Holtemöller
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