Taxing Banks: Do it properly or not at all
Ulrich Blum, Diemo Dietrich
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2010
Abstract
Eine Abgabe der Banken zugunsten eines gemeinsamen Sicherungsfonds ist gegenwärtig Gegenstand intensiver politischer Diskussionen. Die derzeit geplante Ausgestaltung wird kein Bollwerk gegen systemische Finanzkrisen aufbauen können. Besser wäre es, mit den Einnahmen aus der Bankenabgabe die Staatsschuld zu verringern. Dies würde an den Finanzmärkten zu einem geringeren Risikoaufschlag für Anleihen des Staates führen und damit dessen Fähigkeit verbessern, auch in der Zukunft unter den Bedingungen systemischer Krisen die Wirtschaft zu stabilisieren. Alles andere liefe nur auf eine Eigenkapitalvernichtung bei den Banken und damit auf eine Verzögerung des wirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs hinaus.
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Government Interventions in Banking Crises: Assessing Alternative Schemes in a Banking Model of Debt Overhang
Diemo Dietrich, Achim Hauck
Abstract
In dieser Studie werden verschiedene Politikmaßnahmen evaluiert, die ergriffen werden können, um den Rückgang des Kreditangebots im Geiner Bankenkrise aufzuhalten. Es wird ein dynamischer Ansatz entwickelt, in dem Banken aufgrund eines bestehenden Schuldenüberhangs einen Anreiz haben, das Kreditangebot zu reduzieren oder eine fragile Kapitalstruktur zu wählen. Staatliche Unterstützungsmaßnahmen, die von neuen Bankgeschäften abhängig gemacht werden, erlauben es den Banken, das Ausmaß der Unterstützung zu beeinflussen und Risiken zu externalisieren; damit targen die Maßnahmen dazu bei, dass Banken das Kreditangebot unangemessen stark ausweiten und/oder exzessive Risiken eingehen. Unterstützungsmaßnahmen ohne Bezug auf neue Bankgeschäfte führen nicht zu diesen adversen Anreizeffekten, sind aber mit höheren fiskalischen Kosten verbunden.
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IWH-Industrieumfrage im März 2010: Hochgesteckte Erwartungen beflügeln Geschäftsklima
Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
Zum Ende des ersten Quartals setzt sich die Erwärmung des Geschäftsklimas in der ostdeutschen Industrie spürbar fort, wie die Ergebnisse der IWH-Industrieumfrage vom März unter rund 300 Unternehmen zeigen. Die Firmen bewerten die aktuellen, vor allem aber die zukünftig erwarteten Geschäfte besser als im Januar. Der Saldo der Geschäftslage legte seitdem vier Punkte zu, der Saldo der Geschäftsaussichten stieg sprunghaft um 18 Punkte.
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Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
The paper analyzes leading indicators for GDP and industrial production in Germany. We focus on the performance of single and pooled leading indicators during the pre-crisis and crisis period using various weighting schemes. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single indicator as well as forecast combination methods. In addition, we use an end-of-sample instability test to investigate the stability of forecasting models during the recent financial crisis. We find in general that only a small number of single indicator models were performing well before the crisis. Pooling can substantially increase the reliability of leading indicator forecasts. During the crisis the relative performance of many leading indicator models increased. At short horizons, survey indicators perform best, while at longer horizons financial indicators, such as term spreads and risk spreads, improve relative to the benchmark.
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Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment
Steven J. Davis, R. Jason Faberman, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, Javier Miranda
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
No. 2,
2010
Abstract
Unemployment inflows fell from 4 percent of employment per month in the early 1980s to 2 percent by the mid 1990s. Using low frequency movements in industry-level data, we estimate that a 1 percentage point drop in the quarterly job destruction rate lowers the monthly unemployment inflow rate by 0.28 points. By our estimates, declines in job destruction intensity account for 28 (55) percent of the fall in unemployment inflows from 1982 (1990) to 2005. Slower job destruction accounts for similar fractions of long-term declines in the rate of unemployment.
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Specialization, Diversity, Competition and their Impact on Local Economic Growth in Germany
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Annette Illy, Michael Schwartz, Christoph Hornych
Abstract
This study systematically examines the impact of fundamental elements of urban economic structure on urban growth in Germany from 2003 to 2007. We test four elements simultaneously, that is sectoral specialization, diversification of economic activities, urban size as well as the impact of local competition. To account for the effect of varying spatial delimitations in the analysis of urban growth, we further differentiate between cities and planning regions as geographical units. The analysis covers manufacturing industries as well as service sectors. Most previous work produces inconsistent results and concentrates on localization economies and/or diversification, while urban size and the effect of local competition are widely ignored. Our regression results show a U-shaped relationship between localization economies and urban growth and positive effects of local competition on urban growth. With respect to diversification, we find positive effects on urban growth on the city-level, but insignificant results on the level of the planning regions. The impact of urban size also differs between free cities and planning regions; in the former a U-shaped relationship is found whereas the effect is inversely U-shaped for the latter.
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A New Metric for Banking Integration in Europe
Reint E. Gropp, A. K. Kashyap
Europe and the Euro,
2010
Abstract
Most observers have concluded that while money markets and government bond markets are rapidly integrating following the introduction of the common currency in the euro area, there is little evidence that a similar integration process is taking place for retail banking. Data on cross-border retail bank flows, cross-border bank mergers and the law of one price reveal no evidence of integration in retail banking. This paper shows that the previous tests of bank integration are weak in that they are not based on an equilibrium concept and are neither necessary nor sufficient statistics for bank integration. The paper proposes a new test of integration based on convergence in banks' profitability. The new test emphasises the role of an active market for corporate control and of competition in banking integration. European listed banks profitability appears to converge to a common level. There is weak evidence that competition eliminates high profits for these banks, and underperforming banks tend to show improved profitability. Unlisted European banks differ markedly. Their profits show no tendency to revert to a common target rate of profitability. Overall, the banking market in Europe appears far from being integrated. In contrast, in the U.S. both listed and unlisted commercial banks profits converge to the same target, and high profit banks see their profits driven down quickly.
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The Determinants of Bank Capital Structure
Reint E. Gropp, Florian Heider
Review of Finance,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
The paper shows that mispriced deposit insurance and capital regulation were of second-order importance in determining the capital structure of large U.S. and European banks during 1991 to 2004. Instead, standard cross-sectional determinants of non-financial firms’ leverage carry over to banks, except for banks whose capital ratio is close to the regulatory minimum. Consistent with a reduced role of deposit insurance, we document a shift in banks’ liability structure away from deposits towards non-deposit liabilities. We find that unobserved time-invariant bank fixed-effects are ultimately the most important determinant of banks’ capital structures and that banks’ leverage converges to bank specific, time-invariant targets.
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What Determines the Innovative Success of Subsidized Collaborative R&D Projects? – Project-Level Evidence from Germany –
Michael Schwartz, François Peglow, Michael Fritsch, Jutta Günther
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 7,
2010
published in: Technovation
Abstract
Systemic innovation theory emphasizes that innovations are the result of an interdependent exchange process between different organizations. This is reflected in the current paradigm in European innovation policy, which aims at the support of collaborative R&D and innovation projects bringing together science and industry. Building on a large data set using project-level evidence on 406 subsidized R&D cooperation projects, the present paper provides detailed insights on the relationship between the innovative success of R&D cooperation projects and project characteristics. Patent applications and publications are used as measures for direct outcomes of R&D projects. We also differentiate between academic-industry projects and pure inter-firm projects. Main results of negative binomial regressions are that large-firm involvement is positively related to pa-tent applications, but not to publications. Conversely, university involvement has positive effects on project outcomes in terms of publications but not in terms of patent applications. In general, projects’ funding is an important predictor of innovative success of R&D cooperation projects. No significant results are found for spatial proximity among cooperation partners and for the engagement of an applied research institute. Results are discussed with respect to the design of R&D cooperation support schemes.
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