In its Spring Report, the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group states that the ongoing pandemic will delay the upswing in Germany until well into the summer. This also applies to East Germany, even more so as at present (mid-April) Thuringia, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt are the states with the highest incidences nationwide. Until last autumn, the pandemic was not widespread in East Germany. That is one reason why production here in 2020 shrank less (by 3.8%) than in Germany as a whole (–4.9%). Oliver Holtemöller, Head of the Department Macroeconomics and Vice President at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) says that also the special economic structure contributed to this: In East Germany, two economic sectors that expanded last year have a greater weight than at the national level; these are the construction sector and in particular the sector "public administration, education and health" (see figure).

If the rates of change in the main economic sectors in 2020 for Germany are weighted with the shares of total production applicable to East Germany, the result is therefore a decline in total gross value added that is about half a percentage point below the actual decline. In addition, the hard-hit automotive industry plays a smaller role in the East than in West Germany. Furthermore, private incomes are likely to have developed more favourably. While gross wages and salaries fell by 1.1% in West Germany, they increased by 1% in the East. One reason for this is that the volume of work had to be cut back less. Moreover, while wages are still lower in East Germany, they trend to grow a bit faster than in the West. Finally, the pension adjustment is 0.7 percentage points higher each year than in the West until the East's pension value will be fully aligned with that of the West.