Ludwig (Interview)
About the CIA and a glass of red wine ... Professor Dr Udo Ludwig on the beginnings of our institute The core of the IWH founding team came from the Institute for Applied Economic…
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Overview, Contact and Opening Hours
Library The IWH scientific library is specialized in economics, corresponding to the Institute's research profile. The library stock contains especially literature on the…
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IWH EXplore
IWH EXplore Competitive Funding for Research Projects with External Involvement at IWH IWH EXplore gives scientists the opportunity to acquire supplemental funding, in addition to…
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IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics
Why Doctoral Studies at IWH? The IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics – one of the Top 20 places to do a PhD ( INOMICS Career Guide 2023 ) The Halle Institute for Economic Research…
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Research
Research IWH Brown Bag Seminar Submission of IWH Discussion Papers IWH-ReNEc PhD Courses Research Stays Abroad Journals IWH Open Access Strategy (in German) Best Paper Award…
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Procurement and Data Acquisition
Procurement and Data Acquisition Checklist for national tendering procedures (in German) Explanation of terms and definitions in the context of tendering procedures (in German)…
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Mental Health
Mental Health Mental health encompasses emotional, psychological, and social well-being, influencing cognition, perception, and behavior. According to World Health Organization…
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IWH Open Access Strategy
Open Access Strategy IWH Open Access Strategy (in German, November 2015)
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Monetary Policy in an Oil-dependent Economy in the Presence of Multiple Shocks
Andrej Drygalla
Review of World Economics,
February
2023
Abstract
Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014. Both contributed to significant depreciation pressures on the ruble and led the central bank to give up its exchange rate management strategy. Against this background, this work estimates a small open economy model for Russia, featuring an oil price sector and extended by a specification of the foreign exchange market to correctly account for systematic central bank interventions. We find that shocks to the oil price and private capital flows substantially affect domestic variables such as inflation and output. Simulations for the estimated actual strategy and alternative regimes suggest that the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks can substantially be lowered by adopting some form of inflation targeting. Strategies to target the nominal exchange rate or the ruble price of oil prove to be inferior.
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What Explains International Interest Rate Co-Movement?
Annika Camehl, Gregor von Schweinitz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 3,
2023
Abstract
We show that global supply and demand shocks are important drivers of interest rate co-movement across seven advanced economies. Beyond that, local structural shocks transmit internationally via aggregate demand channels, and central banks react predominantly to domestic macroeconomic developments: unexpected monetary policy tightening decreases most foreign interest rates, while expansionary local supply and demand shocks increase them. To disentangle determinants of international interest rate co-movement, we use a Bayesian structural panel vector autoregressive model accounting for latent global supply and demand shocks. We identify country-specific structural shocks via informative prior distributions based on a standard theoretical multi-country open economy model.
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