Aktuelle Trends: IWH-Konjunkturbarometer Ostdeutschland: Kräftiges Produktionswachstum hält bis Jahresende an
Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2006
Abstract
Die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft hat auch im dritten Vierteljahr Anschluß an den konjunkturellen Aufschwung in Deutschland gehalten. Der Zuwachs des Bruttoinlandsprodukts lag geringfügig über der gesamtdeutschen Rate. Den stärksten Beitrag leistete – wie so oft in den vergangenen Jahren – das Verarbeitende Gewerbe nach Überwindung der Wachstumsdelle im Frühjahr. Im Baugewerbe stieg die Wertschöpfung dank der hohen Nachfrage der Investoren an baulichen Anlagen und Wohnbauten in diesem Jahr das zweite Mal in Folge, es trug damit erneut zum Wachstum bei. Davon profitierte auch der Bereich Steine und Erden. Insgesamt hat der Auftrieb im Produzierenden Gewerbe auf die Unternehmensdienstleister übergegriffen. Allerdings legte deren Wertschöpfung nur geringfügig stärker als davor zu. Kräftige Zuwächse kamen dagegen aus dem Handel und dem Gastgewerbe. Der Aufschwung im Gastgewerbe ebbte jedoch mit dem Ende der Fußballweltmeisterschaft wieder ab.
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14.12.2006 • 39/2006
IWH-Konjunkturbarometer Ostdeutschland: Kräftiges Produktionswachstum hält bis Jahresende an
Die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft hat auch im dritten Vierteljahr Anschluß an den konjunkturellen Aufschwung in Deutschland gehalten. Der Zuwachs des Bruttoinlandsprodukts lag geringfügig über der gesamtdeutschen Rate. Den stärksten Beitrag leistete – wie so oft in den vergangenen Jahren – das Verarbeitende Gewerbe nach Überwindung der Wachstumsdelle im Frühjahr. Im Baugewerbe stieg die Wertschöpfung dank der hohen Nachfrage der Investoren an baulichen Anlagen und Wohnbauten in diesem Jahr das zweite Mal in Folge, es trug damit erneut zum Wachstum bei.
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The relationship between unemployment and output in post-communist countries
Hubert Gabrisch, Herbert Buscher
Post-Communist Economies,
2006
Abstract
Unemployment is still disappointingly high in most Central and East European countries, and might be a reflection of the ongoing adjustment to institutional shocks resulting from systemic transition, or it may be caused by high labour market rigidity, or aggregate demand that is too weak. In this paper we have investigated the dynamics of unemployment and output in those eight post-communist countries, which entered the EU in 2004. We used a model related to Okun’s Law; i.e. the first differences in unemployment rates were regressed on GDP growth rates. We estimated country and panel regressions with instrument variables (TSLS) and applied a few tests to the data and regression results. We assume transition of labour markets to be accomplished when a robust relationship exists between unemployment rate changes and GDP growth. Moreover, the estimated coefficients contain information about labour market rigidity and unemployment thresholds of output growth. Our results suggest that the transition of labour markets can be regarded as completed since unemployment responds to output changes and not to a changing institutional environment that destroys jobs in the state sector. The regression coefficients have demonstrated that a high trend rate of productivity and a high unemployment intensity of output growth have been occurring since 1998. Therefore, we conclude that labour market rigidities do not play an important role in explaining high unemployment rates. However, GDP growth is dominated by productivity progress and the employment-relevant component of aggregate demand is too low to reduce the high level of unemployment substantially.
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Money and Credit Market Integration in an enlarging Euro Zone: Methodological Issues
Johannes Stephan, Jens Hölscher
European Economic Policies - Alteratives to Orthodox Analysis and Policy Concepts,
2006
Abstract
“The chapter discusses methodological issues of money and credit market integration within the context of an enlarging Euro area. Common methods of interest parity tests are rejected in favour of a comparison of nominal interest rates. Hölscher and Stephan find that from an institutional point of view the new EU member countries look under-banked, whereas interest rates are converging. As policy implication the paper argues for a Euro adoption of the new EU members rather sooner than later.“
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Unternehmensbewertung, Rating und Risikobewältigung
Ulrich Blum, Werner Gleißner
Wissenschaftliche Zeitschrift der Technischen Universität Dresden,
2006
Abstract
Wir untersuchen, wie Unternehmer durch den besseren Umgang mit Risiken die Stabilität ihres Unternehmens verbessern können. Dies gelingt durch eine direkte Verzahnung der Risikobewältigung mit dem Rating, also der Bewertung der Fähigkeit, künftige Zahlungsverpflichtungen zu erfüllen. Dabei werden zentrale Elemente des Ratings vor dem Hintergrund des Risikomanagements vorgetragen. Neben der Ratingnote wird damit der risikobedingte Eigenkapitalbedarf zum zentralen Risikomaß. Unternehmer müssen vor diesem Hintergrund abwägen zwischen der kostentreibenden Verbesserung des Ratings und den dafür winkenden Erträgen. Die Risikobewältigung stellt eine Möglichkeit der Unternehmenswertsteigerung durch Risikomanagement dar. Die Risikoaggregation ist dabei das Mittel, das Informationen des Risikomanagements nutzt und zu einem zentralen, aussagefähigen Wertmaßstab verdichtet.
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Are Botswana and Mozambique ready for CMA enlargement?
Tobias Knedlik
Botswana Journal of Economics,
No. 3,
2006
Abstract
The paper elaborates on the appropriateness of a potentially enlarged Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa including Botswana and Mozambique. The theory of optimum currency areas including some extensions by accounting for costs of non-integration and considering the external relations of currency areas are presented. Various indicators such as the structure of the economies, interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rates, factor mobility and trading partners are observed empirically. The paper concludes that current changes in the exchange rate policy of Botswana are expected to lead to increasing, though already high, convergence with CMA countries. Botswana is therefore an appropriate candidate for CMA enlargement. Mozambique is converging towards South Africa but still remains on a lower level. Taking into account the costs of non-integration, however, the target of integration should be formulated for the medium term.
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Original Sin - Analysing Its Mechanics and a proposed Remedy in a Simple Macroeconomic Model
Axel Lindner
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2006
Abstract
This paper analyses the problem of “original sin“ (the fact that the currency of an emerging market economy usually cannot be used to borrow abroad) in a simple thirdgeneration model of currency crises. The approach differs from alternative frameworks by explicitly modeling the price setting behavior of firms if prices are sticky and the future exchange rate is uncertain. Monetary policy optimally trades off effects on price competitiveness and on debt burdens of firms. It is shown that the proposal by Eichengreen and Hausmann of creating an artificial basket currency as denominator of debt is attractive as a provision against contagion.
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Determinants of employment - the macroeconomic view
Christian Dreger, Heinz P. Galler, Ulrich (eds) Walwai
Schriften des IWH,
No. 22,
2005
Abstract
The weak performance of the German labour market over the past years has led to a significant unemployment problem. Currently, on average 4.5 mio. people are without a job contract, and a large part of them are long-term unemployed. A longer period of unemployment reduces their employability and aggravates the problem of social exclusion.
The factors driving the evolution of employment have been recently discussed on the workshop Determinanten der Beschäftigung – die makroökonomische Sicht organized jointly by the IAB, Nuremberg, and the IWH, Halle. The present volume contains the papers and proceedings to the policy oriented workshop held in November 2004, 15-16th. The main focus of the contributions is twofold. First, macroeconomic conditions to stimulate output and employment are considered. Second, the impacts of the increasing tax wedge between labour costs and the take home pay are emphasized. In particular, the role of the contributions to the social security system is investigated.
In his introductory address, Ulrich Walwei (IAB) links the unemployment experience to the modest path of economic growth in Germany. In addition, the low employment intensity of GDP growth and the temporary standstill of the convergence process of the East German economy have contributed to the weak labour market performance. In his analysis, Gebhard Flaig (ifo Institute, München) stresses the importance of relative factor price developments. A higher rate of wage growth leads to a decrease of the employment intensity of production, and correspondingly to an increase of the threshold of employment. Christian Dreger (IWH) discusses the relevance of labour market institutions like employment protection legislation and the structure of the wage bargaining process on the labour market outcome. Compared to the current setting, policies should try to introduce more flexibility in labour markets to improve the employment record. The impact of interest rate shocks on production is examined by the paper of Boris Hofmann (Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt). According to the empirical evidence, monetary policy cannot explain the modest economic performance in Germany. György Barabas and Roland Döhrn (RWI Essen) have simulated the effects of a world trade shock on output and employment. The relationships have been fairly stable over the past years, even in light of the increasing globalization. Income and employment effects of the German tax reform in 2000 are discussed by Peter Haan and Viktor Steiner (DIW Berlin). On the base of a microsimulation model, household gains are determined. Also, a positive relationship between wages and labour supply can be established. Michael Feil und Gerd Zika (IAB) have examined the employment effects of a reduction of the contribution rates to the social security system. To obtain robust results, the analysis is done under alternative financing scenarios and with different macroeconometric models. The impacts of allowances of social security contributions on the incentives to work are discussed by Wolfgang Meister and Wolfgang Ochel (ifo München). According to their study, willingness to work is expected to increase especially at the lower end of the income distribution. The implied loss of contributions could be financed by higher taxes.
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Stochastische Unternehmensmodelle als Kern innovativer Ratingsysteme
Ulrich Blum, Werner Gleißner, Frank Leibbrand
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2005
Abstract
Auf der Grundlage einer Stichprobe von 105 sächsischen Unternehmen wird deren Zukunftsfähigkeit mit Hilfe einer neuen Ratingtechnologie analysiert. Diese basiert – neben klassischen Analysewerkzeugen – auf einer direkten Einbeziehung von Risikogesichtspunkten und einer stochastischen Unternehmensmodellierung. Die Ergebnisse belegen, daß das Verfahren gegenüber den bisherigen Ansätzen zusätzlichen und ökonomisch bedeutsamen Erklärungsgehalt besitzt. Über den Aspekt Basel-II hinaus ist es insbesondere möglich, langfristige strategisch angelegte Entwicklungsprozesse nachzuzeichnen.
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Business Cycles and FDI: Evidence from German Sectoral Data
Claudia M. Buch, A. Lipponer
Review of World Economics,
No. 4,
2005
Abstract
Globalization has affected business cycle developments in OECD countries and has increased activities of firms across national borders. This paper analyzes whether these two developments are linked. We use a new firm-level data set on the foreign activities of German firms to test whether foreign activities are affected by business cycle developments. We aggregate the data by the sector of the reporting firm, the sector of the foreign affiliate, and the host country. Data are annual and cover the period 1989–2002. We find that German outward FDI increases in response to positive cyclical developments abroad and in response to a real depreciation of the domestic currency.
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