Central Banks, Trade Unions and Reputation – Is there Room for an Expansionist Manoeuvre in the European Union?
Toralf Pusch, A. Heise
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics,
2010
Abstract
Seit der Gründung der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion hat sich am Problem der hohen Arbeitslosigkeit in der Eurozone wenig geändert. Der überwiegenden Sichtweise zufolge ist dies vor allem auf dysfunktionale Arbeitsmärkte zurückzuführen. In diesem Beitrag gehen wir der Frage nach, welche Änderungen sich ergeben können, wenn Gewerkschaften und Zentralbank in einem Klima der Unsicherheit zwischen verschiedenen Optionen wählen können. Das wahrscheinlichste Ergebnis im einstufigen Spiel ist eine hohe Arbeitslosenquote. Bei einer Wiederholung des Spiels können sich die Ergebnisse deutlich ändern. Dies wird allerdings dann unwahrscheinlich, wenn die Zentralbank ein außerordentlich hohes Gewicht auf Preisstabilität legt. Zweitens erfordert ein Vollbeschäftigungs-Gleichgewicht ein Mindestmaß an Kooperationsbereitschaft bzw. Koordinierungspotential auf Seiten der Gewerkschaften.
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Money and Inflation: Consequences of the Recent Monetary Policy
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
Journal of Policy Modeling,
No. 4,
2013
Abstract
We use a multivariate state space framework to analyze the short run impact of money on prices in the United States. The key contribution of this approach is that it allows to identify the impact of money growth on inflation without having to model money demand explicitly.
Using our results, that provide evidence for a substantial impact of money on prices in the US, we analyze the consequences of the Fed's response to the financial crisis. Our results indicate a raise of US inflation above 5% for more than a decade. Alternative exit strategies that we simulate cannot fully compensate for the monetary pressure without risking serious repercussions on the real economy. Further simulations of a double dip in the United States indicate that a repetition of the unusually expansive monetary policy – in addition to increased inflation – might cause growth losses exceeding the contemporary easing of the crisis.
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Potential Effects of Basel II on the Transmission from Currency Crises to Banking Crises – The Case of South Korea
Tobias Knedlik, Johannes Ströbel
Journal of Money,
No. 13,
2010
Abstract
In this paper we evaluate potential effects of the Basel II accord on preventing the transmission from currency crises to banking crises by analyzing the South Korean crisis of 1997. We show that regulatory capital reserves under Basel II would have been lower than those under Basel I, and that therefore Basel II would have had adverse effects on the development of the crisis. Furthermore we investigate whether the behavior of rating agencies has changed since the East Asian crisis. We find no evidence that rating agencies have started to take micro-mismatches into account. Thus, we have reservations concerning the effectiveness of Basel II.
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Effects of Incorrect Specification on the Finite Sample Properties of Full and Limited Information Estimators in DSGE Models
Sebastian Giesen, Rolf Scheufele
Journal of Macroeconomics,
June
2016
Abstract
In this paper we analyze the small sample properties of full information and limited information estimators in a potentially misspecified DSGE model. Therefore, we conduct a simulation study based on a standard New Keynesian model including price and wage rigidities. We then study the effects of omitted variable problems on the structural parameter estimates of the model. We find that FIML performs superior when the model is correctly specified. In cases where some of the model characteristics are omitted, the performance of FIML is highly unreliable, whereas GMM estimates remain approximately unbiased and significance tests are mostly reliable.
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Women Move Differently: Job Separations and Gender
Boris Hirsch, Claus Schnabel
Journal of Labor Research,
No. 4,
2012
Abstract
Using a large German linked employer–employee data set and methods of competing risks analysis, this paper investigates gender differences in job separation rates to employment and nonemployment. In line with descriptive evidence, we find lower job-to-job and higher job-to-nonemployment transition probabilities for women than men when controlling for individual and workplace characteristics and unobserved plant heterogeneity. These differences vanish once we allow these characteristics to affect separations differently by gender. When additionally controlling for wages, we find that both separation rates are considerably lower and also significantly less wage-elastic for women than for men, suggesting an interplay of gender differences in transition behaviour and the gender pay gap.
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The Diffusion of Microgeneration Technologies. Assessing the Influence of Perceived Product Characteristics on Home Owners' Willingness to Pay
Marius Claudy, Claus Michelsen, A. O´Driscol
Energy Policy,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
This study presents empirical insight into willingness to pay (WTP) for microgeneration technologies and the relative influence of subjective consumer perceptions. First, we apply a double-bounded-contingent valuation method to elicit Irish home owners’ willingness to pay for micro wind turbines, wood pellet boilers, solar panels and solar water heaters. Utilizing findings from the adoption of innovation literature, in a second step, we assess the influence of different antecedents on WTP for each of the four technologies, including (1) home owners’ perception of product characteristics, (2) normative influences, and (3) socio demographic characteristics. Our results show that WTP varies significantly between the four technologies. More importantly, however, home owners’ hold different beliefs about the respective technologies, which significantly influence their WTP. The results provide valuable information for marketers and policy makers, aiming to promote microgeneration technologies more effectively in consumer markets.
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Interest Rate Convergence in the Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields
Hubert Gabrisch, Lucjan T. Orlowski
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,
2010
Abstract
We argue that a “static“ specification of the Maastricht criterion for long-term bond yields is not conducive to assessing stability of financial systems in euro-candidate countries. Instead, we advocate a dynamic approach to assessing interest rate convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we empirically test volatility dynamics of the ten-year sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields during the January 2, 2001-January 22, 2009, sample period. Our results show a varied degree of the relationship between domestic and eurozone sovereign bond yields, the most pronounced for the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Poland, and weaker for Hungary and Slovakia. We find some divergence of relative bond yields since the EU accession.
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Innovation and Skills from a Sectoral Perspective: A Linked Employer-Employee Analysis
Lutz Schneider, Jutta Günther, Bianca Brandenburg
Economics of Innovation and New Technology,
2010
Abstract
Natur- und ingenieurwissenschaftliche Fähigkeiten sowie Management- und Führungskompetenzen werden häufig als Quelle von betrieblichen Innovationsaktivitäten betrachtet. Der vorliegende Artikel untersucht die Rolle von Humankapital im Sinne des formalen Bildungsabschlusses und des tatsächlich ausgeübten Berufes für die betriebliche Innovationstätigkeit im Rahmen eines Probit-Ansatzes, wobei zwischen sektoralen Innovationsregimen unterschieden wird. Die Analyse basiert auf einem Mikrodatensatz deutscher Betriebe (LIAB), welcher detaillierte Informationen über die Innovationsaktivitäten und die Qualifikation der Beschäftigten, verstanden als formaler Ausbildungsabschluss, ausgeübter Beruf und Erfahrung, enthält. Es zeigen sich signifikante Unterschiede der Humankapitalausstattung zwischen Sektoren, welche nach der Pavitt-Klassifikation unterschieden wurden. Sektoren mit einem hohen Anteil hochqualifizierter Beschäftigter sind überdurchschnittlich oft unter den Produktinnovatoren zu finden (spezialisierte Zulieferer und wissenschaftsbezogene Branchen). Indes lassen sich in den realisierten Regressionen keine signifikant positiven Effekte der Beschäftigtenqualifikation auf die Innovationstätigkeit eines Betriebes nachweisen.
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Limited Investor Attention and the Mispricing of American Depositary Receipts
Stefan Eichler
Economics Letters,
No. 3,
2012
Abstract
I test whether more investor attention leads to a better exploitation of arbitrage opportunities and, in turn, to less mispricing of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Using data on 536 stocks I find that more investor attention significantly reduces ADR mispricing.
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Protect and Survive? Did Capital Controls Help Shield Emerging Markets from the Crisis?
Makram El-Shagi
Economics Bulletin,
No. 1,
2012
Abstract
Using a new dataset on capital market regulation, we analyze whether capital controls helped protect emerging markets from the real economic consequences of the 2009 financial and economic crisis. The impact of the crisis is measured by the 2009 forecast error of a panel state space model, which analyzes the business cycle dynamics of 63 middle-income countries. We find that neither capital controls in general nor controls that were specifically targeted to derivatives (that played a crucial role during the crisis) helped shield economies. However, banking regulation that limits the exposure of banks to global risks has been highly successful.
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