14.12.2021 • 29/2021
German economy not yet immune to COVID 19 ‒ outlook clouded again
The current pandemic wave and supply bottlenecks cause the German economy to stagnate in winter. When infection rates go down in spring, private consumption will increase significantly. In addition, supply restrictions will be gradually reduced. As a result, the economy will regain momentum. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that German gross domestic product will increase by 3.5% (East Germany: 2.7%) in 2022, after 2.7% (East Germany: 2.1%) in the current year. Inflation is expected to decline only slowly.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
14.10.2021 • 26/2021
East German economy less affected by supply bottlenecks than German economy as a whole, but lower vaccination rates pose risks – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2021 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Federal Statisti
Supply bottlenecks affect production in the manufacturing sector in East Germany somewhat less than in Germany as a whole. With 1.8%, the increase in Gross Domestic Product in eastern Germany in 2021 therefore is likely to be lower than in Germany as a whole (2.4%); this gap is likely to enlarge in 2022, when supply bottlenecks hamper less (East Germany: 3.6%, Germany 4.8%).
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
14.10.2021 • 25/2021
Crisis is gradually being overcome – align actions to lower growth
The Corona pandemic still shapes the economic situation in Germany. A complete normalisation of contact-intensive activities is not to be expected in the short term. In addition, supply bottlenecks are hampering manufacturing for the time being. The German economy will reach normal capacity utilisation in the course of 2022. In their autumn report, the leading economic research institutes forecast that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will rise by 2.4% in 2021 and by 4.8% in 2022.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
Krise wird allmählich überwunden – Handeln an geringerem Wachstum ausrichten
Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie,
No. 2,
2021
Abstract
Die wirtschaftliche Lage in Deutschland ist nach wie vor von der Corona-Pandemie gekennzeichnet. Nachdem neue Infektionswellen die Erholung im Winterhalbjahr 2020/2021 verzögert hatten, steigt das Bruttoinlandsprodukt seit dem Abebben des Infektionsgeschehens im Frühjahr nun wieder deutlich. Allerdings behindern im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe Lieferengpässe bei Vorprodukten die Produktion, sodass nur die konsumnahen Dienstleistungsbranchen zulegen. Im Winterhalbjahr dürfte die Erholung weiterhin gebremst werden. So ist davon auszugehen, dass in der kalten Jahreszeit die Aktivität im Dienstleistungsgewerbe auch bei geringem Infektionsgeschehen unter dem sonst üblichen Niveau bleiben wird. Zudem werden die Lieferengpässe die Produktion im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe vorerst weiter belasten. Im kommenden Jahr dürften die Beeinträchtigungen durch Pandemie und Lieferengpässe nach und nach zurückgehen, sodass die Normalauslastung wieder erreicht wird. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2021 um 2,4% und im Jahr 2022 um 4,8% zulegen. Die Institute rechnen – nicht zuletzt infolge erhöhter Energiekosten – mit einem Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise um 3% im laufenden Jahr und um 2,5% im Jahr 2022. Das Defizit der öffentlichen Haushalte dürfte von 4,9% in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr auf 2,1% im Folgejahr zurückgehen. Angesichts der kräftigen Zunahme des nominalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird die öffentliche Schuldenstandsquote wohl von 71% im Jahr 2021 auf 67% im Jahr 2022 abnehmen. Zwar dürften die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Corona-Krise mit der Rückkehr zur Normalauslastung allmählich überwunden werden, aber die Herausforderungen des Klimawandels und das demografisch bedingt absehbar niedrigere Wirtschaftswachstum führen zu geringeren Konsummöglichkeiten.
Read article
14.09.2021 • 23/2021
Production bottlenecks delay recovery
The German recovery made good progress over the summer 2021. However, bottlenecks in sea transport and the production of intermediate goods are weighing on world trade. The rise in raw material prices has prompted inflation rates to spike, and an increase in new infections is clouding the outlook again. A weak final quarter is therefore to be expected. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 2.2% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022 (East Germany: 1.8% and 2.8%).
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth
Christiane Baumeister, Pierre Guérin
International Journal of Forecasting,
No. 3,
2021
Abstract
This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world real GDP growth using mixed-frequency models. It shows that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecasting accuracy, while other monthly measures have more mixed success. Specifically, the best-performing model yields impressive gains with MSPE reductions of up to 34% at short horizons and up to 13% at long horizons relative to an autoregressive benchmark. The global economic conditions indicator also contains valuable information for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. This indicator is used to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the U.S., the OECD area, and the world economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and the main factors that drive the nowcasts are quantified.
Read article
06.07.2021 • 18/2021
IWH Bankruptcy Update: June Data Incomplete – Small Forecasted Increase in Bankruptcies
Despite incomplete June data, the month-over-month increase in German corporate bankruptcies is projected to be small. Furthermore, the increase is largely attributable to the higher number of business days in June, according to the IWH Bankruptcy Report, which is published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) and provides a monthly update on German bankruptcy statistics.
Steffen Müller
Read
15.06.2021 • 16/2021
Increase in personal contacts spurs economic activity
This summer the economic outlook in Germany is bright. As the pandemic is in retreat, the restrictions that have hampered many service activities are likely to be gradually lifted, and a strong boost in private purchases can be expected. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that gross domestic product will increase by 3.9% in 2021 and by 4.0% in 2022. Production in East Germany is expected to increase by 3% in both years, respectively.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
15.04.2021 • 12/2021
Economy in East Germany shrank less than in the West, but will have weaker momentum when pandemic disappears – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2021 and new data for East Germany
At 3%, the increase in gross domestic product in eastern Germany in 2021 is likely to be lower than in Germany as a whole (3.7%), as the slump due to the pandemic was smaller in 2020. In the course of the economic recovery in the second half of the year, the unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
15.04.2021 • 11/2021
Pandemic delays upswing – Demography slows growth
In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7% in the current year and 3.9% in 2022. The renewed shutdown is delaying the economic recovery, but as soon as the risks of infection, particularly from vaccination, have been averted, a strong recovery will begin. The economy is likely to return to normal output levels around the start of the coming year.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
