Climate-resilient Economic Development in Vietnam: Insights from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis (DGE-CRED)
Andrej Drygalla, Katja Heinisch, Christoph Schult
IWH Technical Reports,
No. 1,
2024
Abstract
In a multi-sector and multi-region framework, this paper employs a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze climate-resilient economic development (DGE-CRED) in Vietnam. We calibrate sector and region-specific damage functions and quantify climate variable impacts on productivity and capital formation for various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 119, 245, and 585). Our results based on simulations and cost-benefit analyses reveal a projected 5 percent reduction in annual GDP by 2050 in the SSP 245 scenario. Adaptation measures for the dyke system are crucial to mitigate the consumption gap, but they alone cannot sufficiently address it. Climate-induced damages to agriculture and labor productivity are the primary drivers of consumption reductions, underscoring the need for focused adaptation measures in the agricultural sector and strategies to reduce labor intensity as vital policy considerations for Vietnam’s response to climate change.
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„Evaluation der Gemeinschaftsaufgabe ‚Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur‘ (GRW)“ durch einzelbetriebliche Erfolgskontrolle – Evaluationsbericht –
Matthias Brachert, Eva Dettmann, Lutz Schneider, Mirko Titze
IWH Studies,
No. 3,
2024
Abstract
Gegenstand dieses Evaluationsberichts ist die Replikation und Erweiterung der Ergebnisse des vorhergehenden Gutachtens zur Evaluation der Gemeinschaftsaufgabe ‚Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur‘ (GRW)
Der vorliegende Evaluationsbericht verfolgt zwei Ziele. Erstens aktualisiert er die Ergebnisse aus dem vorherigen Gutachten. Zweitens betrachtet er einige Aspekte zu den Wirkungen der GRW-Förderung vertiefend. Dazu gehört insbesondere die Frage, ob die GRW für die geförderten Betriebe tatsächlich einen Anreizeffekt im Sinne einer Ausweitung der Investitionstätigkeit hatte und wie sich die Effekte der Förderung unter Verwendung fortgeschrittener Produktivitätsmaße darstellt. Des Weiteren widmet sich der Evaluationsbericht einer vertiefenden Untersuchung heterogener Effekte auf sektoral disaggregierter Ebene sowie nach Betriebsgrößenklassen. Wo es möglich ist, analysiert der Bericht zudem längere Zeiträume nach dem Beginn des Förderprojekts. Schließlich widmet sich der Evaluationsbericht Fragen zur Wirtschaftlichkeit des GRW-Programms auf einzelbetrieblicher Ebene, indem er die Effekte in Beziehung setzt zur Höhe der aufgewendeten Fördermittel.
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Who Benefits from Place-based Policies? Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data
Philipp Grunau, Florian Hoffmann, Thomas Lemieux, Mirko Titze
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2024
Abstract
We study the wage and employment effects of a German place-based policy using a research design that exploits conditionally exogenous EU-wide rules governing the program parameters at the regional level. The place-based program subsidizes investments to create jobs with a subsidy rate that varies across labor market regions. The analysis uses matched data on the universe of establishments and their employees, establishment-level panel data on program participation, and regional scores that generate spatial discontinuities in program eligibility and generosity. These rich data enable us to study the incidence of the place-based program on different groups of individuals. We find that the program helps establishments create jobs that disproportionately benefit younger and less-educated workers. Funded establishments increase their wages but, unlike employment, wage gains do not persist in the long run. Employment effects estimated at the local area level are slightly larger than establishment-level estimates, suggesting limited spillover effects. Using subsidy rates as an instrumental variable for actual subsidies indicates that it costs approximately EUR 25,000 to create a new job in the economically disadvantaged areas targeted by the program.
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Financial Technologies and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission
Iftekhar Hasan, Boreum Kwak, Xiang Li
European Economic Review,
January
2024
Abstract
This study investigates whether and how financial technologies (FinTech) influence the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. We use an interacted panel vector autoregression model to explore how the effects of monetary policy shocks change with regional-level FinTech adoption. Results indicate that FinTech adoption generally mitigates the transmission of monetary policy to real GDP, consumer prices, bank loans, and housing prices, with the most significant impact observed in the weakened transmission to bank loan growth. The relaxed financial constraints, regulatory arbitrage, and intensified competition are the possible mechanisms underlying the mitigated transmission.
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The Importance of Credit Demand for Business Cycle Dynamics
Gregor von Schweinitz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 21,
2023
Abstract
This paper contributes to a better understanding of the important role that credit demand plays for credit markets and aggregate macroeconomic developments as both a source and transmitter of economic shocks. I am the first to identify a structural credit demand equation together with credit supply, aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy in a Bayesian structural VAR. The model combines informative priors on structural coefficients and multiple external instruments to achieve identification. In order to improve identification of the credit demand shocks, I construct a new granular instrument from regional mortgage origination.
I find that credit demand is quite elastic with respect to contemporaneous macroeconomic conditions, while credit supply is relatively inelastic. I show that credit supply and demand shocks matter for aggregate fluctuations, albeit at different times: credit demand shocks mostly drove the boom prior to the financial crisis, while credit supply shocks were responsible during and after the crisis itself. In an out-of-sample exercise, I find that the Covid pandemic induced a large expansion of credit demand in 2020Q2, which pushed the US economy towards a sustained recovery and helped to avoid a stagflationary scenario in 2022.
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Media Response
Media Response November 2024 IWH: Manchmal wäre der Schlussstrich die angemessenere Lösung in: TextilWirtschaft, 21.11.2024 IWH: Existenzgefahr Nun droht eine Pleitewelle in: DVZ…
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Alumni
IWH Alumni The IWH maintains contact with its former employees worldwide. We involve our alumni in our work and keep them informed, for example, with a newsletter. We also plan…
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Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice
Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) The Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) of the IWH was founded in 2014. It is a platform that bundles and…
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Evaluation of Place-based Policies
Evaluation of Place-based Policies An important part of IWH-CEP's work is the evaluation of political subsidy programmes aimed at certain regions such as the Joint Agreement for…
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Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one of the four research departments (Financial Markets – Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets –…
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