Wirtschaftswachstum, Staatsfinanzen und Treibhausgas-Emissionen in der mittleren Frist
Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Alessandro Sardone, Götz Zeddies
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 4,
2022
Abstract
Die mittelfristige Projektion der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Lage in Deutschland beinhaltet, dass das Wirtschaftswachstum mit 1% pro Jahr in den kommenden sechs Jahren in etwa genauso hoch ausfällt wie in den vergangenen sechs Jahren. Der Staatshaushalt bleibt im Defizit, aber der Schuldenstand geht relativ zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt ab dem Jahr 2024 wieder zurück. Bei diesem Tempo der wirtschaftlichen Expansion werden die Emissionen mittelfristig zwar weiter zurückgehen, aber deutlich langsamer als nötig, um die nationalen Klimaschutzziele zu erreichen.
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European Real Estate Prices
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
IWH Technical Reports,
No. 3,
2022
Abstract
Real estate markets are pivotal to financial stability given their dual role as the underlying asset of crucial financial products in financial systems, such as mortgage loans and asset-backed securities, and the primary source of household wealth alike. As such, they also play traditionally a crucial role for the transmission of monetary policy. Imbalances and sudden corrections in real estate markets have been the root cause of many financial crises over the last decades. But whereas some national, often survey-based indicators of real estate prices are provided by central banks and statistical offices, a comprehensive collection of purchase prices, rents, and proxies for the liquidity of European real estate markets is lacking. The IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI) seeks to fill this void for residential property. This technical report describes the gathering and processing of sale and rental prices for properties in 18 European countries. We provide the general scrapeing step in the section before describing country-specific details for each country in separated sub-sections.
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Automation with Heterogeneous Agents: The Effect on Consumption Inequality
Tommaso Santini
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 28,
2022
Abstract
In this paper, I study technological change as a candidate for the observed increase in consumption inequality in the United States. I build an incomplete market model with educational choice combined with a task-based model on the production side. I consider two channels through which technology affects inequality: the skill that an agent can supply in the labor market and the level of capital she owns. In a quantitative analysis, I show that (i) the model replicates the increase in consumption inequality between 1981 and 2008 in the US (ii) educational choice and the return to wealth are quantitatively important in explaining the increase in consumption inequality.
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29.09.2022 • 23/2022
Joint Economic Forecast 2/2022: Energy crisis: inflation, recession, welfare loss
The crisis on the gas markets is having a severe impact on the German economy. Soaring gas prices are drastically increasing energy costs, leading to a massive reduction of the purchasing power. Despite a decline in the second half of the year, gross domestic product is expected to expand by 1.4% this year. For the coming year, the institutes expect a contraction by 0.4%, followed by an increase of 1.9% in 2024.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Konjunktur aktuell: Energiekrise in Deutschland
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 3,
2022
Abstract
Im Spätsommer 2022 ist die Weltwirtschaft im Abschwung. Die US-Notenbank und weitere Zentralbanken haben aufgrund der hohen Inflation mit der Straffung ihrer Geldpolitik begonnen, die chinesische Konjunktur schwächelt, und Europa kämpft mit einer Energiekrise. Die deutsche Wirtschaft steht aufgrund der stark steigenden Energiekosten vor einer Rezession. Das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird im Jahr 2022 um 1,1% zunehmen und im Jahr 2023 um 1,4% sinken. Die Verbraucherpreise steigen im Jahr 2022 um 7,9% und im Jahr 2023 um 9,5%.
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Organised Labour, Labour Market Imperfections, and Employer Wage Premia
Sabien Dobbelaere, Boris Hirsch, Steffen Müller, Georg Neuschäffer
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 20,
2022
published in: ILR Review
Abstract
This paper examines how collective bargaining through unions and workplace co-determination through works councils relate to labour market imperfections and how labour market imperfections relate to employer wage premia. Based on representative German plant data for the years 1999–2016, we document that 70% of employers pay wages below the marginal revenue product of labour and 30% pay wages above. We further find that the prevalence of wage mark-downs is significantly smaller when organised labour is present and that the ratio of wages to the marginal revenue product of labour is significantly bigger. Finally, we document a close link between labour market imperfections and mean employer wage premia, that is wage differences between employers corrected for worker sorting.
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Elderly Left Behind? How Older Workers Can Participate in the Modern Labor Market
Oliver Falck, Valentin Lindlacher, Simon Wiederhold
EconPol Forum,
No. 5,
2022
Abstract
In her 2021 State of the Union address, European Commission’s President Ursula von der Leyen announced that “[the EU] will invest in 5G and fiber. But equally important is the investment in digital skills.” Indeed, the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, which runs until 2026, has earmarked substantial funds to tackle the digital divide, in acknowledgment of the fact that the EU is not only missing ICT specialists but also that many Europeans do not have sufficient digital skills to thrive in today’s society and labor market. Many observers argue that older workers in particular lack digital skills, suffering more often from computer anxiety and showing lower computer self-efficacy (Czaja et al. 2006). This lack of skills hampers their employability and productivity in a technologically fast-changing world.
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What Does Codetermination Do?
Simon Jäger, Shakked Noy, Benjamin Schoefer
ILR Review,
No. 4,
2022
Abstract
The authors provide a comprehensive overview of codetermination, that is, worker representation in firms’ governance and management. The available micro evidence points to zero or small positive effects of codetermination on worker and firm outcomes and leaves room for moderate positive effects on productivity, wages, and job stability. The authors also present new country-level, general-equilibrium event studies of codetermination reforms between the 1960s and 2010s, finding no effects on aggregate economic outcomes or the quality of industrial relations. They offer three explanations for the institution’s limited impact. First, existing codetermination laws convey little authority to workers. Second, countries with codetermination laws have high baseline levels of informal worker voice. Third, codetermination laws may interact with other labor market institutions, such as union representation and collective bargaining. The article closes with a discussion of the implications for recent codetermination proposals in the United States.
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Productivity, Managers’ Social Connections and the Financial Crisis
Iftekhar Hasan, Stefano Manfredonia
Journal of Banking and Finance,
August
2022
Abstract
This paper investigates whether managers’ personal connections help corporate productivity to recover after a negative economic shock. Leveraging the heterogeneity in the severity of the financial crisis across different sectors, the paper reports that (i) the financial crisis had a negative effect on within-firm productivity, (ii) the effect was long-lasting and persistent, supporting a productivity-hysteresis hypothesis, and (iii) managers’ personal connections allowed corporations to recover from this productivity slowdown. Among the possible mechanisms, we show that connected managers operating in affected sectors foster productivity recovery through higher input cost efficiency and better access to the credit market, as well as more efficient use of labour and capital.
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The Cleansing Effect of Banking Crises
Reint E. Gropp, Steven Ongena, Jörg Rocholl, Vahid Saadi
Economic Inquiry,
No. 3,
2022
Abstract
We assess the cleansing effects of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. U.S. regions with higher levels of supervisory forbearance on distressed banks see less restructuring in the real sector: fewer establishments, firms, and jobs are lost when more distressed banks remain in business. In these regions, the banking sector has been less healthy for several years after the crisis. Regions with less forbearance experience higher productivity growth after the crisis with more firm entries, job creation, and employment, wages, patents, and output growth. Forbearance is greater for state-chartered banks and in regions with weaker banking competition and more independent banks.
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