Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D? Evidence from US States
Viktor Slavtchev, Simon Wiederhold
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
No. 2,
2016
Abstract
Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini. This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation. In a theoretical model, we first show that a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private R&D. Using unique data on federal procurement in US states and performing panel fixed-effects estimations, we find support for the model's prediction of a positive R&D effect of the technological content of government procurement. Instrumental-variable estimations suggest a causal interpretation of our findings.
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Kommentar: Bleibt Sachsen-Anhalt abgehängt?
Oliver Holtemöller
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2016
Abstract
Das Hauptthema in den Medien ist zurzeit die Flüchtlingskrise. Im Jahr 2015 sind über eine Million Flüchtlinge nach Deutschland gekommen. Darüber hinaus gibt es weiterhin Zuwanderung aus ost- und südeuropäischen EU-Ländern nach Deutschland. Bei monatsgenauer Rechnung und unter Berücksichtigung von Fortzügen ergibt sich für das Jahr 2015 eine Nettozuwanderung von 900 000 Personen nach Deutschland. Ohne diese Zuwanderung würde die Bevölkerung im erwerbsfähigen Alter in Deutschland sinken.
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Transition to Clean Technology
Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, Douglas Hanley, William R. Kerr
Journal of Political Economy,
No. 1,
2016
Abstract
We develop an endogenous growth model in which clean and dirty technologies compete in production. Research can be directed to either technology. If dirty technologies are more advanced, the transition to clean technology can be difficult. Carbon taxes and research subsidies may encourage production and innovation in clean technologies, though the transition will typically be slow. We estimate the model using microdata from the US energy sector. We then characterize the optimal policy path that heavily relies on both subsidies and taxes. Finally, we evaluate various alternative policies. Relying only on carbon taxes or delaying intervention has significant welfare costs.
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Vierteljährliche Konjunkturberichterstattung für das Land Sachsen-Anhalt - Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Lage im 3. Quartal 2015 -
Brigitte Loose, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß
IWH Online,
No. 12,
2015
Abstract
Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in Sachsen-Anhalt ist nach den indikatorgestützten
Schätzungen des IWH im dritten Quartal des Jahres 2015 um 0,4% zurückgegangen, nachdem sie im Quartal zuvor kräftig zugelegt hatte. Damit blieb die Expansion im laufenden Quartal deutlich hinter der in Deutschland zurück.
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Unemployment in the Great Recession: A Comparison of Germany, Canada, and the United States
Florian Hoffmann, Thomas Lemieux
Journal of Labor Economics,
S1 Part 2
2016
Abstract
This paper looks at the surprisingly different labor market performance of the United States, Canada, Germany, and several other OECD countries during and after the Great Recession of 2008–9. A first important finding is that the large employment swings in the construction sector linked to the boom and bust in US housing markets is an important factor behind the different labor market performances of the three countries. We also find that cross-country differences among OECD countries are consistent with a conventional Okun relationship linking gross domestic product growth to employment performance.
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Electoral Credit Supply Cycles Among German Savings Banks
Reint E. Gropp, Vahid Saadi
IWH Online,
No. 11,
2015
Abstract
In this note we document political lending cycles for German savings banks. We find that savings banks on average increase supply of commercial loans by €7.6 million in the year of a local election in their respective county or municipality (Kommunalwahl). For all savings banks combined this amounts to €3.4 billion (0.4% of total credit supply in Germany in a complete electoral cycle) more credit in election years. Credit growth at savings banks increases by 0.7 percentage points, which corresponds to a 40% increase relative to non-election years. Consistent with this result, we also find that the performance of the savings banks follows the same electoral cycle. The loans that the savings banks generate during election years perform worse in the first three years of maturity and loan losses tend to be realized in the middle of the election cycle.
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EFN Report Autumn 2015: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2015 and 2016
European Forecasting Network Reports,
No. 4,
2015
Abstract
For the end of this year and for 2016, chances are good that production in advanced economies will continue to expand a bit faster than at trend rates, while growth dynamics in emerging markets economies will not strengthen or even continue to decrease.
Since autumn 2014, production in the euro area expands at an annualized rate of about 1.5%. The recovery appears to be broad based, with contributions from private consumption, exports, and investment into fixed capital, although it fell back in the second quarter after a strong increase at the beginning of the year. From a regional perspective, the recovery is as well quite broad based: production is expanding in almost every country, surprisingly and according to official data, including Greece.
Structural impediments still limit the ability of the euro area economy to grow strongly: firms and, in particular, private households are only slowly reducing their heavy debt burdens.
According to our forecasts, the euro area GDP will grow by 1.6% in 2015 and by 1.9% in 2016. The high increase in the number of refugees in 2015 will, in principle, positively affect private as well as public consumption, but the effect should be below 0.1 percentage points relative to GDP.
Our inflation forecast for 2015 is 0.1%. For 2016, we expect that inflation will increase to 1.3%, which is still below the ECB’s target of 2%.
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Does the Plant Size–wage Differential Increase with Tenure? Affirming Evidence from German Panel Data
Daniel Fackler, Thorsten Schank, Claus Schnabel
Economics Letters,
2015
Abstract
We show that the major part of the plant size–wage premium in Germany is reflected in different wage growth patterns in plants of different size. This is consistent with the hypothesis that large firms ‘produce’ more skilled workers over time.
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Vierteljährliche Konjunkturberichterstattung für das Land Sachsen-Anhalt - Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Lage im 2. Quartal 2015 -
Brigitte Loose, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Franziska Exß
IWH Online,
No. 10,
2015
Abstract
Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Sachsen-Anhalt hat nach den indikatorgestützten Schätzungen des
IWH im zweiten Quartal des Jahres 2015 mit einer Rate von 1,0% vergleichsweise kräftig
zugenommen, nachdem es zu Jahresbeginn nur stagnierte hatte. Blieb die Expansion im Quartal zuvor deutlich hinter der der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion in Deutschland zurück, so übertrifft sie diese klar im zweiten Quartal. Die Expansion im Verlauf
des ersten Halbjahres insgesamt war damit etwa so stark wie in Deutschland.
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