The Term Structure of Banking Crisis Risk in the United States: A Market Data Based Compound Option Approach
Stefan Eichler, Alexander Karmann, Dominik Maltritz
Journal of Banking and Finance,
No. 4,
2011
Abstract
We use a compound option-based structural credit risk model to estimate banking crisis risk for the United States based on market data on bank stocks on a daily frequency. We contribute to the literature by providing separate information on short-term, long-term and total crisis risk instead of a single-maturity risk measure usually inferred by Merton-type models or barrier models. We estimate the model by applying the Duan (1994) maximum-likelihood approach. A strongly increasing total crisis risk estimated from early July 2007 onwards is driven mainly by short-term crisis risk. Banks that defaulted or were overtaken during the crisis have a considerably higher crisis risk (especially higher long-term risk) than banks that survived the crisis.
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The Diffusion of Microgeneration Technologies. Assessing the Influence of Perceived Product Characteristics on Home Owners' Willingness to Pay
Marius Claudy, Claus Michelsen, A. O´Driscol
Energy Policy,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
This study presents empirical insight into willingness to pay (WTP) for microgeneration technologies and the relative influence of subjective consumer perceptions. First, we apply a double-bounded-contingent valuation method to elicit Irish home owners’ willingness to pay for micro wind turbines, wood pellet boilers, solar panels and solar water heaters. Utilizing findings from the adoption of innovation literature, in a second step, we assess the influence of different antecedents on WTP for each of the four technologies, including (1) home owners’ perception of product characteristics, (2) normative influences, and (3) socio demographic characteristics. Our results show that WTP varies significantly between the four technologies. More importantly, however, home owners’ hold different beliefs about the respective technologies, which significantly influence their WTP. The results provide valuable information for marketers and policy makers, aiming to promote microgeneration technologies more effectively in consumer markets.
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Can Korea Learn from German Unification?
Ulrich Blum
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
We first analyze pre-unification similarities and differences between the two Germanys and the two Koreas in terms of demographic, social, political and economic status. An important issue is the degree of international openness. “Stone-age” type communism of North Korea and the seclusion of the population prevented inner-Korean contacts and contacts with rest of the world. This may create enormous adjustment costs if institutions, especially informal institutions, change. We go on by showing how transition and integration interact in a potential unification process based on the World Bank Revised Minimum Standard Model (RMSM) and on the Salter-Swan-Meade model. In doing so, we relate the macro and external impacts on an open economy to its macro-sectoral structural dynamics. The findings suggest that it is of utmost importance to relate microeconomic policies to the macroeconomic ties and side conditions for both parts of the country. Evidence from Germany suggests that the biggest general error in unification was neglecting these limits, especially limitations to policy instruments. Econometric analysis supports these findings. In the empirical part, we consider unification as an “investment” and track down the (by-and-large immediate to medium-term) costs and the (by-and-large long-term) benefits of retooling a retarded communist economy. We conclude that, from a South-Korean
perspective, the Korean unification will become relatively much more expensive than the German unification and, thus, not only economic, but to a much larger degree political considerations must include the tying of neighboring countries into the convergence process. We finally provide, 62 years after Germany’s division and 20 years after unification, an outlook on the strength of economic inertia in order to show that it may take much more than a generation to compensate the damage inflicted by the communist system.
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Knowledge Sharing Through Informal Networking: An Overview and Agenda
Michael Schwartz, Christoph Hornych
International Journal of Knowledge-Based Development,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
Informal inter-organizational networks provide manifold opportunities to organize the transfer of information, knowledge and technology between actors. The importance of informal networks as a channel of knowledge transfer is widely acknowledged by academics and practitioners. However, there is a significant lack of discussion on their theoretical foundations and systematic empirical research on the origins, dynamics and effects of informal networking. The objective of this paper is threefold. First, we review the fragmented academic discussion of the notion of informal networking, thereby focusing on how these relationships emerge initially and what conditions (presumably) are required to make them a mutually fruitful and sustainable channel of the transfer of information and knowledge. Second, we give an up-to-date overview over most important and recent studies trying to disentangle the mechanisms of inter-organizational informal networking. Finally, we outline an agenda of future research directions which we encourage researchers to pursue in future empirical studies. Overall, six important research gaps are identified.
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Identifying Industrial Clusters from a Multidimensional Perspective: Methodical Aspects with an Application to Germany
Matthias Brachert, Mirko Titze, Alexander Kubis
Papers in Regional Science,
No. 2,
2011
Abstract
If regional development agencies assume the cluster concept to be an adequate framework to promote regional growth and competitiveness, it is necessary to identify industrial clusters in a comprehensive manner. Previous studies used a diversity of methods to identify the predominant concentrations of economic activity in one industrial sector in a region. This paper is based on a multidimensional approach developed by Titze et al. With the help of the combination of concentration measures and input–output methods they were able to identify horizontal and vertical dimensions of industrial clusters. This paper aims to refine this approach by using a superior measure of spatial concentration and by integrating information about spatial interdependence of industrial cluster structures to contribute to a more adequate framework for industrial cluster identification.
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Macroeconomic Challenges in the Euro Area and the Acceding Countries
Katja Drechsel
Dissertation, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universität Osnabrück,
2010
Abstract
deutscher Titel: Makroökonomische Herausforderungen für die Eurozone und die Beitrittskandidaten
Abstract: The conduct of effective economic policy faces a multiplicity of macroeconomic challenges, which requires a wide scope of theoretical and empirical analyses. With a focus on the European Union, this doctoral dissertation consists of two parts which make empirical and methodological contributions to the literature on forecasting real economic activity and on the analysis of business cycles in a boom-bust framework in the light of the EMU enlargement. In the first part, we tackle the problem of publication lags and analyse the role of the information flow in computing short-term forecasts up to one quarter ahead for the euro area GDP and its main components. A huge dataset of monthly indicators is used to estimate simple bridge equations. The individual forecasts are then pooled, using different weighting schemes. To take into consideration the release calendar of each indicator, six forecasts are compiled successively during the quarter. We find that the sequencing of information determines the weight allocated to each block of indicators, especially when the first month of hard data becomes available. This conclusion extends the findings of the recent literature. Moreover, when combining forecasts, two weighting schemes are found to outperform the equal weighting scheme in almost all cases. In the second part, we focus on the potential accession of the new EU Member States in Central and Eastern Europe to the euro area. In contrast to the discussion of Optimum Currency Areas, we follow a non-standard approach for the discussion on abandonment of national currencies the boom-bust theory. We analyse whether evidence for boom-bust cycles is given and draw conclusions whether these countries should join the EMU in the near future. Using a broad range of data sets and empirical methods we document credit market imperfections, comprising asymmetric financing opportunities across sectors, excess foreign currency liabilities and contract enforceability problems both at macro and micro level. Furthermore, we depart from the standard analysis of comovements of business cycles among countries and rather consider long-run and short-run comovements across sectors. While the results differ across countries, we find evidence for credit market imperfections in Central and Eastern Europe and different sectoral reactions to shocks. This gives favour for the assessment of the potential euro accession using this supplementary, non-standard approach.
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Analyzing Innovation Drivers in the German Laser Industry: the Role of Positioning in the Social and Geographical Space
Muhamed Kudic, Peter Bönisch, Iciar Dominguez Lacasa
Abstract
Empirical and theoretical contributions provide strong evidence that firm-level performance outcomes in terms of innovativeness can either be determined by the firm’s position in the social space (network effects) or by the firm’s position in the geographical space (co-location effects). Even though we can observe quite recently first attempts in bringing together these traditionally distinct research streams (Whittington et al. 2009), research on interdependent network and geographical co-location effects is still rare. Consequently, we seek to answer the following research question: considering that the effects of social and geographic proximity on firm’s innovativeness can be interdependent, what are the distinct and combined effects of firm’s network and geographic position on firm-level innovation output? We analyze the innovative performance of German laser source manufacturers between 1995 and 2007. We use an official database on publicly funded R&D collaboration projects in order to construct yearly networks and analyze firm’s network positions. Based on information on population entries and exits we calculate various types of geographical proximity measures between private sector and public research organizations (PRO). We use patent grants as dependent variable in order to measure firm-level innovation output. Empirical results provide evidence for distinct effect of network degree centrality. Distinct effect of firm’s geographical co-location to laser-related public research organization promotes patenting activity. Results on combined network and co-location effects confirms partially the existence of in-terdependent proximity effects, even though a closer look at these effects reveals some ambiguous but quite interesting findings.
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Informal Social Networks and Spatial Mobility
Peter Bönisch, Lutz Schneider
Post-Communist Economies,
2010
Abstract
Die Präferenzen von Individuen in Transformationsregionen sind immer noch durch Prägungen des früheren sozialistischen Systems bestimmt. Diese These der sozialistischen Prägung wird im Beitrag getestet, indem untersucht wird, ob sich ein Einfluss der Sozialisation in einem solchen System auf die Akkumulation von Sozialkapital und, als Konsequenz, auf die Präferenzen für räumliche Mobilität nachweisen lässt. Gegenstand der Analyse ist der paradigmatische Fall Ostdeutschlands, wo die Mobilitätsneigung deutlich geringer zu sein scheint als im westlichen Teil. Auf Grundlage einer IV ordered probit Schätzung wird erstens belegt, dass Ostdeutsche, sofern sie im Sozialismus aufgewachsen sind, stärker in lokal gebundenes informelles Sozialkapital investiert sind. Zweitens bestätigt sich die These, dass eine Partizipation in derartigen Netzwerken die Mobilitätspräferenz verringert. Drittens zeigt sich, dass sich nach Kontrolle dieses Netzwerkeffektes der Mobilitätsrückstand der Ostdeutschen substantiell verringert. Die eher geringe räumliche Mobilität der ostdeutschen Bevölkerung erscheint daher zu einem erheblichen Teil den typischen Sozialkapitalmustern post-sozialistischer Gesellschaften geschuldet zu sein.
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