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Aktuelle Trends: Auf dem Weg zur europäischen Bankenunion: Verzögerte Umsetzung der Abwicklungsrichtlinie

Michael Koetter, Thomas Krause, Eleonora Sfrappini, Lena Tonzer
Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 2, 2021
Abstract

In Reaktion auf die Erfahrungen aus der letzten Finanzmarktkrise veröffentlichte die Europäische Kommission im Mai 2014 die Richtlinie zur Sanierung und Abwicklung von Kreditinstituten (Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, BRRD). Die Richtlinie legt Regeln zur Abwicklung und Restrukturierung von Banken einschließlich eines Bail-in-Mechanismus fest, der das Verlustrisiko beim Scheitern einer Bank vorrangig deren Anteilseignern und Gläubigern aufbürdet.

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Cultural Resilience, Religion, and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season

Iftekhar Hasan, Stefano Manfredonia, Felix Noth
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 9, 2021
Abstract
This paper investigates the critical role of religion in the economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. Exploiting the 2005 hurricane season in the southeast United States, we document that establishments in counties with higher religious adherence rates saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005-2010. Our results further suggest that a particular religious denomination does not drive the effect. We observe that different aspects of religion, such as adherence, shared experiences from ancestors, and institutionalised features, all drive the effect on recovery. Our results matter since they underline the importance of cultural characteristics like religion during and after economic crises.
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Alone at Home: The Impact of Social Distancing on Norm-consistent Behavior

Sabrina Jeworrek, Joschka Waibel
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 8, 2021
Abstract
Around the globe, the COVID-19 pandemic has turned daily live upside down since social distancing is probably the most effective means of containing the virus until herd immunity is reached. Social norms have been shown to be an important determinant of social distancing behaviors. By conducting two experiments and using the priming method to manipulate social isolation recollections, we study whether social distancing has in turn affected norms of prosociality and norm compliance. The normative expectations of what behaviors others would approve or disapprove in our experimental setting did not change. Looking at actual behavior, however, we find that persistent social distancing indeed caused a decline in prosociality – even after the relaxation of social distancing rules and in times of optimism. At the same time, our results contain some good news since subjects seem still to care for norms and become more prosocial once again after we draw their attention to the empirical norm of how others have previously behaved in a similar situation.
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The Nexus between Loan Portfolio Size and Volatility: Does Bank Capital Regulation Matter?

Franziska Bremus, Melina Ludolph
Journal of Banking and Finance, June 2021
Abstract
This paper analyzes the effects of bank capital regulation on the link between bank size and volatility. Using bank-level data for 27 advanced economies over the 2000–2014 period, we estimate a power law that relates the volume of a bank’s loan portfolio to the volatility of loan growth. Our analysis reveals, first, that more stringent capital regulation weakens the size-volatility nexus. Hence, in countries with more stringent capital regulation, large banks show, ceteris paribus, lower loan portfolio volatility. Second, the effect of tighter capital requirements on the size-volatility nexus becomes stronger for the upper tail of the bank size distribution. This is in line with capitalization decreasing with bank size, such that larger banks tend to be more affected by increasing capital requirements. Third, in countries with higher sectoral capital buffers, the size-volatility nexus is weaker.
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Political Cycles in Bank Lending to the Government

Michael Koetter, Alexander Popov
Review of Financial Studies, No. 6, 2021
Abstract
We study how political party turnover after German state elections affects banks’ lending to the regional government. We find that between 1992 and 2018, party turnover at the state level leads to a sharp and substantial increase in lending by local savings banks to their home-state government. This effect is accompanied by an equivalent reduction in private lending. A statistical association between political party turnover and government lending is absent for comparable cooperative banks that exhibit a similar regional organization and business model. Our results suggest that political frictions may interfere with government-owned banks’ local development objectives.
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Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Pandemic Delays Upswing — Demography Slows Growth

Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Claus Michelsen, Torsten Schmidt, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst, May 2021
Abstract
Das erste Jahr der Corona-Pandemie stand in Deutschland im Zeichen extremer Schwankungen der ökonomischen Aktivität und einer massiv gelähmten Binnenwirtschaft. In ihrem Frühjahrsgutachten gehen die Institute davon aus, dass der derzeitige Shutdown zunächst fortgesetzt und ab Mitte Mai bis zum Ende des dritten Quartals nach und nach aufgehoben wird. Im Zuge der Lockerungen wird sich vor allem der private Konsum kräftig erholen. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr um 3,7 % und im kommenden Jahr um 3,9 % zulegen.
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“The Good News about Bad News”: Information about Past Organizational Failure and Its Impact on Worker Productivity

Sabrina Jeworrek, Vanessa Mertins, Michael Vlassopoulos
Leadership Quarterly, No. 3, 2021
Abstract
Failure in organizations is very common. Little is known about whether leaders should provide information about past organizational failure to followers and how this might affect their future performance. We conducted a field experiment in which we recruited temporary workers to carry out a phone campaign to attract new volunteers and randomly assigned them to either receive or not to receive information about a failed mail campaign pursuing the same goal. We find that informed workers performed better, regardless of whether they had previously worked on the failed mail campaign or not. Evidence from a second field experiment with students asked to support voluntarily a campaign for reducing food waste corroborates the finding. We explore the role of leadership tactics behind our findings in a third online survey experiment. We conclude that information about past failure is unlikely to have a negative impact on work performance, and might even lead to performance improvement. Implications for future research on the relevance of leadership tactics when giving such information are discussed.
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Konjunktur aktuell: Zurück ins Leben – Zunahme persönlicher Kontakte beflügelt wirtschaftliche Aktivität

Konjunktur aktuell, No. 2, 2021
Abstract
Im Sommer 2021 expandiert die weltwirtschaftliche Produktion kräftig, hauptsächlich dank rasch voranschreitender Impfkampagnen in den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften des Westens. Geld- und Finanzpolitik bleiben dort expansiv, und die konjunkturelle Dynamik wird auch in den kommenden Quartalen hoch sein. In vielen Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern wird die Pandemie hingegen das ganze Jahr 2021 über noch auf der Wirtschaft lasten. In Deutschland sind die konjunkturellen Aussichten günstig, weil die Corona-Restriktionen nach und nach aufgehoben werden. Das BIP wird 2021 um 3,9% und 2022 um 4,0% zunehmen. Die Produktion in Ostdeutschland dürfte in beiden Jahren um jeweils 3% zulegen.
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Projektion der Ausgaben für die Beamtenversorgung in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2080

Oliver Holtemöller, Götz Zeddies
IWH Technical Reports, No. 2, 2021
Abstract
In den vergangenen Jahren hat die Zahl der Pensionäre (ehemalige Beamte, Richter und Soldaten) in Deutschland deutlich zugenommen. Damit gehen immer höhere Versorgungsausgaben einher, die Bund, Länder und Gemeinden aufbringen müssen. Der demographische Wandel könnte in Zukunft nicht nur ausgabeseitig eine Herausforderung aufgrund weiter steigender Versorgungsausgaben darstellen, sondern auch auf der Einnahmeseite, weil die Versorgungslasten von immer weniger Steuerzahlern getragen werden müssen. Im Folgenden werden mit Hilfe eines Kohorten-Komponenten-Modells die Zahl der Versorgungsempfänger und die daraus resultierenden Versorgungsausgaben für Bund, Länder und Gemeinden bis zum Jahr 2080 geschätzt und die Konsequenzen für die öffentlichen Haushalte abgeleitet. Es zeigt sich, dass die Versorgungsausgaben der Gebietskörperschaften zwar ansteigen, die Versorgungs-Steuerquote insgesamt allerdings relativ stabil bleibt. Da die Zahl der Versorgungsempfänger bei Ländern und Gemeinden bis zum Jahr 2080 kaum zunehmen und beim Bund sogar zurückgehen wird, stehen die Gebietskörperschaften infolge der Pensionslasten vor weitaus kleineren finanziellen Herausforderungen als die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung angesichts des wachsenden Anteils der Rentenempfänger an der Gesamtbevölkerung.
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Conditional Macroeconomic Forecasts: Disagreement, Revisions and Forecast Errors

Alexander Glas, Katja Heinisch
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 7, 2021
Abstract
Using data from the European Central Bank‘s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we analyse the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the heterogeneity, updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are related to assumptions about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. Our findings indicate that inflation forecasts are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are used primarily to predict output growth and unemployment. Expectations about exchange rates and wage growth also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than oil prices and interest rates. We show that survey participants can considerably improve forecast accuracy for macroeconomic outcomes by reducing prediction errors for external conditions. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the expectation formation process of experts.
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