The Effect of the Iraq War on Foreign Bank Lending to the MENA Region
H. Evren Damar
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,
No. 5,
2007
Abstract
This paper examines whether a large geopolitical event, such as the war in Iraq, can affect foreign bank lending from developed countries to emerging markets. Using country-level data, the paper analyzes the effects of economic shocks and the Iraq war on the availability of foreign bank credit to five countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The war has had a nonuniform effect on foreign banks: Although the war has led to higher U.S. lending, it has also discouraged British and Italian banks from lending to the region. Implications concerning the stability and reliability of foreign bank credit in the face of increased geopolitical risks are identified and discussed.
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Slippery Slopes of Stress: Ordered Failure Events in German Banking
Thomas Kick, Michael Koetter
Journal of Financial Stability,
No. 2,
2007
Abstract
Outright bank failures without prior indication of financial instability are very rare. In fact, banks can be regarded as troubled to varying degrees before outright closure. But failure studies usually neglect the ordinal nature of bank distress. We distinguish four different kinds of increasingly severe events on the basis of the distress database of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Only the worst distress event entails a bank to exit the market. Since the four categories of hazard functions are not proportional, we specify a generalized ordered logit model to estimate respective probabilities of distress simultaneously. We find that the likelihood of ordered distress events changes differently in response to given changes in the financial profiles of banks. Consequently, bank failure studies should account more explicitly for the different shades of distress. This allows an assessment of the relative importance of financial profile components for different degrees of bank distress.
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Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System
Hans Degryse, Grégory Nguyen
International Journal of Central Banking,
No. 2,
2007
Abstract
Robust (cross-border) interbank markets are important for the proper functioning of modern financial systems. However, a network of interbank exposures may lead to domino effects following the event of an initial bank failure. We investigate the evolution and determinants of contagion risk for the Belgian banking system over the period 1993–2002 using detailed information on aggregate interbank exposures of individual banks, large bilateral interbank exposures, and cross-border interbank exposures. The "structure" of the interbank market affects contagion risk. We find that a change from a complete structure (where all banks have symmetric links) toward a "multiplemoney-center" structure (where money centers are symmetrically linked to otherwise disconnected banks) has decreased the risk and impact of contagion. In addition, an increase in the relative importance of cross-border interbank exposures has lowered local contagion risk. However, this reduction may have been compensated by an increase in contagion risk stemming from foreign banks.
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Lower Firm-Specific Productivity Levels in East Germany and East European Industrial Branches: The Role of Managerial Factors
Johannes Stephan
Germany’s Economic Performance: From Unification to Euroization,
2007
Abstract
During the socialist era, companies in East Germany became much weaker than firms in West Germany in terms of technology and competitiveness. In large part, this may be rooted in the different incentive structures of the two systems: whereas in the West, the criterion for companies’ success was their ability to remain in business and generate income in a contestable market environment, firms in the East were required to fulfil a plan to which they were subjected without having their opinions considered.
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Bank Lending, Bank Capital Regulation and Efficiency of Corporate Foreign Investment
Diemo Dietrich, Achim Hauck
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2007
Abstract
In this paper we study interdependencies between corporate foreign investment and the capital structure of banks. By committing to invest predominantly at home, firms can reduce the credit default risk of their lending banks. Therefore, banks can refinance loans to a larger extent through deposits thereby reducing firms’ effective financing costs. Firms thus have an incentive to allocate resources inefficiently as they then save on financing costs. We argue that imposing minimum capital adequacy for banks can eliminate this incentive by putting a lower bound on financing costs. However, the Basel II framework is shown to miss this potential.
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The role of banking portfolios in the transmission from the currency crises to banking crises - potential effects of Basel II
Tobias Knedlik, Johannes Ströbel
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 21,
2006
Abstract
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die möglichen Effekte der Basel II-Bankenregulierung auf die Transmission von Währungskrisen zu Bankenkrisen. Die Analyse des Beispiels Südkorea zeigt die wichtige Rolle der Unausgeglichenheit von Bankaktiva und -passiva in bezug auf deren Fristigkeit und Währung bei diesem Transmissionsprozess und stellt dar wie Basel II auf die Bankenbilanzen gewirkt hätte. Es wird gezeigt, dass die regulatorischen Kapitalanforderungen unter Basel II, aufgrund der guten Kreditratings im Vorfeld der Krise, geringer gewesen wären als unter Basel I. Dadurch wäre die Krise verschärft worden. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird analysiert, ob die Ratingagenturen ihr Verhalten seit dem Versagen bei der Prognose der Asienkrise geändert haben. Dieser Beitrag findet keine empirische Evidenz für eine Berücksichtigung der Unausgeglichenheit in den Bankenbilanzen bei der Ableitung von Ratingergebnissen für Länder. Deshalb muss die Effektivität von Basel II bei der Prävention der Transmission von Währungs- zu Bankenkrisen sowohl im Falle Südkoreas als auch bei möglichen zukünftigen Krisen angezweifelt werden.
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Banks’ Internationalization Strategies: The Role of Bank Capital Regulation
Diemo Dietrich, Uwe Vollmer
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 18,
2006
Abstract
This paper studies how capital requirements influence a bank’s mode of entry into foreign financial markets. We develop a model of an internationally operating bank that creates and allocates liquidity across countries and argue that the advantage of multinational banking over offering cross-border financial services depends on the benefit and the cost of intimacy with local markets. The benefit is that it allows to create more liquidity. The cost is that it causes inefficiencies in internal capital markets, on which a multinational bank relies to allocate liquidity across countries. Capital requirements affect this trade-off by influencing the degree of inefficiency in internal capital markets.
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Measurement Matters — Alternative Input Price Proxies for Bank Efficiency Analyses
Michael Koetter
Journal of Financial Services Research,
No. 2,
2006
Abstract
Most bank efficiency studies that use stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) employ each bank’s own implicit input price when estimating efficient frontiers. But at the same time, most studies are based on cost and/or profit models that assume perfect input markets. Traditional input price proxies therefore contain at least substantial measurement error. We suggest here two alternative input market definitions to approximate exogenous input prices. We have access to Bundesbank data, which allows us to cover virtually all German universal banks between 1993 and 2003. The use of alternative input price proxies leads to mean cost efficiency that is significantly five percentage points lower compared to traditional input prices. Mean profit efficiency is hardly affected. Across models, small cooperative banks located in large western states perform best while large banks and those located in eastern states rank lowest.
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Money and Credit Market Integration in an enlarging Euro Zone: Methodological Issues
Johannes Stephan, Jens Hölscher
European Economic Policies - Alteratives to Orthodox Analysis and Policy Concepts,
2006
Abstract
“The chapter discusses methodological issues of money and credit market integration within the context of an enlarging Euro area. Common methods of interest parity tests are rejected in favour of a comparison of nominal interest rates. Hölscher and Stephan find that from an institutional point of view the new EU member countries look under-banked, whereas interest rates are converging. As policy implication the paper argues for a Euro adoption of the new EU members rather sooner than later.“
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The Effects of Shared ATM Networks on the Efficiency of Turkish Banks
H. Evren Damar
Applied Economics,
No. 6,
2006
Abstract
This study investigates whether forming shared ATM networks has yielded positive benefits for banks in Turkey by increasing their productive efficiency. Using a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach, pure technical and scale efficiency scores of Turkish banks are estimated and analysed for the period 2000–2003. The results suggest that although it is possible to realize positive effects through ATM sharing arrangements, there are multiple factors that determine which banks realize such benefits. The geographical distribution of shared ATMs between urban and rural markets and the level of competition between banks within urban areas are shown to be important determinants of differences in bank efficiency. This discrepancy between the gains associated with ATM sharing may have important implications concerning the adoption and sharing of new technology by banks in developing countries.
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