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Our Projects 07.2022 ‐ 12.2026 Evaluation of the InvKG and the federal STARK programme On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection, the IWH and the RWI…
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Preferred Field of Study and Academic Performance
Francesco Berlingieri, André Diegmann, Maresa Sprietsma
Economics of Education Review,
August
2023
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of studying the first-choice university subject on dropout and switching field of study for a cohort of students in Germany. Using detailed survey data, and employing an instrumental variable strategy based on variation in the local field of study availability, we provide evidence that students who are not enrolled in their preferred field of study are more likely to change their field, delay graduation and drop out of university. The estimated impact on dropout is particularly strong among students of low socio-economic status and is likely to be driven by lower effort and motivation.
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Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation
Elisabeth Kempf, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer, Margarita Tsoutsoura
Journal of Financial Economics,
No. 2,
2023
Abstract
Does investors’ political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by U.S. institutional investors. Ideological alignment on both economic and social issues plays a role. Our empirical strategy ensures direct economic effects of foreign elections or government ties between countries are not driving the result. Ideological distance between countries also explains variation in bilateral investment. Combined, our findings imply ideological alignment is an important, omitted factor in models of international capital allocation.
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08.09.2022 • 22/2022
Energy crisis in Germany
Dwindling gas supplies from Russia and soaring prices for gas and electricity are leading to massive real income losses and a recession in Europe and Germany. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 1.1% in 2022 and decrease by 1.4% in 2023. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 7.9% in 2022 and 9.5% in 2023.
Oliver Holtemöller
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21.06.2022 • 14/2022
War drives up energy prices ‒ High inflation weighs on economy
While the lifting of nationwide coronavirus regulations boosts many service sectors such as the hospitality industry, supply bottlenecks are likely to weigh on the manufacturing sector throughout the summer and high inflation will dampen private consumption. Gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany is expected to decline slightly in the second quarter of 2022. The situation in the manufacturing sector is expected to ease towards the end of the year. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that GDP will increase by 1.5% in 2022, following an increase by 2.9% in 2021. In East Germany, GDP will increase by 1%.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Konjunktur aktuell: Krieg treibt Energiepreise – Hohe Inflation belastet Konjunktur
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 2,
2022
Abstract
Die Weltwirtschaft ist auch im Sommerhalbjahr verschiedenen schweren Belastungen ausgesetzt, die die Preise stark steigen lassen. Produktionsstilllegungen im Zuge der chinesischen Null-Covid-Strategie und der Angriff gegen die Ukraine heizen die Inflation weltweit an. Auch in Deutschland wird die konjunkturelle Entwicklung durch die mit dem Krieg verbundenen Preissteigerungen sowie unterbrochene Lieferketten schwer belastet. Die konjunkturellen Aussichten für den Sommer sind trüb. Das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird im Jahr 2022 um 1,5% zunehmen. In Ostdeutschland liegt der Zuwachs bei 1%.
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Preferred Field of Study and Academic Performance
Francesco Berlingieri, André Diegmann, Maresa Sprietsma
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of studying the first-choice university subject on dropout and switching field of study for a cohort of students in Germany. Using detailed survey data, and employing an instrumental variable strategy based on variation in the local field of study availability, we provide evidence that students who are not enrolled in their preferred field of study are more likely to change their field, delay graduation and drop out of university. The estimated impact on dropout is particularly strong among students of low socio-economic status and is driven by lower academic performance and motivation.
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The Impact of Political Uncertainty on Institutional Ownership
Bill Francis, Iftekhar Hasan, Yun Zhu
Journal of Financial Stability,
December
2021
Abstract
This paper provides original evidence from institutional investors that political uncertainty greatly affects investment behavior. Using institutional holdings of common stock, we find that institutions significantly reduce their holdings by 0.8–2.3% points during presidential election years. Such effect holds for gubernatorial elections with cross-state-border difference-in-difference analysis and for tests using a political uncertainty index. The effect is the opposite for American Depository Receipts (ADRs). In addition, we find that institutions benefit financially from the observed strategy, and such strategy is in line with predicted outcomes of presidential election polls.
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Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century
Carol Corrado, Jonathan Haskel, Javier Miranda, Daniel Sichel
NBER Studies in Income and Wealth,
2021
Abstract
Measuring innovation is challenging both for researchers and for national statisticians, and it is increasingly important in light of the ongoing digital revolution. National accounts and many other economic statistics were designed before the emergence of the digital economy and the growing importance of intangible capital. They do not yet fully capture the wide range of innovative activity that is observed in modern economies.
This volume examines how to measure innovation, track its effects on economic activity and prices, and understand how it has changed the structure of production processes, labor markets, and organizational form and operation in business. The contributors explore new approaches to, and data sources for, measurement—such as collecting data for a particular innovation as opposed to a firm, and the use of trademarks for tracking innovation. They also consider the connections between university-based R&D and business startups, and the potential impacts of innovation on income distribution.
The research suggests potential strategies for expanding current measurement frameworks to better capture innovative activity, such as more detailed tracking of global value chains to identify innovation across time and space, and expanding the measurement of the GDP impacts of innovation in fields such as consumer content delivery and cloud computing.
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Introduction to "Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century"
Javier Miranda
Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century,
NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol 78 /
2021
Abstract
Measuring innovation is challenging both for researchers and for national statisticians, and it is increasingly important in light of the ongoing digital revolution. National accounts and many other economic statistics were designed before the emergence of the digital economy and the growing importance of intangible capital. They do not yet fully capture the wide range of innovative activity that is observed in modern economies. This volume examines how to measure innovation, track its effects on economic activity and prices, and understand how it has changed the structure of production processes, labor markets, and organizational form and operation in business. The contributors explore new approaches to, and data sources for, measurement—such as collecting data for a particular innovation as opposed to a firm, and the use of trademarks for tracking innovation. They also consider the connections between university-based R&D and business startups, and the potential impacts of innovation on income distribution. The research suggests potential strategies for expanding current measurement frameworks to better capture innovative activity, such as more detailed tracking of global value chains to identify innovation across time and space, and expanding the measurement of the GDP impacts of innovation in fields such as consumer content delivery and cloud computing.
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