12.03.2020 • 4/2020
Global economy under the spell of the coronavirus epidemic
The epidemic is obstructing the economic recovery in Germany. Foreign demand is falling, private households forgo domestic consumption if it comes with infection risk, and investments are postponed. Assuming that the spread of the disease can be contained in short time, GDP growth in 2020 is expected to be 0.6% according to IWH spring economic forecast. Growth in East Germany is expected to be 0.9% and thus higher than in West Germany. If the number of new infections cannot be decreased in short time, we expect a recession in Germany.
Oliver Holtemöller
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05.09.2019 • 18/2019
Downturn in Germany continues
Trade disputes are causing international trade in goods to decline this year. The manufacturing industry in Germany is particularly affected by this. However, a robust labour market is supporting the economy. According to IWH autumn economic forecast, German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 0.5% in 2019. At 1%, output growth in East Germany is likely to be significantly higher than in West Germany.
Oliver Holtemöller
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13.06.2019 • 12/2019
Weak foreign demand – economic downturn in Germany
In the summer of 2019, uncertainty due to ongoing trade disputes weighs on the global economy. The export-oriented German economy is particularly affected. According to IWH summer economic forecast, gross domestic product is expected to increase by only 0.5% in 2019; the forecast for East Germany is 0.8%. The German labour market remains largely robust despite the economic downturn.
Oliver Holtemöller
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07.03.2019 • 7/2019
German economy will pick up speed only slowly
In winter of 2018/2019, the global economy weakened considerably, mainly due to economic policy risks. In Germany, the economy will pick up speed only slowly. According to IWH spring economic forecast, gross domestic product will increase by 0.5% in 2019. Growth in East Germany will amount to 0.7%.
Oliver Holtemöller
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14.06.2018 • 14/2018
Current economic outlook: German upswing is slowing down
In summer 2018, the world economy is still rather strong. Dynamics in the euro area, however, have declined markedly, and the cyclical upswing in Germany has almost stalled, due to weaker exports. “Gross domestic product will, according to this forecast, expand by 1.7% in 2018 and by 1.6% in 2019. Growth in East Germany will be about as strong as in Germany as a whole”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at IWH.
Oliver Holtemöller
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15.03.2018 • 3/2018
Consistently strong economy, but risks are increasing
The global upswing continues in 2018. The German economy is cur-rently in a boom and is increasingly coming up against capacity limits. “According to our forecast, gross domestic product will expand by 2.2% in 2018; the general government surplus will amount to 1.1% in relation to gross domestic product. Economic growth in East Germany is likely to be slightly below the German growth rate”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and IWH vice president.
Oliver Holtemöller
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07.09.2017 • 32/2017
The German economy: Growing strongly
In the summer of 2017, the upswing in Germany continues. „For this year, we forecast gross domestic product to expand by 1.9%, as it did in 2016, and for 2018 by 2.0%” says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and IWH vice president.
Oliver Holtemöller
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08.06.2017 • 25/2017
The German Economy: Strong Economic Activity in Germany and in the World
In the early summer of 2017, economic momentum in the world is quite strong. Important general conditions for the global economy are likely to remain favourable: Interest rates will continue to be low almost everywhere, and low inflationary pressure suggests that there are hardly any constraints from the supply side.
Oliver Holtemöller
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12.01.2017 • 6/2017
Aufmacher hui – Qualität pfui Fehlerhafte Darstellung der Qualität der IWH-Prognosen im Handelsblatt
In der Ausgabe vom 09.01.2017 schreibt das Handelsblatt (Norbert Häring: „Neues Jahr, neues Glück“), dass die Konjunkturprognosen der Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute kaum besser seien als eine bloße Fortschreibung der Vorjahreswerte (naive Prognose). Beispielhaft wird eine Graphik („Wachstum hui, Inflation pfui“) zur Prognose der Inflationsrate gezeigt, in der das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) besonders schlecht abschneidet. Oliver Holtemöller, Vizepräsident des IWH und verantwortlich für die IWH-Konjunkturprognosen, stellt hierzu klar: „Die Darstellung des Handelsblatts zur Güte der IWH-Inflationsprognose ist falsch. Der Fehler ist auf handwerkliche Mängel in der wissenschaftlichen Studie zurückzuführen, auf die sich das Handelsblatt beruft.“ Tatsächlich können die Institute die Inflation (und andere wichtige Indikatoren) genauer vorhersagen als eine naive Prognose.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Demographie und Einwanderung
Reint E. Gropp
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2015
Abstract
Die demographischen Effekte sind in Ostdeutschland viel drastischer als in Westdeutschland und viel gravierender auf dem Land als in der Stadt. Die Bevölkerung in Ostdeutschland schrumpft schneller als im Westen, und sie wird immer älter. Manchen Regionen droht die Entvölkerung. Nach Prognosen des Statistischen Bundesamts ist im Jahr 2030 jeder dritte Ostdeutsche 65 Jahre und älter. Der Umgang mit diesem Problem, gerade im Osten, wird in meinen Augen die größte Herausforderung der nächsten Jahrzehnte sein.
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