Handelsschocks, Arbeitsmärkte und Wohlstand während der ersten Globalisierung
Richard Bräuer, Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, Felix Kersting
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2022
Abstract
Dieser Beitrag untersucht Deutschland in der ersten Globalisierung in den Jahrzehnten vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg. Damals erlebte das Deutsche Reich eine massive Zunahme von Getreideimporten aus Amerika. Wir vergleichen Landkreise, die auf die importierten Getreidesorten spezialisiert waren, mit Kreisen, die andere landwirtschaftliche Güter hergestellt haben. Unsere Resultate zeigen, dass viele Arbeitskräfte die Kreise verlassen, in denen vom Handelsschock betroffene Produkte hergestellt wurden. Allerdings bleiben die in modernen Volkswirtschaften beobachteten negativen Effekte auf Einkommen pro Kopf und Sterblichkeit aus, auch eine politische Radikalisierung findet nicht statt. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Migrationsbewegungen negative wirtschaftliche und in der Folge auch politische Auswirkungen abfedern. Damals verließen etwa viermal so viele Einwohner ihren Landkreis nach einem Handelsschock wie in vergleichbaren Situationen in den heutigen USA.
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The Financial Channel of Wage Rigidity
Benjamin Schoefer
Econometrics Laboratory (EML),
April
2022
Abstract
I propose a financial channel of wage rigidity. In recessions, rigid average wages squeeze cash flows, forcing firms to cut hiring due to financial constraints. Indeed, empirical cash flows and profits would turn acyclical if wages were only moderately more procyclical. I study this channel in a search and matching model with financial constraints and wage rigidity among incumbent workers (but flexible new hires’ wages). While neither feature generates amplification individually, their interaction can account for much of the empirical labor market fluctuations—breaking the neutrality of incumbents’ wages for hiring, and showing that financial amplification of business cycles requires wage rigidity.
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Does Working at a Start-up Pay Off?
Daniel Fackler, Lisa Hölscher, Claus Schnabel, Antje Weyh
Small Business Economics,
No. 4,
2022
Abstract
Using representative linked employer-employee data for Germany, this paper analyzes short- and long-run differences in labor market performance of workers joining start-ups instead of incumbent firms. Applying entropy balancing and following individuals over ten years, we find huge and long-lasting drawbacks from entering a start-up in terms of wages, yearly income, and (un)employment. These disadvantages hold for all groups of workers and types of start-ups analyzed. Although our analysis of different subsequent career paths highlights important heterogeneities, it does not reveal any strategy through which workers joining start-ups can catch up with the income of similar workers entering incumbent firms.
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The Urban Wage Premium in Imperfect Labour Markets
Boris Hirsch, Elke J. Jahn, Alan Manning, Michael Oberfichtner
Journal of Human Resources,
April
2022
Abstract
Using administrative data for West Germany, this paper investigates whether part of the urban wage premium stems from greater competition in denser labor markets. We show that employers possess less wage-setting power in denser markets. We further document that an important part of the observed urban wage premia can be explained by greater competition in denser labor markets.
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Micro-mechanisms behind Declining Labor Shares: Rising Market Power and Changing Modes of Production
Matthias Mertens
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
March
2022
Abstract
I derive a micro-founded framework showing how rising firm market power on product and labor markets and falling aggregate labor output elasticities provide three competing explanations for falling labor shares. I apply my framework to 20 years of German manufacturing sector micro data containing firm-specific price information to study these three distinct drivers of declining labor shares. I document a severe increase in firms’ labor market power, whereas firms’ product market power stayed comparably low. Changes in firm market power and a falling aggregate labor output elasticity each account for one half of the decline in labor's share.
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Globalization, Productivity Growth, and Labor Compensation
Christian Dreger, Marius Fourné, Oliver Holtemöller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 7,
2022
Abstract
We analyze how changes in international trade integration affect productivity and the functional income distribution. To account for endogeneity, we construct a leaveout measure for international trade integration for country-industry pairs using international input-output tables. Our findings corroborate on the country-industry level that international trade integration increases productivity. Moreover, we show that both trade in intermediate inputs and trade in value added is associated with lower labor shares in emerging markets. For advanced countries, we document a positive effect of trade in value added on the labor share of income. Further, we show that the effects on productivity and labor share are heterogeneous across different sectors. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results for a possible throwback in international trade integration due to experiences from recent crises.
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The Real Effects of Universal Banking: Does Access to the Public Debt Market Matter?
Stefano Colonnello
Journal of Financial Services Research,
February
2022
Abstract
I analyze the impact of the formation of universal banks on corporate investment by looking at the gradual dismantling of the Glass-Steagall Act’s separation between commercial and investment banking. Using a sample of US firms and their relationship banks, I show that firms curtail debt issuance and investment after positive shocks to the underwriting capacity of their main bank. This result is driven by unrated firms and is strongest immediately after a shock. These findings suggest that universal banks may pay more attention to large firms providing more underwriting opportunities while exacerbating financial constraints of opaque firms, in line with a shift to a banking model based on transactional lending.
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Banking Globalization, Local Lending, and Labor Market Effects: Micro-level Evidence from Brazil
Felix Noth, Matias Ossandon Busch
Journal of Financial Stability,
October
2021
Abstract
Recent financial crises have prompted the interest in understanding how banking globalization interacts with domestic institutions in shaping foreign shocks’ transmission. This paper uses regional banking data from Brazil to show that a foreign funding shock to banks negatively affects lending by their regional branches. This effect increases in the presence of frictions in internal capital markets, which affect branches’ capacity to access funding from other regions via intra-bank linkages. These results also matter on an aggregate level, as municipality-level credit and job flows drop in exposed regions. Policies aiming to reduce the fragmented structure of regional banking markets could moderate the propagation of foreign shocks.
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Individualism, Human Capital Formation, and Labor Market Success
Katharina Hartinger, Sven Resnjanskij, Jens Ruhose, Simon Wiederhold
CESifo Working Paper,
No. 9391,
2021
Abstract
There is an ongoing debate about the economic effects of individualism. We establish that individualism leads to better educational and labor market outcomes. Using data from the largest international adult skill assessment, we identify the effects of individualism by exploiting variation between migrants at the origin country, origin language, and person level. Migrants from more individualistic cultures have higher cognitive skills and larger skill gains over time. They also invest more in their skills over the life-cycle, as they acquire more years of schooling and are more likely to participate in adult education activities. In fact, individualism is more important in explaining adult skill formation than any other cultural trait that has been emphasized in previous literature. In the labor market, more individualistic migrants earn higher wages and are less often unemployed. We show that our results cannot be explained by selective migration or omitted origin-country variables.
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Access to Public Capital Markets and Employment Growth
Alexander Borisov, Andrew Ellul, Merih Sevilir
Journal of Financial Economics,
No. 3,
2021
Abstract
This paper examines the effect of going public on firm-level employment. To establish a causal effect, we employ a novel data set of private firms to investigate employment growth in IPO firms relative to a group of firms that file for an IPO but subsequently withdraw their offering. We find that employment increases significantly after going public, and the increase is more pronounced in industries with requirements for highly skilled labor and greater dependence on external finance. Improved ability to undertake acquisitions and a strategic shift toward commercialization, rather than agency problems, explain employment growth. Overall, these results highlight the importance of going public for firms' employment policies.
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