13.03.2025 • 10/2025
A turning point for the German economy?
The international political environment has fundamentally changed with looming trade wars and a deteriorating security situation in Europe. The leading parties in Germany are setting the stage for debt-financed additional defence tasks with far-reaching changes to the debt brake. This entails major risks for the German economy, but also opportunities. Meanwhile, the economy continues to be in a downturn. According to the spring forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 is likely to be roughly the same as in the previous year, and it will not increase significantly until 2026, partly because uncertainty about German economic policy is likely to decrease after the new government is established, meaning that the savings rate of private households will fall again somewhat and the debt-financed additional government spending will gradually have an impact on demand. The IWH economists are forecasting an increase in GDP of 0.1% for 2025. In December, they were still forecasting growth of 0.4% for 2025. The outlook is similar for East Germany, where production is likely to have increased slightly in 2024, unlike in Germany as a whole.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
08.01.2025 • 1/2025
IWH founds a European centre for microdata research
The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is once again growing significantly. A new institute unit will generate access to microdata from European countries to facilitate new research on productivity, a prerequisite for prosperity. The IWH's budget increases by almost one million euros per year.
Reint E. Gropp
Javier Miranda
Read
Reassessing EU Comparative Advantage: The Role of Technology
Filippo di Mauro, Marco Matani, Gianmarco Ottaviano
IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers,
No. 2,
2024
Abstract
Based on the sufficient statistics approach developed by Huang and Ottaviano (2024), we show how the state of technology of European industries relative to the rest of the world can be empirically assessed in a way that is simple in terms of computation, parsimonious in terms of data requirements, but still comprehensive in terms of information. The lack of systematic cross-industry correlation between export specialization and technological advantage suggests that standard measures of revealed comparative advantage only imperfectly capture a country’s technological prowess due to the concurrent influences of factor prices, market size, markups, firm selection and market share reallocation.
Read article
Reassessing EU Comparative Advantage: The Role of Technology
Filippo di Mauro, Marco Matani, Gianmarco Ottaviano
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 26,
2024
Abstract
Based on the sufficient statistics approach developed by Huang and Ottaviano (2024), we show how the state of technology of European industries relative to the rest of the world can be empirically assessed in a way that is simple in terms of computation, parsimonious in terms of data requirements, but still comprehensive in terms of information. The lack of systematic cross-industry correlation between export specialization and technological advantage suggests that standard measures of revealed comparative advantage only imperfectly capture a country’s technological prowess due to the concurrent influences of factor prices, market size, markups, firm selection and market share reallocation.
Read article
12.12.2024 • 31/2024
Frosty prospects for the German economy
The German economy will continue to stagnate in winter 2024/2025. Industry is suffering from a loss of international competitiveness. For this reason and due to the unclear economic policy outlook, firms and consumers are holding back on spending, although incomes have increased recently. Consumer spending will only increase more strongly once the uncertainty subsides. According to the winter forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product in Germany is expected to fall by 0.2% in 2024 and to expand by 0.4% in 2025. In September, the IWH forecast had still assumed a zero growth in 2024 and a growth of 1.0% in 2025. In East Germany, gross domestic product will increase by 0.5% both this year and in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
Advanced Technology Adoption: Determinants and Labor Market Effects of Robot Use
Verena Plümpe
Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, PhD Thesis,
2024
Abstract
The recent advances in automation technology, robotics in particular, have sparked a heated debate over the future of labor and human society at large. The ongoing process of robotization may engender profound impacts on various segments of the labor market. Given the far-reaching implications of robots, it is thus very important to understand the scale and scope of robot use and characteristics of robot users. However, the main challenge is the limited availability of robot data at the microeconomic level (Raj and Seamans, 2018). Due to the data constraint, the bulk of the existing literature relies on cross-country industry-level data from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). The lack of micro-level robot data makes it difficult to paint a comprehensive picture of robotization in industrial settings, and perhaps more importantly, to assess how within-industry firm level heterogeneity manifests itself in robot use and adoption.
Read article
Media Response
Media Response April 2025 Steffen Müller: Trotz bundesweiten Höchststands: Zahl der Insolvenzen in Sachsen-Anhalt stagniert in: ARD tagesschau, 14.04.2025 Steffen Müller: Zahl der…
See page
Economic Outlook
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2025 Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent April 10, 2025 The German economy will continue to tread water in…
See page
Lecturers
Lecturers at CGDE Institutions Jordan Adamson Assistant Professor at Institute for Empirical Economic Research, Leipzig University. Website Course: Econometrics (winter term…
See page
People
People Doctoral Students PhD Representatives Alumni Supervisors Lecturers Coordinators Doctoral Students Afroza Alam (Supervisor: Reint Gropp ) Julian Andres Diaz Acosta…
See page