13.12.2018 • 21/2018
Economic activity in the world and in Germany is losing momentum
In the second half of 2018, the upturn of the German economy has stalled. Production of the automotive industry declined because of delays in switching production to WLTP compliant cars. Irrespectively of this, the German export business has been weakening since the beginning of the year, since the global economy, burdened by the political uncertainties surrounding trade conflicts, the impending Brexit and the conflict over the Italian budget, was unable to keep up with the high momentum of 2017. “It is to be expected that the less benign external environment will not only dampen exports, but will also impact on companies’ investment and hiring decisions”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.5% in 2018 and by 1.4% in 2019, which is roughly equal to the growth rate of economic capacity in Germany.
Oliver Holtemöller
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02.10.2018 • 20/2018
Presseeinladung zum Workshop: „Regionale Ungleichheit: Gleichwertige Lebensverhältnisse in Deutschland im Fokus“ am 8. und 9. Oktober 2018 in Halle (Saale)
Ungleichheit in Deutschland: Was Wirtschaftskraft und Bevölkerungsentwicklung angeht, gibt es erhebliche Unterschiede zwischen Ost und West, zwischen Stadt und Land, zwischen Regionen mit alten Industrien und solchen mit vielen jungen Start-ups. Welche Konsequenzen sich aus diesen Unterschieden ergeben und wie die Politik darauf reagieren kann, diskutiert eine gemeinsame Veranstaltung des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) und des Leibniz-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH).
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27.09.2018 • 19/2018
Upswing in East Germany has slowed, but continues – implications of the joint forecast of the German economic research institutes in autumn 2018 and of official data for the Eastern German economy in the first half of 2018
The German institutes forecast a slowdown in the cyclical upswing in Germany. Foreign demand, in particular from other euro area countries, has eased, and capacity constraints make it increasingly difficult for companies to expand production. Both arguments apply to East Germany as well: high vacancy rates indicate that labour may be even scarcer than in the West despite higher unemployment. Moreover, a particularly high proportion of East German exports go to other European countries. Important drivers of growth in the East, however, are still intact: unlike the manufacturing sector, services have been rising a bit faster in recent years in East Germany than in the West. Providers of services benefit from significantly rising disposable incomes of private households, as employment is currently expanding healthily and at only a slightly slower pace than in West Germany, despite poorer demographic conditions. Retirement pensions in East Germany have also been increased considerably.
Oliver Holtemöller
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27.09.2018 • 18/2018
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2018: Upturn Loses Momentum
Berlin, 27 September – Germany’s leading economics research institutes have downwardly revised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019. They now expect economic output to increase by 1.7 percent in 2018, and not 2.2 percent as forecast in spring. They also scaled back their 2019 forecast slightly from 2.0 to 1.9 percent. These are the results of the Joint Economic Forecast for autumn 2018 that will be presented in Berlin on Thursday.
Oliver Holtemöller
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06.09.2018 • 17/2018
The Cyclical upswing in Germany continues, in spite of foreign demand losing momentum
In autumn 2018, the global economy continues to expand quite strongly. Whereas the cyclical upswing in the USA has gained even more strength, the economy in the Euro area has weakened somewhat. To a lesser extent, this also applies to the German economy. “According to this forecast, the growth rate of German real gross domestic product will be 1.8% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. The East German economy will expand by 1.5% this year and by 1.4% in 2019”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at IWH.
Oliver Holtemöller
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31.07.2018 • 16/2018
Fairness pays off
When companies arbitrarily cut their wages, the motivation and productivity of the employees decrease – this is clear. Less obvious, however: employees also become less productive even if it is their colleagues who are treated unfairly and not them. This was confirmed by a research group led by Sabrina Jeworrek at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association.
Sabrina Jeworrek
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22.06.2018 • 15/2018
Presseeinladung zum Workshop: „Abgehängte Regionen – Probleme und Gegenstrategien“ am 28. Juni 2018 in Halle (Saale)
Knapp drei Jahrzehnte nach der deutschen Vereinigung unterscheiden sich die Lebensverhältnisse innerhalb Deutschlands stark, auch zwischen Stadt und Land. Wie Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft darauf reagieren sollten, diskutiert eine Veranstaltung der Expertenplattform „Demographischer Wandel in Sachsen-Anhalt“ in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH).
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14.06.2018 • 14/2018
Current economic outlook: German upswing is slowing down
In summer 2018, the world economy is still rather strong. Dynamics in the euro area, however, have declined markedly, and the cyclical upswing in Germany has almost stalled, due to weaker exports. “Gross domestic product will, according to this forecast, expand by 1.7% in 2018 and by 1.6% in 2019. Growth in East Germany will be about as strong as in Germany as a whole”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at IWH.
Oliver Holtemöller
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28.05.2018 • 13/2018
Einladung zum Workshop „Europäische Wirtschaft stärken – Forschungsergebnisse aus dem Leibniz-Forschungsverbund ‚Krisen einer globalisierten Welt‘“
Im Rahmen des Leibniz-Forschungsverbunds „Krisen einer globalisierten Welt“ organisiert das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) gemeinsam mit dem ZEW, Zentrum für europäische Wirtschaftsforschung sowie dem Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi) einen Workshop, der sich den Fragen zur Zukunft des internationalen Handels und der europäischen Integration widmet.
Oliver Holtemöller
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25.05.2018 • 12/2018
The resistance of employers against works councils
Germany votes. However, this time it’s not about the politicians – instead it’s about the works councils. It’s certainly worthwhile: Many studies have shown that works councils all in all have a positive impact on productivity, wages and profits. Despite this, employers are sometimes very resistant to the idea of staff involvement in company decision-making. A common argument is that such participation limits managerial freedom and that employers are willing to sacrifice the benefits of staff participation in return for greater room for manoeuvre. Steffen Müller from the Halle Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association now provides an alternative economic justification for employer resistance: Employer associations are dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, and in these works councils – in contrast to large firms – often produce no positive economic benefits.
Steffen Müller
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