Refugee Migration – A Global Humanitarian Crisis Reaches Germany
Policy Brief Nr.,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
Die gegenwärtige Situation der Flüchtlingsmigration nach Europa trägt krisenhafte Züge, zum einen aufgrund der großen Zahl der Flüchtenden, zum anderen, weil das bestehende Asylsystem in Europa grundsätzliche Probleme aufweist und daher der Lage nicht gewachsen ist – und das, obwohl die Problematik an sich nicht neu ist. Die Integration der ankommenden Menschen in Gesellschaft und Arbeitsmarkt hat sprachliche, qualifikatorische, kulturelle und politische Dimensionen.
Im Leibniz-Forschungsverbund “Krisen einer globalisierten Welt“ arbeiten 23 Leibniz-Institute zusammen, um inter- und transdisziplinär die Mechanismen und Dynamiken von Krisen und deren wechselseitige Interdependenzen besser zu verstehen. Im vorliegenden Policy Brief wird die aktuelle Flüchtlingsmigration nach Europa aus verschiedenen Perspektiven betrachtet und Literatur aus den beteiligten Instituten zu diesem Thema in einen Kontext gesetzt.
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16.12.2015 • 45/2015
German Economy: Strong domestic demand compensates for weak exports
The upturn of the German economy is expected to gain further momentum as a consequence of strong domestic demand. Real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.6% in 2016. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.9%. Unemployment is expected to rise slightly because it will take time to integrate refugees into the labour market.
Oliver Holtemöller
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03.12.2015 • 44/2015
Migration Affects Labour Market in Eastern Germany
Migration increasingly affects the labour market in Eastern Germany, having effects on employment and unemployment figures as well as the number of recipients of social assistance benefits under the SGB II regulations. Particularly with countries in Middle and Eastern Europe, countries affected by the European debt and confidence crisis and with people seeking asylum, there are large increases meeting the dimensions in Western Germany. However, migrants overall still form a significantly smaller percentage of the population and other labour market parameters in Eastern Germany, since migration was a lot stronger in Western Germany during the last decades. While on the short run negative effects on unemployment have to be expected, there are also chances, in the medium- and long-term, to soften the expectable demographic problems, if integration and qualification are supported.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Electoral Credit Supply Cycles Among German Savings Banks
Reint E. Gropp, Vahid Saadi
IWH Online,
No. 11,
2015
Abstract
In this note we document political lending cycles for German savings banks. We find that savings banks on average increase supply of commercial loans by €7.6 million in the year of a local election in their respective county or municipality (Kommunalwahl). For all savings banks combined this amounts to €3.4 billion (0.4% of total credit supply in Germany in a complete electoral cycle) more credit in election years. Credit growth at savings banks increases by 0.7 percentage points, which corresponds to a 40% increase relative to non-election years. Consistent with this result, we also find that the performance of the savings banks follows the same electoral cycle. The loans that the savings banks generate during election years perform worse in the first three years of maturity and loan losses tend to be realized in the middle of the election cycle.
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International Banking and Liquidity Risk Transmission: Evidence from Canada
James Chapman, H. Evren Damar
IMF Economic Review,
No. 3,
2015
Abstract
This paper investigates how liquidity conditions in Canada may affect domestic and/or foreign lending of globally active Canadian banks, and whether this transmission is influenced by individual bank characteristics. It finds that Canadian banks expanded their foreign lending during the recent financial crisis, often through acquisitions of foreign banks. It also finds evidence that internal capital markets play a role in the lending activities of globally active Canadian banks during times of heightened liquidity risk.
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Uncertainty, Bank Lending, and Bank-level Heterogeneity
Claudia M. Buch, Manuel Buchholz, Lena Tonzer
IMF Economic Review,
No. 4,
2015
Abstract
We analyze how uncertainty affects bank lending. We measure uncertainty as the cross-sectional dispersion of shocks to bank-level variables. Comparing this measure of uncertainty in banking to more traditional measures of uncertainty, we find similar but no identical patterns. Higher uncertainty in banking has negative effects on bank lending. This effect is heterogeneous across banks: lending by banks that are better capitalized and have higher liquidity buffers tends to be affected less. Also, the degree of internationalization matters, as loan supply by banks in financially open countries is affected less by uncertainty. The impact of the ownership status of the individual bank is less important, in contrast.
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Banks and Sovereign Risk: A Granular View
Claudia M. Buch, Michael Koetter, Jana Ohls
Abstract
We identify the determinants of all German banks’ sovereign debt exposures between 2005 and 2013 and test for the implications of these exposures for bank risk. Larger, more capital market affine, and less capitalised banks hold more sovereign bonds. Around 15% of all German banks never hold sovereign bonds during the sample period. The sensitivity of sovereign bond holdings by banks to eurozone membership and inflation increased significantly since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Since the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis, banks prefer sovereigns with lower debt ratios and lower bond yields. Finally, we find that riskiness of government bond holdings affects bank risk only since 2010. This confirms the existence of a nexus between government debt and bank risk.
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Ostdeutsche Wirtschaft: Konjunktur bleibt im Jahr 2015 kräftig, strukturelle Probleme hemmen
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß, Cornelia Lang, Axel Lindner, Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig, Birgit Schultz
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 3,
2015
Abstract
Die Wirtschaft in Ostdeutschland (ohne Berlin) dürfte im Jahr 2015 um 1,5% expandieren. Sie partizipiert dank der engen Integration in den gesamtdeutschen Konjunkturverbund am bundesweiten Aufschwung des privaten Konsums und der Investitionen. Wegen der überwiegenden Orientierung der Exporte auf den Euroraum und die angrenzenden mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder dürfte die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft auch von der dort einsetzenden Erholung profitieren. Allerdings gibt der Handel mit Russland wohl weiter nach.
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Censored Fractional Response Model: Estimating Heterogeneous Relative Risk Aversion of European Households
Qizhou Xiong
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2015
Abstract
This paper estimates relative risk aversion using the observed shares of risky assets and characteristics of households from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey of the European Central Bank. Given that the risky share is a fractional response variable belonging to [0, 1], this paper proposes a censored fractional response estimation method using extremal quantiles to approximate the censoring thresholds. Considering that participation in risky asset markets is costly, I estimate both the heterogeneous relative risk aversion and participation cost using a working sample that includes both risky asset holders and non-risky asset holders by treating the zero risky share as the result of heterogeneous self-censoring. Estimation results show lower participation costs and higher relative risk aversion than what was previously estimated. The estimated median relative risk aversions of eight European countries range from 4.6 to 13.6. However, the results are sensitive to households’ perception of the risky asset market return and volatility.
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Bank Market Power, Factor Reallocation, and Aggregate Growth
R. Inklaar, Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
Journal of Financial Stability,
2015
Abstract
Using a unique firm-level sample of approximately 700,000 firm-year observations of German small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), this study seeks to identify the effect of bank market power on aggregate growth components. We test for a pre-crisis sample whether bank market power spurs or hinders the reallocation of resources across informationally opaque firms. Identification relies on the dependence on external finance in each industry and the regional demarcation of regional banking markets in Germany. The results show that bank markups spur aggregate SME growth, primarily through technical change and the reallocation of resources. Banks seem to need sufficient markups to generate the necessary private information to allocate financial funds efficiently.
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