Illusive Compliance and Elusive Risk-shifting after Macroprudential Tightening: Evidence from EU Banking
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth, Fabian Wöbbeking
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2025
Abstract
We study whether and how EU banks comply with tighter macroprudential policy (MPP). Observing contractual details for more than one million securitized loans, we document an elusive risk-shifting response by EU banks in reaction to tighter loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions between 2009 and 2022. Our staggered difference-in-differences reveals that banks respond to these MPP measures at the portfolio level by issuing new loans after LTV shocks that are smaller, have shorter maturities, and show a higher collateral valuation while holding constant interest rates. Instead of contracting aggregate lending as intended by tighter MPP, banks increase the number and total volume of newly issued loans. Importantly, new loans finance especially properties in less liquid markets identified by a new European Real Estate Index (EREI), which we interpret as a novel, elusive form of risk-shifting.
Read article
Research Data Centre
Research Data Centre (IWH-RDC) Direct link to our Data Offer The IWH Research Data Centre offers external researchers access to microdata and micro-aggregated data sets that…
See page
IWH European Real Estate Index
IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI) The IWH European Real Estate Index is a new dataset that illustrates developments in the European real estate market. Besides quoted…
See page
IWH Construction Survey
IWH Construction Survey From 1993 until the first quarter of 2017, the IWH conducted regular surveys among companies. The results of these surveys could be used to promptly…
See page
IWH Industry Survey
IWH Industry Survey From 1993 until the first quarter of 2017, the IWH conducted regular surveys among companies. The results of these surveys could be used to promptly describe…
See page
Management Buyouts
Management Buyouts in Eastern Germany The study on management buyouts (MBOs) examines an important group of East German companies and their development: companies which, in the…
See page
Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters Research Cluster "Economic Dynamics and Stability" Research Questions This cluster focuses on empirical analyses of macroeconomic dynamics and stability.…
See page
Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one of the four research departments (Financial Markets – Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets –…
See page
LRF Research Profile
Research Profile of the Department of Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets The Department of Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets conducts research on the interaction of labour…
See page
Financial Stability
Financial Systems: The Anatomy of the Market Economy How the financial system is constructed, how it works, how to keep it fit and what good a bit of chocolate can do. Dossier In…
See page
