Aktuelle Trends: Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten vor und nach dem Brexit-Referendum
Lena Tonzer
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 3,
2016
Abstract
Das Votum der britischen Bevölkerung, den EU-Verbund verlassen zu wollen, hat zu Turbulenzen auf den Finanzmärkten geführt. Bereits vor dem Referendum am 23. Juni 2016 war ein starker Rückgang der Kurse britischer Bankaktien zu beobachten, wenn die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Brexits in den Umfragen über 50% stieg, verbunden mit einer Abwertung des britischen Pfunds gegenüber den meisten anderen wichtigen Währungen einschließlich des Euro.
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Consumer Bankruptcy, Bank Mergers and Information
Jason Allen, H. Evren Damar, David Martinez-Miera
Review of Finance,
Nr. 4,
2016
Abstract
This article analyzes the relationship between consumer bankruptcy patterns and the destruction of soft information caused by mergers. Using a major Canadian bank merger as a source of exogenous variation in local banking conditions, we show that local markets affected by the merger exhibit an increase in consumer bankruptcy rates post-merger. The evidence is consistent with the most plausible mechanism being the disruption of consumer–bank relationships. Markets affected by the merger show a decrease in the merging institutions’ branch presence and market share, including those stemming from higher switching rates. We rule out alternative mechanisms such as changes in quantity of credit, loan rates, or observable borrower characteristics.
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24.06.2016 • 26/2016
Großbritanniens Nein zur EU wird für beide Seiten teuer
Die Briten haben sich heute gegen einen Verbleib ihres Landes in der Europäischen Union entschieden. Sie stimmten heute überraschend klar dafür, den EU-Verbund zu verlassen. Das Ausscheiden Großbritanniens aus der EU hat nicht nur politisch, sondern auch ökonomisch tiefgreifende Konsequenzen für das Land selbst, aber auch für das übrige Europa. „Entscheidend ist jetzt die Reaktion der verbleibenden Länder auf das Votum, insbesondere die Frankreichs und Deutschlands“, sagt Reint E. Gropp, Präsident des Leibniz-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH).
Reint E. Gropp
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21.06.2016 • 25/2016
Bundesverfassungsgericht entscheidet richtig zu Draghis Anleihekäufen
Ich begrüße die Entscheidung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts. Der Gerichtshof hat der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) erlaubt, in einer Krise kurzfristige Staatsanleihen der Euro-Länder im Sekundärmarkt zu kaufen. Ich bin erleichtert, dass das Gericht erkannt hat, dass das Programm durch die ausstehende Menge an kurzfristigen Staatsanleihen begrenzt ist und ein ESM-Programm (ESM: Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus) vorhanden sein muss.
Reint E. Gropp
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20.06.2016 • 24/2016
Möglicher Brexit beunruhigt die Finanzmärkte
Am 23. Juni entscheiden die Briten in einem Referendum über die Frage, ob ihr Land in der Europäischen Union bleiben soll oder nicht.
Reint E. Gropp
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Exporting Liquidity: Branch Banking and Financial Integration
Erik P. Gilje, Elena Loutskina, Philip E. Strahan
Journal of Finance,
Nr. 3,
2016
Abstract
Using exogenous liquidity windfalls from oil and natural gas shale discoveries, we demonstrate that bank branch networks help integrate U.S. lending markets. Banks exposed to shale booms enjoy liquidity inflows, which increase their capacity to originate and hold new loans. Exposed banks increase mortgage lending in nonboom counties, but only where they have branches and only for hard‐to‐securitize mortgages. Our findings suggest that contracting frictions limit the ability of arm's length finance to integrate credit markets fully. Branch networks continue to play an important role in financial integration, despite the development of securitization markets.
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Time-varying Volatility, Financial Intermediation and Monetary Policy
S. Eickmeier, N. Metiu, Esteban Prieto
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 19,
2016
Abstract
We document that expansionary monetary policy shocks are less effective at stimulating output and investment in periods of high volatility compared to periods of low volatility, using a regime-switching vector autoregression. Exogenous policy changes are identified by adapting an external instruments approach to the non-linear model. The lower effectiveness of monetary policy can be linked to weaker responses of credit costs, suggesting a financial accelerator mechanism that is weaker in high volatility periods. To rationalize our robust empirical results, we use a macroeconomic model in which financial intermediaries endogenously choose their capital structure. In the model, the leverage choice of banks depends on the volatility of aggregate shocks. In low volatility periods, financial intermediaries lever up, which makes their balance sheets more sensitive to aggregate shocks and the financial accelerator more effective. On the contrary, in high volatility periods, banks decrease leverage, which renders the financial accelerator less effective; this in turn decreases the ability of monetary policy to improve funding conditions and credit supply, and thereby to stimulate the economy. Hence, we provide a novel explanation for the non-linear effects of monetary stimuli observed in the data, linking the effectiveness of monetary policy to the procyclicality of leverage.
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The Role of Complexity for Bank Risk during the Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Novel Dataset
Thomas Krause, Talina Sondershaus, Lena Tonzer
Abstract
We construct a novel dataset to measure banks’ business and geographical complexity. Using these measures of complexity, we evaluate how they relate to banks’ idiosyncratic and systemic riskiness. The sample covers stock listed banks in the euro area from 2007 to 2014. Our results show that banks have increased their total number of subsidiaries while business and geographical complexity have declined. Bank stability is significantly affected by our complexity measures, whereas the direction of the effect differs across the complexity measures: Banks with a higher degree of geographical complexity and a higher share of foreign subsidiaries seem to be less stable. In contrast, a higher share of non-bank subsidiaries significantly decreases the probability for a state aid request during the recent crisis period. This heterogeneity advises against the use of a single complexity measure when evaluating the implications of bank complexity.
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Central Bank Transparency and Cross-border Banking
Stefan Eichler, Helge Littke, Lena Tonzer
Abstract
We analyze the effect of central bank transparency on cross-border bank activities. Based on a panel gravity model for cross-border bank claims for 21 home and 47 destination countries from 1998 to 2010, we find strong empirical evidence that a rise in central bank transparency in the destination country, on average, increases cross-border claims. Using interaction models, we find that the positive effect of central bank transparency on cross-border claims is only significant if the central bank is politically independent. Central bank transparency and credibility are thus considered complements by banks investing abroad.
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Kommentar: Die EZB tut, was sie kann – nun ist die Politik gefordert
Reint E. Gropp
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 2,
2016
Abstract
Der Euroraum verharrt in einer tiefen, vierfachen Krise. Die erste ist eine Wachstumskrise. Im Euroraum liegt die wirtschaftliche Leistung immer noch unterhalb des Niveaus von vor der Finanzkrise 2008. Zudem leidet der Euroraum weiterhin unter hoher Arbeitslosigkeit und zu niedriger Inflation. Der Euroraum leidet außerdem unter einem zu geringen Produktivitätswachstum, vor allem bei den Dienstleistungen. Es fehlt hier an Innovationsdynamik und Investitionen.
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