Structural Stability of the Research & Development Sector in European Economies Despite the Economic Crisis
Jutta Günther, Maria Kristalova, Udo Ludwig
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
No. 5,
2019
Abstract
When an external shock such as the economic crisis in 2008/2009 occurs, the interconnectedness of sectors can be affected. This paper investigates whether the R&D sector experienced changes in its sectoral integration through the recession. Based on an input-output analysis, it can be shown that the linkages of the R&D sector with other sectors remain stable. In some countries, the inter-sectoral integration becomes even stronger. Policy makers can be encouraged to use public R&D spending as a means of fiscal policy against an economic crisis.
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01.11.2019 • 23/2019
Presseeinladung zur Verleihung des Max-Planck-Humboldt-Forschungspreises und der Max-Planck-Humboldt-Medaille 2019 in Berlin, Akademie der Künste, 5. November 2019 um 17:00 Uhr mit anschließendem Empfang
Zum zweiten Mal wird der neugestaltete Max-Planck-Humboldt-Forschungspreis von der Max-Planck-Gesellschaft und der Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung in Berlin verliehen. Der diesjährige Träger des Preises ist Ufuk Akcigit von der Universität Chicago mit dem Thema: Warum besteht zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland weiterhin eine wirtschaftliche Kluft?
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02.10.2019 • 21/2019
Thanks to robust domestic demand, the impact of the manufacturing sector on East Germany is less severe than in the west – Implications of the Autumn 2019 Joint Economic Forecast and official regional data for the eastern German economy
In its autumn report, the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group states that the German economy has cooled further in the current year. The manufacturing sector is the main reason for the economic weakness. This affects the economy in East Germany as well.
Oliver Holtemöller
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02.10.2019 • 20/2019
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2019: Economy Cools Further – Industry in Recession
Berlin, October 2, 2019 – Germany’s leading economics research institutes have revised their economic forecast for Germany significantly downward. Whereas in the spring they still expected gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.8% in 2019, they now expect GDP growth to be only 0.5%. Reasons for the poor performance are the falling worldwide demand for capital goods – in the exporting of which the Germany economy is specialised – as well as political uncertainty and structural changes in the automotive industry. By contrast, monetary policy is shoring up macroeconomic expansion. For the coming year, the economic researchers have also reduced their forecast of GDP growth to 1.1%, having predicted 1.8% in the spring.
Oliver Holtemöller
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19.09.2019 • 19/2019
Long-term effects of privatisation in eastern Germany: award-winning US economist begins large-scale research project at the IWH
It is one of the most prestigious awards in the German scientific community: the Max Planck-Humboldt Research Award 2019 endowed with €1.5 million goes to Ufuk Akcigit, Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago. At the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), Akcigit aims to use innovative methods to investigate why the economy in eastern Germany is still lagging behind that in western Germany – and what role the privatisation process 30 years ago played in this.
Reint E. Gropp
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The Impact of Innovation and Innovation Subsidies on Economic Development in German Regions
Uwe Cantner, Eva Dettmann, Alexander Giebler, Jutta Günther, Maria Kristalova
Regional Studies,
No. 9,
2019
Abstract
Public innovation subsidies in a regional environment are expected to unfold a positive economic impact over time. The focus of this paper is on an assessment of the long-run impact of innovation and innovation subsidies in German regions. This is scrutinized by an estimation approach combining panel model and time-series characteristics and using regional data for the years 1980–2014. The results show that innovation and innovation subsidies in the long run have a positive impact on the economic development of regions in Germany. This supports a long-term strategy for regional and innovation policy.
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05.09.2019 • 18/2019
Downturn in Germany continues
Trade disputes are causing international trade in goods to decline this year. The manufacturing industry in Germany is particularly affected by this. However, a robust labour market is supporting the economy. According to IWH autumn economic forecast, German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 0.5% in 2019. At 1%, output growth in East Germany is likely to be significantly higher than in West Germany.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Bankruptcy Spillovers
Shai B. Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Xavier Giroud, Benjamin Iverson
Journal of Financial Economics,
No. 3,
2019
Abstract
How do different bankruptcy approaches affect the local economy? Using US Census microdata, we explore the spillover effects of reorganization and liquidation on geographically proximate firms. We exploit the random assignment of bankruptcy judges as a source of exogenous variation in the probability of liquidation. We find that employment declines substantially in the immediate neighborhood of the liquidated establishments, relative to reorganized establishments. The spillover effects are highly localized and concentrate in nontradable and service sectors, consistent with a reduction in local consumer traffic and a decline in knowledge spillovers between firms. The evidence highlights the externalities that bankruptcy design can impose on nonbankrupt firms.
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Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany
Christoph Schult, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract
In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6,300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040
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History, Microdata, and Endogenous Growth
Ufuk Akcigit, Tom Nicholas
Annual Review of Economics,
2019
Abstract
The study of economic growth is concerned with long-run changes, and therefore, historical data should be especially influential in informing the development of new theories. In this review, we draw on the recent literature to highlight areas in which study of history has played a particularly prominent role in improving our understanding of growth dynamics. Research at the intersection of historical data, theory, and empirics has the potential to reframe how we think about economic growth in much the same way that historical perspectives helped to shape the first generation of endogenous growth theories.
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