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Dr Christoph Schult

Dr Christoph Schult
Current Position

since 7/16

Economist in the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

Research Interests
  • dynamic macroeconomics
  • energy economics

Christoph Schult joined the Department of Macroeconomics in July 2016. His research focuses on dynamic macroeconomics, forecasting and energy economics.

Christoph Schult received his bachelor's degree from Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and his master's degree from Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. He got his PhD degree in 2021.

Your contact

Dr Christoph Schult
Dr Christoph Schult
- Department Macroeconomics
Send Message +49 345 7753-806

Publications

Citations
183

Recent Publications

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Climate-resilient Economic Development in Vietnam: Insights from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis (DGE-CRED)

Andrej Drygalla Katja Heinisch Christoph Schult

in: IWH Technical Reports, No. 1, 2024

Abstract

<p>In a multi-sector and multi-region framework, this paper employs a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze climate-resilient economic development (DGE-CRED) in Vietnam. We calibrate sector and region-specific damage functions and quantify climate variable impacts on productivity and capital formation for various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 119, 245, and 585). Our results based on simulations and cost-benefit analyses reveal a projected 5 percent reduction in annual GDP by 2050 in the SSP 245 scenario. Adaptation measures for the dyke system are crucial to mitigate the consumption gap, but they alone cannot sufficiently address it. Climate-induced damages to agriculture and labor productivity are the primary drivers of consumption reductions, underscoring the need for focused adaptation measures in the agricultural sector and strategies to reduce labor intensity as vital policy considerations for Vietnam’s response to climate change.</p>

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Analyse der Effekte des Atomausstiegs auf die deutschen Großhandelsstrompreise 2023

Christoph Schult

in: Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 3, 2024

Abstract

<p>Seit dem Atomausstieg am 15. April 2023 sind die Großhandelsstrompreise in Deutschland deutlich gesunken. Innerhalb des deutschen Merit-Order-Systems galten Atomkraftwerke als die kostengünstigste Form der Stromerzeugung. Hätten die Atomkraftwerke weiterbetrieben werden können, wären die Großhandelsstrompreise für den Zeitraum vom 16. April 2023 bis zum 31. Dezember 2023 voraussichtlich um 1% bis 8% niedriger gewesen. Insbesondere im Oktober hätte der Weiterbetrieb der Atomkraftwerke die Großhandelsstrompreise gesenkt, vor allem in Zeiten hoher Stromnachfrage und geringer Verfügbarkeit erneuerbarer Energien.</p>

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Kosten der Maßnahmen aus dem Rentenpaket II vom März 2024 und Finanzierungsoptionen

Oliver Holtemöller Christoph Schult Götz Zeddies

in: IWH Studies, No. 2, 2024

Abstract

Im Zuge des demografischen Wandels nehmen die Ausgaben der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung in Deutschland in Zukunft deutlich zu, während die Lohnsumme, aus der die Beiträge zu finanzieren sind, gedämpft wird. Immer weniger Beitragszahler stehen in dem umlagefinanzierten System immer mehr Rentnern gegenüber. Bisher hat der Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor in der Rentenformel dafür gesorgt, dass sowohl Beitragszahler als auch Rentenempfänger durch den demografischen Wandel belastet werden. Das von der Bundesregierung vorgeschlagene Rentenpaket II hebt die Wirkung des Nachhaltigkeitsfaktors durch eine Haltelinie für das Rentenniveau faktisch auf. Dies führt zu erheblichen Mehrausgaben der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung gegenüber dem bisherigen Rechtsrahmen. Dadurch wird der ohnehin auf deutlich über 20% steigende Beitragssatz nochmal um etwa einen Prozentpunkt stärker zunehmen. Das mit den Rentenpaket II geplante Generationenkapital kann aufgrund seines geringen Volumens den Anstieg des Beitragssatzes nur um etwa 0,2 Prozentpunkte abfedern, und das auch nur, wenn sich die Erwartungen an die Rendite nach Kosten erfüllen. Eine Beibehaltung des Nachhaltigkeitsfaktors und eine Stärkung individueller Vorsorge inklusive individueller Kapitalansprüche wäre eine gute Alternative zum Rentenpaket II.

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Working Papers

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The Effects of the Iberian Exception Mechanism on Wholesale Electricity Prices and Consumer Inflation: A Synthetic-controls Approach

Miguel Haro Ruiz Christoph Schult Christoph Wunder

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 5, 2024

Abstract

This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation.

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Is Risk the Fuel of the Business Cycle? Financial Frictions and Oil Market Disturbances

Christoph Schult

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 4, 2024

Abstract

I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the United States that incorporates oil market shocks and risk shocks working through credit market frictions. The findings of this analysis indicate that risk shocks play a crucial role during the Great Recession and the Dot-Com bubble but not during other economic downturns. Credit market frictions do not amplify persistent oil market shocks. This result holds as long as entry and exit rates of entrepreneurs are independent of the business cycle.

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How Forecast Accuracy Depends on Conditioning Assumptions

Carola Engelke Katja Heinisch Christoph Schult

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 18, 2019

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which errors in economic forecasts are driven by initial assumptions that prove to be incorrect ex post. Therefore, we construct a new data set comprising an unbalanced panel of annual forecasts from different institutions forecasting German GDP and the underlying assumptions. We explicitly control for different forecast horizons to proxy the information available at the release date. Over 75% of squared errors of the GDP forecast comove with the squared errors in their underlying assumptions. The root mean squared forecast error for GDP in our regression sample of 1.52% could be reduced to 1.13% by setting all assumption errors to zero. This implies that the accuracy of the assumptions is of great importance and that forecasters should reveal the framework of their assumptions in order to obtain useful policy recommendations based on economic forecasts.

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Topics

Green Transition
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