EFN Report Autumn 2015: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2015 and 2016
European Forecasting Network Reports,
Nr. 4,
2015
Abstract
For the end of this year and for 2016, chances are good that production in advanced economies will continue to expand a bit faster than at trend rates, while growth dynamics in emerging markets economies will not strengthen or even continue to decrease.
Since autumn 2014, production in the euro area expands at an annualized rate of about 1.5%. The recovery appears to be broad based, with contributions from private consumption, exports, and investment into fixed capital, although it fell back in the second quarter after a strong increase at the beginning of the year. From a regional perspective, the recovery is as well quite broad based: production is expanding in almost every country, surprisingly and according to official data, including Greece.
Structural impediments still limit the ability of the euro area economy to grow strongly: firms and, in particular, private households are only slowly reducing their heavy debt burdens.
According to our forecasts, the euro area GDP will grow by 1.6% in 2015 and by 1.9% in 2016. The high increase in the number of refugees in 2015 will, in principle, positively affect private as well as public consumption, but the effect should be below 0.1 percentage points relative to GDP.
Our inflation forecast for 2015 is 0.1%. For 2016, we expect that inflation will increase to 1.3%, which is still below the ECB’s target of 2%.
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Metropolregionen als Schlüssel zum wirtschaftlichen Erfolg?: 5. „Halle Forum“ des IWH und der ARL am 11./12. Dezember 2014
A. Förtsch, Albrecht Kauffmann, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Nachrichten der ARL,
Nr. 2,
2015
Abstract
Seit 2006 findet am Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in Halle an der Saale alle zwei Jahre das „Halle Forum on Urban Economic Growth“ statt. Ziel dieser Veranstaltungsreihe ist es, ein internationales und interdisziplinäres Forum für den Austausch aktueller Forschungsergebnisse zu Strategien und Verläufen der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung von Städten zu bieten, mit einem Fokus auf altindustrielle Regionen und post-sozialistische Länder. Das nunmehr bereits fünfte „Halle Forum“ befasste sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der „richtigen“ Governance von Metropolregionen und den wirtschaftlichen Effekten von verschiedenen Formen der metropolitanen Governance. Zusätzlich wurden weitere zentrale Zukunftsthemen der Stadtentwicklung aufgegriffen.
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Die Institutionalisierung von Metropolregionen: Schlüssel zum wirtschaftlichen Erfolg von Städten? – Ein Bericht über das „5th Halle Forum on Urban Economic Growth“
A. Förtsch, Albrecht Kauffmann, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 2,
2015
Abstract
Seit den 1990er Jahren wird speziell in Deutschland versucht, mit Hilfe einer verstärkten Kooperation zwischen den wichtigsten Oberzentren und den Kommunen aus deren jeweiligem Umland so genannte „Metropolregionen“ zu etablieren. Damit werden die Ziele verfolgt, die internationale Sichtbarkeit der größten deutschen Städte zu verbessern und durch eine Bündelung der in ihnen sowie ihrem Umland vorhandenen Ressourcen und Kompetenzen zu einer Erhöhung der stadtregionalen Wirtschaftsleistung beizutragen. Es stellen sich allerdings die Fragen, ob diese Ziele tatsächlich erreicht werden, welche Hürden sich bei der Zielerreichung ergeben und wie diese Hürden ggf. überwunden werden können. Diese Fragen standen im Mittelpunkt des fünften „Halle Forum on Urban Economic Growth“, das am 11. und 12. Dezember 2014 in Kooperation mit der Akademie für Raumforschung und Landesplanung (ARL) – Leibniz-Forum für Raumwissenschaften am IWH durchgeführt wurde.
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Do Manufacturing Firms Benefit from Services FDI? – Evidence from Six New EU Member States
J. Damijan, Crt Kostevc, Philipp Marek, Matija Rojec
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 5,
2015
Abstract
This paper focuses on the effect of foreign presence in the services sector on the productivity growth of downstream customers in the manufacturing sector in six EU new member countries in the course of their accession to the European Union. For this purpose, the analysis combines firm-level information, data on economic structures and annual national input-output tables. The findings suggest that services FDI may enhance productivity of manufacturing firms in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries through vertical forward spillovers, and thereby contribute to their competitiveness. The consideration of firm characteristics shows that the magnitude of spillover effects depends on size, ownership structure, and initial productivity level of downstream firms as well as on the diverging technological intensity across sector on the supply and demand side. The results suggest that services FDI foster productivity of domestic rather than foreign controlled firms in the host economy. For the period between 2003 and 2008, the findings suggest that the increasing share of services provided by foreign affiliates enhanced the productivity growth of domestic firms in manufacturing by 0.16%. Furthermore, the firms’ absorptive capability and the size reduce the spillover effect of services FDI on the productivity of manufacturing firms. A sectoral distinction shows that firms at the end of the value chain experience a larger productivity growth through services FDI, whereas the aggregate positive effect seems to be driven by FDI in energy supply. This does not hold for science-based industries, which are spurred by foreign presence in knowledge-intensive business services.
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Financial Integration, Housing, and Economic Volatility
Elena Loutskina, Philip E. Strahan
Journal of Financial Economics,
Nr. 1,
2015
Abstract
The Great Recession illustrates the sensitivity of the economy to housing. This paper shows that financial integration, fostered by securitization and nationwide branching, amplified the positive effect of housing price shocks on the economy during the 1994–2006 period. We exploit variation in credit supply subsidies across local markets from government-sponsored enterprises to measure housing price changes unrelated to fundamentals. Using this instrument, we find that house price shocks spur economic growth. The effect is larger in localities more financially integrated, through both secondary loan market and bank branch networks. Financial integration thus raised the effect of collateral shocks on local economies, increasing economic volatility.
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The Development of Cities and Municipalities in Central and Eastern Europe: Introduction for a Special Issue of 'Urban Research and Practice'
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Albrecht Kauffmann
Urban Research & Practice, Vol. 7 (3),
Nr. 3,
2014
Abstract
Since the 1990s, local governments in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have been confronted by completely new structures and developments. This came after more than 40 years (or even longer in the case of the former Soviet Union) under a socialist regime and behind an iron curtain which isolated them from the non-socialist world. A lack of resources had led to an underinvestment in the refurbishment of older buildings, while relatively cheap ‘prefabricated’ housing had been built, not only in the outskirts of cities, but also within city centres. A lack of resources had also resulted in the fact that the socialist regimes were generally unable to replace old buildings with ‘modern’ ones; hence, there is a very rich heritage of historical monuments in many of these cities today. The centrally planned economies and the development of urban structures (including the shifts of population between cities and regions) were determined by ideology, political rationality and the integration of all CEE countries into the production schemes of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance and its division of labour by location. The sudden introduction of a market economy, private property, democratic rules, local autonomy for cities and municipalities and access to the global economy and society may be seen as a kind of ‘natural experiment’. How would these new conditions shape the national systems of cities and municipalities? Which cities would shrink and which would grow? How would the relationship between core cities and their surrounding municipalities develop? And what would happen within these cities and with their built environment?
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Forecast Dispersion, Dissenting Votes, and Monetary Policy Preferences of FOMC Members: The Role of Individual Career Characteristics and Political Aspects
Stefan Eichler, Tom Lähner
Public Choice,
Nr. 3,
2014
Abstract
Using data from 1992 to 2001, we study the impact of members’ economic forecasts on the probability of casting dissenting votes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Employing standard ordered probit techniques, we find that higher individual inflation and real GDP growth forecasts (relative to the committee’s median) significantly increase the probability of dissenting in favor of tighter monetary policy, whereas higher individual unemployment rate forecasts significantly decrease it. Using interaction models, we find that FOMC members with longer careers in government, industry, academia, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), or on the staff of the Board of Governors are more focused on output stabilization, while FOMC members with longer careers in the financial sector or on the staffs of regional Federal Reserve Banks are more focused on inflation stabilization. We also find evidence that politics matters, with Republican appointees being much more focused on inflation stabilization than Democratic appointees. Moreover, during the entire Clinton administration ‘natural’ monetary policy preferences of Bank presidents and Board members for inflation and output stabilization were more pronounced than under periods covering the administrations of both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, respectively.
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