Volatile Multinationals? Evidence from the Labor Demand of German Firms
Claudia M. Buch, A. Lipponer
Labour Economics,
No. 2,
2010
Abstract
Does more FDI make the world a riskier place for workers? We analyze whether an increase in multinational firms' activities is associated with an increase in firm-level employment volatility. We use a firm-level dataset for Germany which allows us to distinguish between purely domestic firms, exporters, domestic multinationals and foreign multinationals. Employment in multinationals could be more volatile than employment in domestic firms if multinationals were facing more volatile demand or if they react more to aggregate developments. We therefore decompose the labor demand of firms into their reaction and their exposure to aggregate developments. We find no above-average wage and output elasticities for multinational firms.
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Are there Gender-specific Preferences for Location Factors? A Grouped Conditional Logit-model of Interregional Migration Flows in Germany
Lutz Schneider, Alexander Kubis
Schmollers Jahrbuch,
2010
Abstract
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht geschlechtsspezifische Unterschiede in der Wertschätzung regionaler Standortfaktoren. Die Standortpräferenzen werden auf Basis einer Analyse von interregionalen Wanderungsströmen innerhalb Deutschlands analysiert. Die Untersuchung basiert auf einem Grouped Conditional Logit-Ansatz, wobei die Probleme der Unabhängigkeit von irrelevanten Alternativen und der Überdispersion berücksichtigt werden. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich zunächst, dass bei Frauen und Männern dieselben regionalen Charakteristika als Pull- oder aber als Push-Faktoren wirken. Geschlechtsspezifische Unterschiede werden aber hinsichtlich Stärke des Einflusses der einzelnen Faktoren sichtbar, vor allem im Hinblick auf das regionale Lohnniveau und das Angebot an Bildungseinrichtungen. Darüber hinaus zeigt sich, dass Frauen auch nach Kontrolle von Standortfaktoren mobiler sind als Männer.
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Differences in Labor Supply to Monopsonistic Firms and the Gender Pay Gap: An Empirical Analysis Using Linked Employer‐Employee Data from Germany
Boris Hirsch, Thorsten Schank, Claus Schnabel
Journal of Labor Economics,
No. 2,
2010
Abstract
This article investigates women’s and men’s labor supply to the firm within a semistructural approach based on a dynamic model of new monopsony. Using methods of survival analysis and a large linked employer‐employee data set for Germany, we find that labor supply elasticities are small (1.9–3.7) and that women’s labor supply to the firm is less elastic than men’s (which is the reverse of gender differences in labor supply usually found at the level of the market). Our results imply that at least one‐third of the gender pay gap might be wage discrimination by profit‐maximizing monopsonistic employers.
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Specialization, Diversity, Competition and their Impact on Local Economic Growth in Germany
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Annette Illy, Michael Schwartz, Christoph Hornych
Abstract
This study systematically examines the impact of fundamental elements of urban economic structure on urban growth in Germany from 2003 to 2007. We test four elements simultaneously, that is sectoral specialization, diversification of economic activities, urban size as well as the impact of local competition. To account for the effect of varying spatial delimitations in the analysis of urban growth, we further differentiate between cities and planning regions as geographical units. The analysis covers manufacturing industries as well as service sectors. Most previous work produces inconsistent results and concentrates on localization economies and/or diversification, while urban size and the effect of local competition are widely ignored. Our regression results show a U-shaped relationship between localization economies and urban growth and positive effects of local competition on urban growth. With respect to diversification, we find positive effects on urban growth on the city-level, but insignificant results on the level of the planning regions. The impact of urban size also differs between free cities and planning regions; in the former a U-shaped relationship is found whereas the effect is inversely U-shaped for the latter.
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Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
Rolf Scheufele
North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
2010
Abstract
This paper evaluates the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and its hybrid variant within a limited information framework for Germany. The main interest resides in the average frequency of price re-optimization by firms. We use the labor income share as the driving variable and consider a source of real rigidity by allowing for a fixed firm-specific capital stock. A GMM estimation strategy is employed as well as an identification robust method based on the Anderson–Rubin statistic. We find that the German Phillips curve is purely forward-looking. Moreover, our point estimates are consistent with the view that firms re-optimize prices every 2–3 quarters. These estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view. But the uncertainties around these estimates are very large and also consistent with perfect nominal price rigidity, where firms never re-optimize prices. This analysis also offers some explanation as to why previous results for the German NKPC based on GMM differ considerably. First, standard GMM results are very sensitive to the way in which orthogonality conditions are formulated. Further, model mis-specifications may be left undetected by conventional J tests. This analysis points out the need for identification robust methods to get reliable estimates for the NKPC.
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What Happened to the East German Housing Market? A Historical Perspective on the Role of Public Funding
Claus Michelsen, Dominik Weiß
Post-Communist Economies,
2010
Abstract
The paper analyses the development of the East German housing market after the reunification of the former German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany in 1990. We analyse the dynamics of the East German housing market within the framework of the well-known stock-flow model, proposed by DiPasquale and Wheaton. We show that the today observable disequilibrium to a large extend is caused by post-unification housing policy and its strong fiscal incentives to invest into the housing stock. Moreover, in line with the stylized empirical facts, we show that ‘hidden reserves’ of the housing market were reactivated since the economy of East Germany became market organized. Since initial undersupply was overcome faster than politicians expected, the implemented fiscal stimuli were too strong. In contrast to the widespread opinion that outward migration caused the observable vacancies, this paper shows that not weakness of demand but supply side policies caused the observable disequilibrium.
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A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model
Sebastian Giesen, Oliver Holtemöller, Juliane Scharff, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model – the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) – is closely related to studies recently published by the International
Monetary Fund (global projection model). Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In this version we consider Germany and France, which represent together about 50 percent of Euro area GDP. The model allows for country specific heterogeneity in the sense that we capture different adjustment patterns to economic shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian techniques. Out-of-sample and pseudo out-of-sample forecasts are presented.
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What Determines the Innovative Success of Subsidized Collaborative R&D Projects? – Project-Level Evidence from Germany –
Michael Schwartz, François Peglow, Michael Fritsch, Jutta Günther
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 7,
2010
published in: Technovation
Abstract
Systemic innovation theory emphasizes that innovations are the result of an interdependent exchange process between different organizations. This is reflected in the current paradigm in European innovation policy, which aims at the support of collaborative R&D and innovation projects bringing together science and industry. Building on a large data set using project-level evidence on 406 subsidized R&D cooperation projects, the present paper provides detailed insights on the relationship between the innovative success of R&D cooperation projects and project characteristics. Patent applications and publications are used as measures for direct outcomes of R&D projects. We also differentiate between academic-industry projects and pure inter-firm projects. Main results of negative binomial regressions are that large-firm involvement is positively related to pa-tent applications, but not to publications. Conversely, university involvement has positive effects on project outcomes in terms of publications but not in terms of patent applications. In general, projects’ funding is an important predictor of innovative success of R&D cooperation projects. No significant results are found for spatial proximity among cooperation partners and for the engagement of an applied research institute. Results are discussed with respect to the design of R&D cooperation support schemes.
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Konjunktur aktuell: Die Erholung legt nur eine kurze Pause ein
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2010
Abstract
Die weltwirtschaftliche Erholung wird sich im Jahr 2010 weiter fortsetzen. Besonders hoch ist die Dynamik in den asiatischen Volkswirtschaften. Auch in den USA erholt sich die wirtschaftliche Aktivität trotz weiterhin bremsender Einflüsse aus dem Immobiliensektor und vom Arbeitsmarkt so weit, dass das
Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr bereits wieder das Vorkrisenniveau erreichen wird. Im Euroraum verläuft die Erholung hingegen schleppend. Für einige Länder bestehen Zweifel daran, ob die Wirtschaftspolitik über die Handlungsspielräume verfügt, die hohen Haushalts- und Leistungsbilanzdefizite einzudämmen. Dies erhöht die Unsicherheit über die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und bremst die Konsum- und Investitionsgüternachfrage. In Deutschland kam die Erholung Ende 2009 ins Stocken; der private Konsum und die Bauinvestitionen fielen schwach aus. Der Arbeitsmarkt zeigt sich hingegen weiterhin sehr robust. Die Unternehmen haben bisher trotz des starken Einbruchs weitgehend auf Entlassungen verzichtet, und eine abrupte Entlassungswelle im Nachgang der Krise wird wohl ausbleiben. Erklären lässt sich dies durch die ausgeweiteten Kurzarbeiterregelungen und die Kosten, die bei Entlassung und erneutem Personalaufbau im Zuge der wirtschaftlichen Erholung entstehen. Die Arbeitsproduktivität wird somit noch einige Zeit unter dem Vorkrisenniveau liegen und keinen großen Spielraum für Lohnerhöhungen bieten, sodass die realen Einkommen nur wenig steigen werden. Der private Konsum dürfte jedoch von der robusten Arbeitsmarktlage tendenziell gestützt werden. Die Hauptantriebskraft für die deutsche Konjunktur ist allerdings nach wie vor die weltwirtschaftliche Dynamik. Sie wird die Exporte nach dem Einbruch in der Krise wieder beflügeln und nach und nach zu einer Wiederbelebung der Unternehmensinvestitionen führen. Insgesamt wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland im Jahr 2010 um 1,8% zulegen, und auch 2011 setzt sich der Erholungskurs fort. Das Produktionsniveau wird aber Ende 2011 noch unter dem Vorkrisenniveau und unter dem Produktionspotenzial liegen. Für die Wirtschaftspolitik bleibt der sanfte Ausstieg aus der expansiven Geld- und Finanzpolitik die zentrale Aufgabe. Die Nachwehen der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise können nicht als Vorwand dienen, die notwendige Konsolidierung aufzuschieben. Denn eine wichtige Erkenntnis aus der jüngsten Vergangenheit ist, dass nur einem auch finanziell handlungsfähigen Staat die Stabilisierung schwerer wirtschaftlicher Krisen gelingen kann.
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IWH-Industrieumfrage in Ostdeutschland zum Jahresauftakt 2010: Nach der tiefen Krise – Umsatz- und Beschäftigungspläne wieder im Plus
Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2010
Abstract
Zu Beginn des Jahres 2010 dokumentieren die Ergebnisse der Industrieumfrage den Aufstieg des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Ostdeutschland aus dem Konjunkturtal. Begonnen hatte die Talfahrt schon im Laufe des Jahres 2008. Seit dem Anfang des abgelaufenen Jahres 2009 überwogen dann fast das ganze Jahr über die pessimistischen Einschätzungen zur Geschäftslage und zu den Erwartungen.
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