Has the Euro Increased International Price Elasticities?
Oliver Holtemöller, Götz Zeddies
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 18,
2010
published in: Empirica
Abstract
This paper analyzes the role of common data problems when identifying structural breaks in small samples. Most notably, we survey small sample properties of the most commonly applied endogenous break tests developed by Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975) and Zeileis (2004), Nyblom (1989) and Hansen (1992), and Andrews, Lee, and Ploberger (1996). Power and size properties are derived using Monte Carlo simulations. Results emphasize that mostly the CUSUM type tests are affected by the presence of heteroscedasticity, whereas the individual parameter Nyblom test and AvgLM test are proved to be highly robust. However, each test is significantly affected by leptokurtosis. Contrarily to other tests, where skewness is far more problematic than kurtosis, it has no additional effect for any of the endogenous break tests we analyze. Concerning overall robustness the Nyblom test performs best, while being almost on par to more recently developed tests in terms of power.
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FDI and Domestic Investment: An Industry-level View
C. Arndt, Claudia M. Buch, Monika Schnitzer
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy,
2010
Abstract
Previous empirical work on the link between domestic and foreign investment has provided mixed results. This may partly be due to the level of aggregation of the data. In this paper, we argue that the impact of FDI on the domestic capital stock depends on the structure of industries. Using industry-level data on the stock of German FDI, we test our predictions. We use panel cointegration methods which address the potential endogeneity of FDI. We find evidence for a positive long-run impact of FDI on the domestic capital stock.
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Kosten und Nutzen der Ausbildung an Tertiärbildungsinstitutionen im Vergleich
Martina Eschelbach, G. Heineck, Steffen Müller, Regina T. Riphahn
Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik,
No. 2,
2010
Abstract
We compare German institutions of tertiary education (universities and polytechnics) with respect to the cost of and the returns to their educational degrees. Based on cost data from two different sources we find that on average the expenditures of universities are lower than those of polytechnics when we consider expenditures per potential enrollee and per student enrolled during the regular education period. We apply data from the German Socio-economic Panel (2001–2007) to estimate the private returns to tertiary education and find higher returns to university than polytechnic training. These results are robust to a variety of alternative procedures.
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Human Capital and Fertility in Germany after 1990: Evidence from a Multi-Spell Model
Marco Sunder
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 22,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the timing of birth of the first three children based on German panel
data (GSOEP) within a hazard rate framework. A random effects estimator is
used to accommodate correlation across spells. We consider the role of human
capital – approximated by a Mincer-type regression – and its gender-specific
effects on postponement of parenthood and possible recuperation at higherorder
births. An advantage of the use of panel data in this context consists in
its prospective nature, so that determinants of fertility can be measured when
at risk rather than ex-post, thus helping to reduce the risk of reverse causality.
The analysis finds evidence for strong recuperation effects, i.e., women with
greater human capital endowments follow, on average, a different birth history
trajectory, but with negligible curtailment of completed fertility.
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Capital Stock Approximation with the Perpetual Inventory Method: STATA Code for the IAB Establishment Panel
Steffen Müller
FDZ-Methodenreport, H. 02,
No. 2,
2010
Abstract
Das IAB Betriebspanel enthält keine direkten Informationen über den Kapitalstock der befragten Betriebe. Dieser Methodenreport beschreibt die Möglichkeit der Approximation des Kapitalstocks anhand der Methode der permanenten Inventur (perpetual inventory method), wie sie in Müller (2008) vorgeschlagen wird. Der Anhang enthält den entsprechenden STATA Code.
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Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? An Evaluation Study for East Germany
Eva Dettmann, Jutta Günther
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 21,
2009
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the formally equal qualifications acquired during a subsidized vocational education induce equal employment opportunities compared to regular vocational training. Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function, we are able to control for selection effects resulting from different personal and profession-related characteristics, and thus, to identify an unbiased effect of the public support. Besides the ‘total effect’ of support, it is of special interest if the effect is stronger for subsidized youths in external training compared to persons in workplace-related training. The analysis is based on unique and very detailed data, the Youth Panel of the Halle Centre for Social Research (zsh).
The results show that young people who successfully completed a subsidized vocational education are disadvantaged regarding their employment opportunities even when controlling for personal and profession-related influences on the employment prospects. Besides a quantitative effect, the analysis shows that the graduates of subsidized training work in slightly worse (underqualified) and worse paid jobs than the adolescents in the reference group. The comparison of both types of subsidized vocational training, however, does not confirm the expected stronger effect for youths in external vocational education compared to workplace-related training.
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Openness and Income Disparities: Does Trade Explain The 'Mezzogiorno' Effect?
Claudia M. Buch, P. Monti
Review of World Economics,
No. 4,
2010
Abstract
We use Italian regional data to answer the question whether trade affects within-country income differentials. In Italy, the more affluent Northern regions trade more with the rest of the world than the poorer ones in the Southern “Mezzogiorno” regions. Prima facie, there is a positive correlation between external trade and per capita income. Studying this relationship empirically requires taking into account the endogenous component of trade. We argue that panel cointegration models can complement instrumental variables techniques to account for the endogeneity of trade in a panel context. Both methods show a positive link between trade openness and the level of income per capita.
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A Panel Data Analysis on China's Intra-Industry Trade in the Capital Goods Sector
Yiping Zhu
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 18,
2009
Abstract
Diese Studie verwendet die Methode der Hausman-Taylor-2SLS Fehler-Komponenten zur Schätzung der Determinanten von Chinas Intraindustriellem
Handel (IIT) im Investitionsgütersektor mit seinen 26 Partnerländern. Sie disaggregiert IIT in horizontalen IIT (HIIT) und vertikalen IIT (VIIT). Investitionsgüter, Endprodukte und Halbfertigwaren werden separat geschätzt, um die Unterschiede des Handels zu interpretieren. Es zeigt sich, dass die wirtschaftliche Ähnlichkeit mit IIT-Halbfertigwaren signifikant negativ korreliert ist, aber bei IIT-Endprodukten keine Signifikanz besteht. Der Faktor Ausstattung weist keine Signifikanz bei der Bestimmung von IIT-Halbfertigwaren auf, obwohl er mit IIT-Endprodukten signifikant positiv korreliert ist. Wirtschaftsgröße ist sowohl mit IIT-Endprodukten als auch mit IIT-Halbfertigwaren signifikant negativ korreliert. Entfernung wirkt sich auf das Niveau von IIT-Endprodukten aus, hat aber einen geringeren Einfluss auf IIT-Halbfertigwaren. China hat im Bereich Halbfertigwaren relativ wenig intraindustriellen Handel mit ASEAN-Staaten. Da jedoch VIIT einen dominierenden Einfluss auf TIIT ausübt, bestehen keine bedeutenden Unterschiede zwischen den Schätzungsergebnissen von TIIT und VIIT.
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Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?
Makram El-Shagi
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 16,
2009
Abstract
The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts
based on a number of forecasting techniques from the literature using a panel of
ten industrialized countries during the period of 1988 to 2007. To capture expected
inflation we develop a recursive filtering algorithm which extracts unexpected inflation from real interest rate data, even in the presence of diverse risks and a potential Mundell-Tobin-effect.
The extracted unexpected inflation is compared to the forecasting errors of ten
econometric forecasts. Beside the standard AR(p) and ARMA(1,1) models, which
are known to perform best on average, we also employ several Phillips curve based approaches, VAR, dynamic factor models and two simple model avering approaches.
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Shadow Budgets, Fiscal Illusion and Municipal Spending: The Case of Germany
Peter Haug
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2009
Abstract
The paper investigates the existence of fiscal illusion in German municipalities with special focus on the revenues from local public enterprises. These shadow budgets tend to increase the misperception of municipal tax prices and seem to have been neglected in the literature. Therefore, an aggregated expenditure function has been estimated for all German independent cities applying an “integrated budget” approach, which means
that revenues and expenditures of the core budget and the local public enterprises are combined to one single municipal budget. The estimation results suggest that a higher relative share of local public enterprise revenues might increase total per capita spending as well as spending for non-obligatory municipal goods and services. Empirical evidence for other sources of fiscal illusion is mixed but some indications for debt illusion, renter illusion or the flypaper effect could be found.
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