Complex-task Biased Technological Change and the Labor Market
Colin Caines, Florian Hoffmann, Gueorgui Kambourov
Review of Economic Dynamics,
April
2017
Abstract
In this paper we study the relationship between task complexity and the occupational wage- and employment structure. Complex tasks are defined as those requiring higher-order skills, such as the ability to abstract, solve problems, make decisions, or communicate effectively. We measure the task complexity of an occupation by performing Principal Component Analysis on a broad set of occupational descriptors in the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) data. We establish four main empirical facts for the U.S. over the 1980–2005 time period that are robust to the inclusion of a detailed set of controls, subsamples, and levels of aggregation: (1) There is a positive relationship across occupations between task complexity and wages and wage growth; (2) Conditional on task complexity, routine-intensity of an occupation is not a significant predictor of wage growth and wage levels; (3) Labor has reallocated from less complex to more complex occupations over time; (4) Within groups of occupations with similar task complexity labor has reallocated to non-routine occupations over time. We then formulate a model of Complex-Task Biased Technological Change with heterogeneous skills and show analytically that it can rationalize these facts. We conclude that workers in non-routine occupations with low ability of solving complex tasks are not shielded from the labor market effects of automatization.
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11.04.2017 • 18/2017
The state as a pioneering customer: How public demand can drive private innovation
Especially in technology-intensive industries, demand from the state can expand private markets and create incentives for privately funded research and development, a new study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association shows.
Viktor Slavtchev
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Coping with Change: International Differences in the Returns to Skills
Eric A. Hanushek, Guido Schwerdt, Simon Wiederhold, Ludger Woessmann
Economics Letters,
April
2017
Abstract
International data from the PIAAC survey allow estimation of comparable labor-market returns to skills for 32 countries. Returns to skills are larger in faster growing economies, consistent with the hypothesis that skills are particularly important for adaptation to economic change.
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Konjunktur aktuell: Beschäftigungsboom in Deutschland – aber gesamtwirtschaftlich keine Überhitzung
Oliver Holtemöller, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Andrej Drygalla, Katja Heinisch, Martina Kämpfe, Konstantin Kiesel, Axel Lindner, Brigitte Loose, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Birgit Schultz, Matthias Wieschemeyer, Götz Zeddies
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 1,
2017
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist in recht guter Verfassung. So hält der Beschäftigungsaufbau an, und der private Konsum legt aufgrund steigender Realeinkommen robust zu. Die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen werden allerdings weiterhin nur verhalten ausgeweitet. Insgesamt expandiert die Nachfrage in etwa so schnell wie das Produktionspotenzial, und die Auslastung ist normal. Im Jahr 2017 dürfte die Zuwachsrate des Bruttoinlandsprodukts mit 1,3% nicht aufgrund einer schwächeren Konjunktur, sondern vor allem wegen einer geringeren Anzahl an Arbeitstagen niedriger als im Vorjahr ausfallen.
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Mind the Gap: The Difference Between U.S. and European Loan Rates
Tobias Berg, Anthony Saunders, Sascha Steffen, Daniel Streitz
Review of Financial Studies,
No. 3,
2017
Abstract
We analyze pricing differences between U.S. and European syndicated loans over the 1992–2014 period. We explicitly distinguish credit lines from term loans. For credit lines, U.S. borrowers pay significantly higher spreads, but lower fees, resulting in similar total costs of borrowing in both markets. Credit line usage is more cyclical in the United States, which provides a rationale for the pricing structure difference. For term loans, we analyze the channels of the cross-country loan price differential and document the importance of: the composition of term loan borrowers and the loan supply by institutional investors and foreign banks.
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Kommentar: Finanzforschung in Halle: Passt das?
Reint E. Gropp
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2017
Abstract
Das IWH hat in den letzten Jahren seine Kapazitäten in der Finanzforschung stark ausgebaut: Eine eigene Abteilung mit mehr als 20 Forschern wurde eingerichtet, darunter zwei W3- und demnächst vier W1-Professuren. Darüber hinaus stellt das IWH eine Datenbank und einen Forschungshub zum Thema „International Banking“ zur Verfügung. Andere Aktivitäten, zum Beispiel im Bereich Industrieökonomik oder Stadtökonomik, wurden deutlich reduziert, um Ressourcen für die neuen Aktivitäten freizumachen.
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Effekte der Frühphasenunterstützung von Gründungen aus öffentlichen Forschungseinrichtungen – Das Beispiel Max-Planck-Innovation
D. Göktepe-Hultén, Viktor Slavtchev
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2017
Abstract
Unternehmensgründungen durch Wissenschaftler werden als wichtiger Kanal zur Kommerzialisierung von Wissen und Technologien aus öffentlichen Forschungseinrichtungen und daher als Motor der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung angesehen. Jedoch fehlen Wissenschaftlern oft wichtige unternehmerische Fähigkeiten und Kapital, sodass sie auf Unterstützung angewiesen sind. Am Beispiel der Max-Planck-Gesellschaft in Deutschland wird hier untersucht, inwiefern Unterstützung durch die öffentliche Forschungseinrichtung für angehende Gründer in der Frühphase den Gründungs- und Kommerzialisierungsprozess beschleunigen kann. Die Max-Planck-Gesellschaft ist eine der weltweit führenden Einrichtungen im Bereich der Grundlagenforschung und verfügt zudem mit Max-Planck-Innovation über eine Transfereinheit, die dezidiert und erfolgreich die Kommerzialisierung von Forschungsergebnissen aus der Gesellschaft vorantreibt. Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung zeigen, dass die Unterstützung durch öffentliche Forschungseinrichtungen die frühe Erstellung eines tragfähigen Business-Plans und die frühe Akquise externen Kapitals fördert, sodass unterstützte Start-ups früher am Markt sind und Umsätze realisieren.
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09.03.2017 • 12/2017
Comment: Keep cool and be prepared – IWH president Gropp on the ECB’s interest rates decision
”The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged today. No surprise here. But Mario Draghi unfortunately did not provide a signal to markets that the ECB may be moving on interest rates in the foreseeable future. “This is a reasonable decision, but also a missed opportunity”, Reint E. Gropp, president of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association, says. “An ECB increase interest rate move must be well prepared, and today’s press conference would have been an opportunity to prepare markets for the fact that interest rates cannot stay where they are forever.”
Reint E. Gropp
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Banking Globalization, Local Lending, and Labor Market Effects: Micro-level Evidence from Brazil
Felix Noth, Matias Ossandon Busch
Abstract
This paper estimates the effect of a foreign funding shock to banks in Brazil after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Our robust results show that bank-specific shocks to Brazilian parent banks negatively affected lending by their individual branches and trigger real economic consequences in Brazilian municipalities: More affected regions face restrictions in aggregated credit and show weaker labor market performance in the aftermath which documents the transmission mechanism of the global financial crisis to local labor markets in emerging countries. The results represent relevant information for regulators concerned with the real effects of cross-border liquidity shocks.
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Inside Asset Purchase Programs: The Effects of Unconventional Policy on Banking Competition
Michael Koetter, Natalia Podlich, Michael Wedow
ECB Working Paper Series,
No. 2017,
2017
Abstract
We test if unconventional monetary policy instruments influence the competitive conduct of banks. Between q2:2010 and q1:2012, the ECB absorbed Euro 218 billion worth of government securities from five EMU countries under the Securities Markets Programme (SMP). Using detailed security holdings data at the bank level, we show that banks exposed to this unexpected (loose) policy shock mildly gained local loan and deposit market shares. Shifts in market shares are driven by banks that increased SMP security holdings during the lifetime of the program and that hold the largest relative SMP portfolio shares. Holding other securities from periphery countries that were not part of the SMP amplifies the positive market share responses. Monopolistic rents approximated by Lerner indices are lower for SMP banks, suggesting a role of the SMP to re-distribute market power differentially, but not necessarily banking profits.
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