Brown Bag Seminar
Brown Bag Seminar Financial Markets Department The seminar series "Brown Bag Seminar" was offered on a regular basis by members of the Financial Markets department and their…
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Konjunktur aktuell: Belebung in Dienstleistungsbranchen, aber zunächst weiter schwache Industriekonjunktur
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 2,
2023
Abstract
Im Sommer 2023 deuten Stimmungsindikatoren auf einen weltweiten Aufschwung in den Dienstleistungsbranchen, die Konjunktur im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe bleibt aber schwach. Hohe Inflation und gestiegene Leitzinsen dämpfen die Konjunktur in den meisten Weltregionen. In Europa belasten auch im langjährigen Vergleich hohe Energiepreise. Insgesamt bleibt die Dynamik der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2023 verhalten. Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird in mäßigem Tempo expandieren, denn mit sinkender Inflation und erhöhter Lohndynamik wird der private Konsum wieder zulegen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte 2023 um 0,3% zurückgehen, für das kommende Jahr ist ein Zuwachs von 1,7% prognostiziert. Für 2023 ist mit einer Inflationsrate von 6,1% und für 2024 mit 2,7% zu rechnen.
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Minimum Wages, Productivity, and Reallocation
Mirja Hälbig, Matthias Mertens, Steffen Müller
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 8,
2023
Abstract
We study the productivity effect of the German national minimum wage combining administrative firm datasets. We analyze firm- and market-level effects, considering output price changes, factor substitution, firm entry and exit, labor reallocation, and short- versus long-run effects. We document higher firm productivity even net of output price increases. Productivity gains are persistent in manufacturing and service sectors. The minimum wage also increased manufacturing productivity at the aggregate level. Neither firm entry and exit nor other forms of employment reallocation between firms contributed to these gains. Instead, aggregate productivity gains from the minimum wage solely stem from within-firm productivity improvements.
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Aktuelle Trends: Hohe Umsätze in gasintensiven Industrien – aber niedrige Produktion
Oliver Holtemöller
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2022
Abstract
Die gasintensiven Wirtschaftszweige wie die Chemie oder die Herstellung von Holz- und Papierwaren konnten ihre Umsätze im Jahr 2022 deutlich ausweiten. Zugleich haben sie aber die Produktion erheblich reduziert.
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21.06.2022 • 14/2022
War drives up energy prices ‒ High inflation weighs on economy
While the lifting of nationwide coronavirus regulations boosts many service sectors such as the hospitality industry, supply bottlenecks are likely to weigh on the manufacturing sector throughout the summer and high inflation will dampen private consumption. Gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany is expected to decline slightly in the second quarter of 2022. The situation in the manufacturing sector is expected to ease towards the end of the year. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that GDP will increase by 1.5% in 2022, following an increase by 2.9% in 2021. In East Germany, GDP will increase by 1%.
Oliver Holtemöller
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26.04.2022 • 10/2022
Regional effects of a recession in Germany triggered by an import stop for Russian gas
A halt in Russian gas deliveries would lead to a recession in the German economy. Not all regions would be equally affected: The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects a significantly stronger slump in economic output in regions where the manufacturing sector has a large weight than elsewhere.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Micro-mechanisms behind Declining Labor Shares: Rising Market Power and Changing Modes of Production
Matthias Mertens
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
March
2022
Abstract
I derive a micro-founded framework showing how rising firm market power on product and labor markets and falling aggregate labor output elasticities provide three competing explanations for falling labor shares. I apply my framework to 20 years of German manufacturing sector micro data containing firm-specific price information to study these three distinct drivers of declining labor shares. I document a severe increase in firms’ labor market power, whereas firms’ product market power stayed comparably low. Changes in firm market power and a falling aggregate labor output elasticity each account for one half of the decline in labor's share.
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14.10.2021 • 26/2021
East German economy less affected by supply bottlenecks than German economy as a whole, but lower vaccination rates pose risks – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2021 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Federal Statisti
Supply bottlenecks affect production in the manufacturing sector in East Germany somewhat less than in Germany as a whole. With 1.8%, the increase in Gross Domestic Product in eastern Germany in 2021 therefore is likely to be lower than in Germany as a whole (2.4%); this gap is likely to enlarge in 2022, when supply bottlenecks hamper less (East Germany: 3.6%, Germany 4.8%).
Oliver Holtemöller
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