In August, the number of corporate bankruptcies once again experienced a strong decline. Excluding very small firms being not listed in the business register, a total of 697 companies declared bankruptcy last month. This was a 22% decline in relation to July 2020 and 26% decline in relation to August last year. In contradistinction to prior months, the number of jobs losses associated with these bankruptcies also declined considerably. Of the companies declaring bankruptcy in August, the largest 10% (in terms of headcount) employed a total of 13,500 people. The corresponding figure in July 2020 was 23,600. By contrast, the largest 10% of companies in January 2020 employed just 6,700 people.

To produce an outlook for coming months, IWH researchers will primary draw on bankruptcy filing data. When a company files for bankruptcy, it usually takes two to three months for the courts to announce the start of bankruptcy proceedings. Only then does the bankruptcy appear in official statistics. “In October, the government’s partial reinstatement of a company’s obligation to file for bankruptcy upon insolvency will lead to a moderate increase in bankruptcy filings,” says Steffen Müller, head of the IWH Department of Structural Change and Productivity and the director of its Bankruptcy Research Unit. However, the suspension of the requirement to file for bankruptcy due to overindebtedness will remain in place. Furthermore, companies can still take advantage of various forms of government assistance. Accordingly, IWH researchers do not anticipate a dramatic increase in the number of new bankruptcy filings this autumn. Based on bankruptcy filings up to the end of the August, Müller also expects the number of proceedings announced by the courts to remain stable at a low level over the coming two months.