The Minimum Wage Effects on Skilled Crafts Sector in Saxony-Anhalt
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Birgit Schultz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 31,
2017
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of the minimum wage introduction in Germany in 2015 on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt. Using novel survey data on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt, we examine three questions: (1) How many employees are affected by the minimum wage introduction in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony- Anhalt? (2) What are the effects of the minimum wage introduction? (3) How have firms reacted to wage increase? We find that about 8% of all employees in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt are directly affected by the minimum wage introduction. A difference-in-difference estimation reveals no significant employment effects of the minimum wage introduction. We test for alternative adjustment strategies and observe a significant increase of output prices.
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Employment Effects of Introducing a Minimum Wage: The Case of Germany
Oliver Holtemöller, Felix Pohle
Abstract
This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the employment effects of minimum wages. We analysed the introduction of a statutory minimum wage in Germany in 2015 exploiting cross-sectional variation of the minimum wage affectedness. We construct two variables that measure the affectedness for approximately 300 state-industry combinations based on aggregate monthly income data. The estimation strategy consists of two steps. We test for (unidentified) structural breaks in a model with cross-section specific trends to control for state-industry specific developments prior to 2015. In a second step, we test whether the trend deviations are correlated with the minimum wage affectedness. To identify the minimum wage effect on employment, we assume that the minimum wage introduction is exogenous. Our results point towards a negative effect on marginal employment and a positive effect on socially insured employment. Furthermore, we analyse if the increase in socially insured employment is systematically related to the reduction of marginal employment but do not detect evidence.
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20.04.2017 • 21/2017
IWH Policy Talk: „Gewissenlose Kapitalisten oder Motor der Zukunft? Private Equity in Europa“
Das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) lädt am Montag, dem 24. April 2017 um 17:00 Uhr zu seinem zweiten IWH Policy Talk zum Thema „Gewissenlose Kapitalisten oder Motor der Zukunft? Private Equity in Europa“ mit Peter Cornelius von AlpInvest in den Konferenzsaal des Instituts ein.
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Complex-task Biased Technological Change and the Labor Market
Colin Caines, Florian Hoffmann, Gueorgui Kambourov
Review of Economic Dynamics,
April
2017
Abstract
In this paper we study the relationship between task complexity and the occupational wage- and employment structure. Complex tasks are defined as those requiring higher-order skills, such as the ability to abstract, solve problems, make decisions, or communicate effectively. We measure the task complexity of an occupation by performing Principal Component Analysis on a broad set of occupational descriptors in the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) data. We establish four main empirical facts for the U.S. over the 1980–2005 time period that are robust to the inclusion of a detailed set of controls, subsamples, and levels of aggregation: (1) There is a positive relationship across occupations between task complexity and wages and wage growth; (2) Conditional on task complexity, routine-intensity of an occupation is not a significant predictor of wage growth and wage levels; (3) Labor has reallocated from less complex to more complex occupations over time; (4) Within groups of occupations with similar task complexity labor has reallocated to non-routine occupations over time. We then formulate a model of Complex-Task Biased Technological Change with heterogeneous skills and show analytically that it can rationalize these facts. We conclude that workers in non-routine occupations with low ability of solving complex tasks are not shielded from the labor market effects of automatization.
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Debt Brake Will Intensify Bracket Creep Problem
Martin Altemeyer-Bartscher, Götz Zeddies
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 2,
2017
Abstract
Geringfügige Steuermehrbelastungen, die auf die kalte Progression bei der Einkommensteuer zurückzuführen sind, werden vom Steuerzahler kaum wahrgenommen. Überschreiten die kumulierten Mehrbelastungen allerdings nach einigen Jahren eine kritische Schwelle, entsteht gewöhnlich ein politischer Druck für die Korrektur der kalten Progression. Im Unterschied zu konjunkturbedingten Einnahmeschwankungen wird dieser Einnahmezyklus in den Regelungen zur Schuldenbremse nicht berücksichtigt. Eine Indexierung des Steuertarifs, d. h. eine automatische Korrektur der kalten Progression, könnte derartige Schwankungen verhindern.
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The Drivers of Revenue Productivity: a New Decomposition Analysis with Firm-level Data
Filippo di Mauro, Giordano Mion, Daniel Stöhlker
ECB Working Paper,
No. 2014,
2017
Abstract
This paper aims to derive a methodology to decompose aggregate revenue TFP changes over time into four different components – namely physical TFP, mark-ups, quality and production scale. The new methodology is applied to a panel of EU countries and manufacturing industries over the period 2006-2012. In summary, patterns of measured revenue productivity have been broadly similar across EU countries, most notably when we group them into stressed (Italy, Spain and Slovenia) and non-stressed countries (Belgium, Finland, France and Germany). In particular, measured revenue productivity drops for both groups by about 6 percent during the recent crisis. More specifically, for both stressed and non-stressed countries the drop in revenue productivity was accompanied by a substantial dip in the proxy we use for TFP in quantity terms, as well as by a strong reduction in mark-ups.
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Kalte Progression – Gefahr für die Stabilität der Schuldenbremse
Götz Zeddies
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2016
Abstract
Geringfügige Steuermehrbelastungen, die auf die kalte Progression bei der Einkommensteuer zurückzuführen sind, werden vom Steuerzahler kaum wahrgenommen und bieten dem deutschen Staat daher die Möglichkeit für schleichende Steuererhöhungen. Überschreiten die kumulierten Mehrbelastungen allerdings nach einigen Jahren eine kritische Schwelle, entsteht gewöhnlich ein politischer Druck für die Korrektur der kalten Progression. Wie im Beitrag gezeigt wird, kann die kalte Progression somit Auslöser eines Einnahmezyklus sein. Im Unterschied zu konjunkturbedingten Einnahmeschwankungen findet dieser Einnahmezyklus in den Regelungen zur Schuldenbremse keine Berücksichtigung. Ob die Regierungen eigenverantwortlich einen ausreichenden Sicherheitsabstand zur maximal zulässigen Nettokreditaufnahme einhalten, um diesen Schwankungen vorzubeugen, ist fraglich. Eine Indexierung des Steuertarifs, die eine automatische Korrektur der kalten Progression vorsieht, könnte derartige Schwankungen verhindern und für ein weniger volatiles Einkommensteueraufkommen sorgen.
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To Separate or not to Separate Investment from Commercial Banking? An Empirical Analysis of Attention Distortion under Multiple Tasks
Reint E. Gropp, K. Park
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 2,
2016
Abstract
In the wake of the 2008/2009 financial crisis, a number of policy reports (Vickers, Liikanen, Volcker) proposed to separate investment banking from commercial banking to increase financial stability. This paper empirically examines one theoretical justification for these proposals, namely attention distortion under multiple tasks as in Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991). Universal banks can be viewed as combining two different tasks (investment banking and commercial banking) in the same organization. We estimate pay-performance sensitivities for different segments within universal banks and for pure investment and commercial banks. We show that the pay-performance sensitivity is higher in investment banking than in commercial banking, no matter whether it is organized as part of a universal bank or in a separate institution. Next, the paper shows that relative pay-performance sensitivities of investment and commercial banking are negatively related to the quality of the loan portfolio in universal banks. Depending on the specification, we obtain a reduction in problem loans when investment banking is removed from commercial banks of up to 12 percent. We interpret the evidence to imply that the higher pay-performance sensitivity in investment banking directs the attention of managers away from commercial banking within universal banks, consistent with Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991). Separation of investment banking and commercial banking may indeed be associated with a reduction in risk in commercial banking.
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Burdett–Mortensen Model of on-the-Job Search with Two Sectors
Florian Hoffmann, Shouyong Shi
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Special Issue in Honor of Dale Mortensen
2016
Abstract
The focus of this paper is on the steady state of a two-sector economy with undirected search where employed and unemployed workers can search for jobs, both within a sector and between the sectors. As in the one-sector model, on-the-job search generates wage dispersion among homogeneous workers. The analysis of the two-sector model uncovers a property called constant tension that is responsible for analytical tractability. We characterize the steady state in all cases with constant tension. When time discounting vanishes, constant tension yields the endogenous separation rate in each sector as a linear function of the present value for a worker. The one-sector economy automatically satisfies constant tension, in which case the linear separation rate implies that equilibrium offers of the worker value are uniformly distributed. Constant tension also has strong predictions for worker transitions and value/wage dispersion, both within a sector and between the two sectors. When constant tension does not hold, we compute the steady state numerically and illustrate its properties.
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Zu den Auswirkungen der Migration auf den ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2015
Abstract
Die starken Migrationsprozesse beeinflussen zunehmend auch den ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt. Die Zuwachsraten bei der Zahl der Beschäftigten, den Arbeitslosen sowie den Leistungsbeziehern nach SGB II vor allem aus den mittel- und osteuropäischen Staaten mit Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit, den von der europäischen Schulden- und Vertrauenskrise besonders schwer betroffenen Ländern Griechenland, Italien, Portugal und Spanien sowie den Asylherkunftsländern sind gegenwärtig sehr hoch und liegen in der gleichen Größenordnung wie in Westdeutschland. Die Anteile von Migranten an der Bevölkerung und an relevanten Arbeitsmarktgrößen sind allerdings in Ostdeutschland erheblich niedriger als in Westdeutschland.
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