Politische Determinanten staatlicher Ausfallrisiken
Stefan Eichler
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2017
Abstract
Staatliche Zahlungsausfälle haben nicht selten politische Ursachen. Während ökonomische Rahmenbedingungen wie etwa Wirtschaftswachstum, Finanzstabilität oder globale Investorenstimmungen die Zahlungsfähigkeit eines Staates beeinflussen, wird die tatsächliche Rückzahlung von Staatsschulden letztendlich von der einheimischen Regierung entschieden. Die Zahlungswilligkeit einer Regierung spielt daher eine entscheidende Rolle für das Risiko eines staatlichen Zahlungsausfalls. In diesem Artikel wird der Einfluss politischer Faktoren auf das staatliche Ausfallrisiko für 27 Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer im Zeitraum von 1996 bis 2009 untersucht. Die Auswertung von Anleihedaten zeigt, dass Investoren ein höheres Ausfallrisiko fürchten, falls ein Land politisch instabil ist oder von einer Rechts- bzw. Linkspartei regiert wird. Der Einfluss politischer Faktoren auf das staatliche Ausfallrisiko eines Landes sinkt mit dessen Grad an Demokratie und Integration in die Weltwirtschaft.
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Trade Union Membership and Paid Vacation in Germany
Laszlo Goerke, Sabrina Jeworrek, Markus Pannenberg
IZA Journal of Labor Economics,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
In Germany, dependent employees take almost 30 days of paid vacation annually. We enquire whether an individual’s trade union membership affects the duration of vacation. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the period 1985 to 2010 and employing pooled OLS-estimators, we find that being a union member goes along with almost one additional day of vacation per year. Estimations exploiting the panel structure of our data suggest that a smaller part of this vacation differential can be due to the union membership status, while self-selection effects play a more important role.
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Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland: Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie
Stefan Eichler, B. Grundig, C. Pohl, Lutz Schneider, Marcel Thum, Harald Lehmann, Joachim Ragnitz, Helmut Seitz
ifo Dresden Studien, Nr. 41,
No. 41,
2007
Abstract
In den neuen Bundesländern wird die Bevölkerung auch in den kommenden Jahren weiter massiv schrumpfen. Dieser absehbare Rückgang der Bevölkerung und die damit einhergehende Alterung kann die gesamtwirtschaftliche Dynamik dämpfen. Aus diesem Grund wurde im Auftrag des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums eine Studie zu den Implikationen der demographischen Entwicklung in den neuen Bundesländern erarbeitet. Mit Blick auf den Arbeitsmarkt wurden mehrere Simulationsrechnungen bis zum Jahr 2020 durchgeführt, die zeigen, dass die zukünftige Arbeitsmarktsituation durch zwei gleichgerichtete Entwicklungen geprägt sein wird. Einerseits vermindert sich das Arbeitsangebot, andererseits führt die demographische Entwicklung auch zu einer Reduktion der Arbeitsnachfrage im Sektor nicht-handelbarer Güter. Wie sich der Arbeitsmarkt für die einzelnen Qualifikationsstufen entwickeln wird, hängt wesentlich von der Lohnentwicklung ab. Die relative Knappheit bei Hochqualifizierten dürfte auf Dauer zu Lohnsteigerungen führen, während bei anhaltender Arbeitslosigkeit in den übrigen Arbeitsmarktsegmenten kein Lohndruck nach oben entsteht.
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Does the Plant Size–wage Differential Increase with Tenure? Affirming Evidence from German Panel Data
Daniel Fackler, Thorsten Schank, Claus Schnabel
Economics Letters,
2015
Abstract
We show that the major part of the plant size–wage premium in Germany is reflected in different wage growth patterns in plants of different size. This is consistent with the hypothesis that large firms ‘produce’ more skilled workers over time.
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Smuggling Illegal Goods Across the US–Mexico Border: A Political-economy Perspective
A. Buehn, Stefan Eichler
Applied Economics Letters,
No. 12,
2012
Abstract
We analyse the impact that political business cycles and party preferences have on smuggling illegal goods across the US–Mexico border during the years 1980–2004. We find that smuggling is significantly reduced prior to Congressional elections – but only if the incumbent President is Republican.
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The Distorting Impact of Capital Controls
Makram El-Shagi
German Economic Review,
No. 1,
2012
Abstract
This paper uses panel data to show that capital controls have a significant impact on international interest rate differentials. Various types of controls can be distinguished within the data. The analysis shows that the aforementioned effects of capital controls on interest rates are especially strong in the case of capital import controls on portfolio capital; the implementation of these controls has been suggested in the wake of the Asian Crisis to prevent further crises. The results presented herein contradict the hypothesis that capital controls can achieve a restructuring of the maturity of capital inflows without a distortion in international capital allocation.
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The Effects of Building Energy Codes in Rental Housing: The German Experience
Claus Michelsen, Sebastian Rosenschon
Economics Bulletin,
No. 4,
2012
Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of building energy codes on housings' real energy consumption. We argue that building codes should have a twofold effect: lower levels of energy consumption after its implementation and decreasing energy requirements over time, because tighter building codes induce technical progress in the construction sector. We find evidence for both aspects. Based on a large and unique sample of energy certificates from Germany, this study is the first that deals with the empirical effects of energy efficiency standards in apartment/rental housing. Moreover, it is the first, which includes different stages of regulation.
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The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster's Perspective
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Kredit und Kapital,
No. 1,
2012
Abstract
This paper analyses the recession in 2008/2009 in Germany. This recession is very different from previous recessions in particular regarding their causes and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail to detect the timing and the magnitude of the recession. This study shows that large forecast errors for both expert forecasts and forecasts based on leading indicators resulted during this recession which implies that the recession was very difficult to forecast. However, some leading indicators (survey data, risk spreads, stock prices) have indicated an economic downturn and hence, beat univariate time series models. Although the combination of individual forecasts provides an improvement compared to the benchmark model, the combined forecasts are worse than several individual models. A comparison of expert forecasts withthe best forecasts based on leading indicators shows only minor deviations. Overall, the range for an improvement of expert forecasts in the crisis compared to indicator forecasts is small.
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The Synchronization of Wage Dynamics across EMU Members: A Test of the Endogeneity Hypothesis
Herbert S. Buscher, Hubert Gabrisch
Empirica,
No. 3,
2012
Abstract
We test the hypothesis of an endogenous currency area for the labor market of the Euro area: has the introduction of a common currency caused wage dynamics to become more synchronized and to be able to cushion for asymmetric shocks? Trade intensity, sector specialization and financial integration are tested for being the driving forces for the endogenous synchronization of wage dynamics. We use regression techniques with instrument variables, and find evidence of persistent asymmetries in nominal wage formation, despite a single currency and monetary policy. We explain the result with more specialization following financial integration, and with still existing differences in wage formation and labor market institutions. We conclude that the euro zone is not endogenous with respect to wage formation. Rather, there are incentives for beggar-thy-neighbor policies in the Euro area.
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The Determinants of Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Business Services Across European Regions
Davide Castellani
Finanza e Statistica 104/2012,
2012
Abstract
The paper accounts for the determinants of inward foreign direct investment in business services across the EU-27 regions. Together with the traditional variables considered in the literature (market size, market quality, agglomeration economies, labour cost, technology, human capital), we focus on the role of forward linkages with manufacturing sectors and other service sectors as
attractors of business services FDI at the regional level. This hypothesis is based on the evidence that the growth of business services is mostly due to increasing intermediate demand by other services industries and by manufacturing industries and on the importance of geographical proximity for forward linkages in services.
To our knowledge, there are no studies investigating the role of forward linkages for the location of FDI. This paper aims therefore to fill this gap and add to the FDI literature by providing a picture of the specificities of the determinants of FDI in business services at the regional level. The empirical analysis draws upon the database fDi Markets, from which we selected projects having as a destination NUTS 2 European regions in the sectors of Business services over the period 2003-2008. Data on FDI have been matched with data drawn from the Eurostat Regio
database. Forward linkages have been constructed using the OECD Input/Output database. By estimating a negative binomial model, we find that regions specialised in those (manufacturing) sectors that are high potential users of business services attract more FDI than other regions. This confirms the role of forward linkages for the localisation of business service FDI, particularly in the case of manufacturing.
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