Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration
Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, William R. Kerr
NBER Macroeconomics Annual,
2015
Abstract
How small shocks are amplified and propagated through the economy to cause sizable fluctuations is at the heart of much macroeconomic research. Potential mechanisms that have been proposed range from investment and capital accumulation responses in real business-cycle models (e.g., Kydland and Prescott 1982) to Keynesian multipliers (e.g., Diamond 1982; Kiyotaki 1988; Blanchard and Kiyotaki 1987; Hall 2009; Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Rebelo 2011); to credit market frictions facing firms, households, or banks (e.g., Bernanke and Gertler 1989; Kiyotaki and Moore 1997; Guerrieri and Lorenzoni 2012; Mian, Rao, and Sufi 2013); to the role of real and nominal rigidities and their interplay (Ball and Romer 1990); and to the consequences of (potentially inappropriate or constrained) monetary policy (e.g., Friedman and Schwartz 1971; Eggertsson and Woodford 2003; Farhi and Werning 2013).
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Im Fokus: Industrielle Kerne in Ostdeutschland und wie es dort heute aussieht – Das Beispiel des Chemiestandorts Bitterfeld-Wolfen
Gerhard Heimpold
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2015
Abstract
Der Erhalt industrieller Kerne war eines der wirtschaftspolitischen Ziele beim Aufbau Ost. Einer dieser Kerne ist der Chemiestandort Bitterfeld-Wolfen in Sachsen-Anhalt. Der Beitrag untersucht, wie es nach 25 Jahren Deutscher Einheit um diesen industriellen Kern bestellt ist. In einem Satz: Der Kern ist nicht mehr der alte. Die Kombinate der Großchemie waren als Ganzes nicht privatisierbar. An ihre Stelle sind moderne mittelständische Chemiebetriebe getreten. Daneben haben sich neue Branchen, etwa die Glasindustrie, angesiedelt, und in Gestalt einer attraktiven Seenlandschaft ist aus den Braunkohlentagebauen etwas völlig Neues entstanden. Bei den Forschungsaktivitäten kann die Region aber mit westdeutschen Verhältnissen nicht mithalten. Die vielleicht größte künftige Herausforderung wird in einer demographisch bedingt rückläufigen Erwerbspersonenzahl liegen.
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A Review of Empirical Research on the Design and Impact of Regulation in the Banking Sector
Sanja Jakovljević, Hans Degryse, Steven Ongena
Annual Review of Financial Economics,
2015
Abstract
We review existing empirical research on the design and impact of regulation in the banking sector. The impact of each individual piece of regulation may inexorably depend on the set of regulations already in place, the characteristics of the banks involved (from their size or ownership structure to operational idiosyncrasies in terms of capitalization levels or risk-taking behavior), and the institutional development of the country where the regulation is introduced. This complexity is challenging for the econometrician, who relies either on single-country data to identify challenges for regulation or on cross-country data to assess the overall effects of regulation. It is also troubling for the policy maker, who has to optimally design regulation to avoid any unintended consequences, especially those that vary over the credit cycle such as the currently developing macroprudential frameworks.
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26.11.2015 • 43/2015
Political lendings of German Savings Banks
A recent paper of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) suggests that German local politicians take advantage of their influence on the credit decisions of German savings banks. “German savings banks on average increase the supply of commercial loans by €7.6 million in the year of a local election”, says IWH president Reint E. Gropp. Loans that the savings banks generate during election years also perform worse and lead to lower interest income. The results suggest that local politicians take advantage of savings banks to further their chances of re-election.
Reint E. Gropp
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Research Explorer – Technical Documentation of Routines
Wilfried Ehrenfeld
IWH Technical Reports,
No. 3,
2015
Abstract
Der Research Explorer ist ein von der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) und der Deutschen Akademischen Austauschdienstes (DAAD) zur Verfügung gestelltes Verzeichnis von Instituten an deutschen Hochschulen sowie außeruniversitäre Forschungseinrichtungen. Er steht kostenlos zum Download bereit und umfasst ca. 23.000 Einträge. Uns liegen zwei verschiedene Abzüge dieses Verzeichnisses vor, die sich jedoch in Abdeckung und Tiefe unterscheiden. Die eine Version umfasst 1712 Einträge, die andere über 22.000.
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RegDemo: Preparation and Merger of Actor Data – Technical Documentation of Routines and Datasets
Wilfried Ehrenfeld
IWH Technical Reports,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
Übergeordnetes Ziel der hier vorgestellten Routinen ist die Abbildung von Kooperationsbeziehungen von Unternehmen, Universitäten, außeruniversitären Forschungseinrichtung sowie sonstiger Institutionen auf drei Ebenen von Innovationstätigkeit (Verbundprojekte; Publikationen; Patente). Dazu werden a) die drei innovationsbezogenen Datenbanken (Förderkatalog; Web of Knowledge; DPMA Patente) vereinheitlicht und zusammengeführt sowie b) diese kombinierten Datenbestände mittels Record-Linkage-Techniken mit den Daten aus den Institutionendatensätzen Amadeus und Research Explorer verknüpft. Die Zusammenführung erstreckt sich für dieses Projekt auf die sechs Fallregionen, die in RegDemo vorgesehen sind. Die Abgrenzung erfolgt anhand von Raumordnungsregionen: 501 - Aachen; 513 - Siegen; 602 - Nordhessen (= „Kassel“); 1302 – Mittleres Mecklenburg/Rostock (= „Rostock“); 1401 - Oberes Elbtal/Osterzgebirge (= „Dresden“); 1504 - Magdeburg.
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Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information
Christiane Baumeister, James D. Hamilton
Econometrica,
No. 5,
2015
Abstract
This paper makes the following original contributions to the literature. (i) We develop a simpler analytical characterization and numerical algorithm for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions (VARs) that can be used for models that are overidentified, just‐identified, or underidentified. (ii) We analyze the asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference and show that in the underidentified case, the asymptotic posterior distribution of contemporaneous coefficients in an n‐variable VAR is confined to the set of values that orthogonalize the population variance–covariance matrix of ordinary least squares residuals, with the height of the posterior proportional to the height of the prior at any point within that set. For example, in a bivariate VAR for supply and demand identified solely by sign restrictions, if the population correlation between the VAR residuals is positive, then even if one has available an infinite sample of data, any inference about the demand elasticity is coming exclusively from the prior distribution. (iii) We provide analytical characterizations of the informative prior distributions for impulse‐response functions that are implicit in the traditional sign‐restriction approach to VARs, and we note, as a special case of result (ii), that the influence of these priors does not vanish asymptotically. (iv) We illustrate how Bayesian inference with informative priors can be both a strict generalization and an unambiguous improvement over frequentist inference in just‐identified models. (v) We propose that researchers need to explicitly acknowledge and defend the role of prior beliefs in influencing structural conclusions and we illustrate how this could be done using a simple model of the U.S. labor market.
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Support for Public Research Spin-offs by the Parent Organizations and the Speed of Commercialization
Viktor Slavtchev, D. Göktepe-Hultén
Abstract
We empirically analyze whether support by the parent organization in the early (nascent and seed) stage speeds up the process of commercialization and helps spin-offs from public research organizations generate first revenues sooner. To identify the impact of support by the parent organization, we apply multivariate regression techniques as well as an instrumental variable approach. Our results show that support in the early stage by the parent organization can speed up commercialization. Moreover, we identify two distinct channels - the help in developing a business plan and in acquiring external capital - through which support by the parent organization can enable spin-offs to generate first revenues sooner.
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24.09.2015 • 38/2015
German Households Benefit from Low Interest Environment
Calculations of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association show that the average household in Germany has benefited from the low policy rate environment. The average return on their portfolio was higher than in the pre-crisis period while at the same time, they benefited from lower interest on new loans. Households in Germany had a total Euro benefit of more than 364 billion Euro over a five-year period relative to 2003 to 2007. Increases in stock prices and real estate prices over-compensate lower interest rates on savings accounts, despite their relatively low share in households’ portfolios. There are benefits across the income distribution. Households that do not own real estate lost though, but their losses are very small at on average about 100 Euro per year.
Reint E. Gropp
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09.09.2015 • 34/2015
Interest Benefits from the Debt Crisis to the German Budget: Updated Calculations
In an updated calculation, IWH researchers could provide further evidence that interest benefits to the German budget arise indeed also from the “flight-to-safety-effect” and are not just effects from the low interest environment more generally. With a refined methodology they obtain interest savings to the German budget of just under 90 billion Euro.
Reint E. Gropp
Oliver Holtemöller
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