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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2009 in East Germany

Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen, No. 3, 2009
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2009. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2009 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing and selected services of Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and East Germany.
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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2010 in East Germany

Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen, 2010
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2010. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2010 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing and selected services of East Germany.
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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2008 in East Germany

Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen, No. 2, 2008
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2008. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2008 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing and selected services of East Germany.
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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2007 in East Germany

Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen, No. 3, 2007
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2007. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2007 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing of Croatia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia East Germany.
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In Search for Yield? New Survey-Based Evidence on Bank Risk Taking

Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 3375, 2011
published in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Abstract
There is growing consensus that the conduct of monetary policy can have an impact on financial and economic stability through the risk-taking incentives of banks. Falling interest rates might induce a “search for yield” and generate incentives to invest into risky activities. This paper provides evidence on the link between monetary policy and commercial property prices and the risk-taking incentives of banks. We use a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) for the U.S. for the years 1997-2008. We include standard macroeconomic indicators and factors summarizing information provided in the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Terms of Business Lending. These data allow modeling the reactions of banks’ new lending volumes and the riskiness of new loans. We do not find evidence for a risk-taking channel for the entire banking system after a monetary policy loosening or an unexpected increase in property prices. This masks, however, important differences across banking groups. Small domestic banks increase their exposure to risk, foreign banks lower risk, and large domestic banks do not change their risk exposure.
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The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective

Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 5, 2011
published in: Kredit und Kapital
Abstract
This paper analyses the recession in 2008/2009 in Germany, which is very different from previous recessions, in particular regarding its cause and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail to detect the timing and the magnitude of the recession. This study shows that large forecast errors for both expert forecasts and forecasts based on leading indicators resulted during this recession which implies that the recession was very difficult to forecast. However, some leading indicators (survey data, risk spreads, stock prices) have indicated an economic downturn and hence, beat univariate time series models. Although the combination of individual forecasts provides an improvement compared to the benchmark model, the combined forecasts are worse than several individual models. A comparison of expert forecasts with the best forecasts based on leading indicators shows only minor deviations. Overall, the range for an improvement of expert forecasts during the crisis compared to indicator forecasts is relatively small.
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Internationalisation Theory and Technological Accumulation - An Investigation of Multinational Affiliates in East Germany

Björn Jindra
, 2010
Abstract
This dissertation applies the theory of technology accumulation to explain the internationalisation of foreign and West German multinational enterprises (MNEs) into East Germany. This theory shifts the focus from technology transfer to the international diffusion of innovation within the MNE. It rejects the position that all MNEs offer the same technological opportunities to host economies. Yet, most of the existing empirical research on postcommunist transition economies including East Germany applies the traditional technology transfer perspective. Therefore, this dissertation provides a complementary and novel approach. We assume a dynamic interaction between existing location specific technological capabilities within the host country, MNEs’ location choice, their internationalisation of research and development (R&D) and innovation, and the potential for technological spillover effects from MNEs to the host economy. The dissertation exploits information from the IWH FDI micro database on the full population of MNEs that entered East German manufacturing until 2005 and corresponding survey data. Microeconometric estimation results generate a number of novel findings: We can show that existing location specific technological capabilities affect MNEs’ general location choice within East Germany. They are not powerful enough to attract MNEs’ technological activities. Instead, the location of MNEs’ innovation requires the joint presence of technological and industry specialisation within regions, whereas foreign R&D benefits from technological specialisation in combination with a diversified industry structure. Moreover, the location of technological activity differs depending upon the underlying motive for internationalisation. Our findings suggest that the potential for technological externalities from affiliates to local firms is subject to centrally and locally driven technological heterogeneity of MNEs. Existing location specific technological capabilities do not affect the spillover potential. This hints a limited dynamic interaction of ownership and locational advantages in firms’ internationalisation. We derive implications for the technology accumulation theory as well as for various fields of science and technology policy.
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Has the Euro Increased International Price Elasticities?

Oliver Holtemöller, Götz Zeddies
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 18, 2010
published in: Empirica
Abstract
This paper analyzes the role of common data problems when identifying structural breaks in small samples. Most notably, we survey small sample properties of the most commonly applied endogenous break tests developed by Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975) and Zeileis (2004), Nyblom (1989) and Hansen (1992), and Andrews, Lee, and Ploberger (1996). Power and size properties are derived using Monte Carlo simulations. Results emphasize that mostly the CUSUM type tests are affected by the presence of heteroscedasticity, whereas the individual parameter Nyblom test and AvgLM test are proved to be highly robust. However, each test is significantly affected by leptokurtosis. Contrarily to other tests, where skewness is far more problematic than kurtosis, it has no additional effect for any of the endogenous break tests we analyze. Concerning overall robustness the Nyblom test performs best, while being almost on par to more recently developed tests in terms of power.
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Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase

Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 19, 2010
published in: Computational Economics
Abstract
This paper analyzes the role of common data problems when identifying structural breaks in small samples. Most notably, we survey small sample properties of the most commonly applied endogenous break tests developed by Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975) and Zeileis (2004), Nyblom (1989) and Hansen (1992), and Andrews, Lee, and Ploberger (1996). Power and size properties are derived using Monte Carlo simulations. Results emphasize that mostly the CUSUM type tests are affected by the presence of heteroscedasticity, whereas the individual parameter Nyblom test and AvgLM test are proved to be highly robust. However, each test is significantly affected by leptokurtosis. Contrarily to other tests, where skewness is far more problematic than kurtosis, it has no additional effect for any of the endogenous break tests we analyze. Concerning overall robustness the Nyblom test performs best, while being almost on par to more recently developed tests in terms of power.
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Shrinking due to corpulence? BMI in childhood predicts subsequent linear growth among US children and youth, 1963-1970

Marco Sunder
Annals of Human Biology, 2008
Abstract
While the USA is one of the most opulent countries, its population is not among the tallest but is among the most corpulent. This short report investigates the association between body mass index in childhood and subsequent change in height-for-age at the individual level, based on data from the National Health Examination Study (1963-1970). A sub-sample of participants in this survey was measured twice at intervals between 2.3 and 4.4 years, and assessed bone age can be used to account for differences in maturation at baseline. Regression results indicate that a BMI-for-age above the 85th percentile is associated with a reduction in growth by 0.03-0.06 height-for-age standard deviations per year, or roughly 1 cm within 4 years. An inefficiently high nutritional status in childhood may thus jeopardize subsequent linear growth. However, the trans-Atlantic height gap is considerably larger than what this empirical relationship could predict.
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