26.09.2024 • 26/2024
Joint Economic Forecast 2/2024: German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth
The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024. Looking further ahead, the institutes expect a weak recovery with growth of 0.8% (2025) and 1.3% (2026). Compared to the spring forecast, this represents a down-ward revision of 0.2 (2024) and 0.6 (2025) percentage points. “In addition to the economic downturn, the German economy is also being weighed down by structural change,” says Dr Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of Forecasting and Economic Policy at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). “Decarbonisation, digitalisation, and demographic change – alongside stronger competition with companies from China – have triggered structural adjustment processes that are dampening the long-term growth prospects of the German economy.”
Oliver Holtemöller
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Grüne Transformation und Schuldenbremse: Implikationen zusätzlicher Investitionen für öffentliche Finanzen und privaten Konsum
Andrej Drygalla, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Alessandro Sardone, Christoph Schult, Birgit Schultz, Götz Zeddies
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 4,
2023
Abstract
Das deutsche Klimaschutzgesetz sieht unter anderem vor, dass die Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2030 um 65% gegenüber dem Jahr 1990 verringert werden. Die damit einhergehende Transformation der Wirtschaft hat weitreichende Konsequenzen für die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung und die öffentlichen Finanzen. Alles in allem erfordert der Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien für die Klimaschutzziele jährliche Investitionen in der Größenordnung von 2,5% in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt. Mithilfe eines makroökonomischen Modells kann gezeigt werden, mit welchen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen zu rechnen ist, wenn die Klimaschutzziele eingehalten werden.
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German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024.…
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