05.09.2024 • 24/2024
Moderate economic growth in the world – German economy continues to stagnate
Production in Germany has been stagnating for two years and is roughly the same level as shortly before the outbreak of the pandemic. Investment of firms is particularly weak. An important reason for fewer investments is the sluggish export business. Private households are also holding back on consumption, mainly due to concerns about the longer-term economic outlook. According to the autumn forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product in Germany is likely to stagnate in 2024 and to increase by 1.0% in 2025 as capacity utilisation normalises. In June, the IWH forecast had still assumed a growth of 0.3% in 2024 and of 1.5% in 2025. In East Germany, gross domestic product will increase by 0.3% this year and by 0.9% in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024.…
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Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
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Economic Outlook
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2024 German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth September 26, 2024 The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a…
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Charts
Info Graphs Sometimes pictures say more than a thousand words. Therefore, we selected a few graphs to present our main topics visually. If you should have any questions or would…
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Ludwig (Interview)
About the CIA and a glass of red wine ... Professor Dr Udo Ludwig on the beginnings of our institute The core of the IWH founding team came from the Institute for Applied Economic…
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IWH Economic Barometer for East Germany
IWH Economic Barometer for East Germany IWH has developed a quarterly output method for determining East Germany's gross domestic product (excluding Berlin). The calculations were…
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Market-implied Ratings and Their Divergence from Credit Ratings
Iftekhar Hasan, Winnie P. H. Poon, Jianfu Shen, Gaiyan Zhang
Journal of Financial Research,
No. 2,
2023
Abstract
In this article, we investigate the divergence between credit ratings (CRs) and Moody's market-implied ratings (MIRs). Our evidence shows that rating gaps provide incremental information to the market regarding issuers' default risk over CRs alone in the short horizon and outperform CRs over extended horizons. The predictive ability of rating gaps is greater for more opaque and volatile issuers. Such predictability was more pronounced during the 2008 financial crisis but weakened in the post-Dodd-Frank Act period. This finding is consistent with credit rating agencies' efforts to improve their performance when facing regulatory pressure. Moreover, our analysis identifies rating-gap signals that do (do not) lead to subsequent Moody's actions to place issuers on negative outlook and watchlists. We find that negative signals from MIR gaps have a real economic impact on issuers' fundamentals such as profitability, leverage, investment, and default risk, thus supporting the recovery-efforts hypothesis.
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14.03.2023 • 7/2023
Gas storages full – economic outlook less gloomy
The severe slump in the German economy expected last fall has not materialised because gas supply stabilises. However, due to high inflation, higher real interest rates and declining real incomes, the economy is likely to remain weak. In its spring forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects production to grow by just 0.4% in 2023, and inflation to remain high at 5.8%.
Oliver Holtemöller
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13.04.2022 • 8/2022
From Pandemic to Energy Crisis: Economy and Politics under Permanent Stress
The German economy is steering through difficult waters and faces the highest inflation rates in decades. In their spring report, the leading German economic research institutes revise their outlook for this year significantly downward. The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is slowing down as a result of the war in Ukraine, but remains on track. The institutes expect GDP to increase by 2.7% and 3.1% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. In the event of an immediate interruption to Russian gas supplies, a total of 220 billion euros in German economic output would be at risk in both years.
Oliver Holtemöller
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