Konjunktur aktuell: Konjunktur in Deutschland bleibt trotz sinkender Stimmung robust
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 3,
2016
Abstract
In Deutschland sind die Konjunkturaussichten weiter recht günstig. Stimmungsindikatoren deuten zwar auf ein etwas schwächeres Jahresende hin, die Binnenkonjunktur ist aber weiter aufwärtsgerichtet. Das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2016 insgesamt um 1,9% zulegen. Für das Jahr 2017 wird dann mit 1,2% eine niedrigere jahresdurchschnittliche Wachstumsrate erwartet. Maßgeblich dafür sind vor allem schwächere Exporte und stärkere Importe. Die Arbeitslosigkeit dürfte im Zuge der Integration von Geflüchteten in den Arbeitsmarkt etwas steigen. Die Verbraucherpreisinflation bleibt weiterhin moderat. Die öffentlichen Haushalte werden wohl im Jahr 2016 ebenso wie im Jahr 2017 – auch in konjunkturbereinigter Rechnung – Überschüsse erwirtschaften.
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24.02.2016 • 8/2016
Regionale Verteilung von Flüchtlingen in Deutschland
Angesichts hoher Flüchtlingszahlen und der nicht funktionsfähigen gemeinsamen europäischen Asylpolitik muss die regionale Verteilung der Flüchtlinge in Deutschland nach Einschätzung des IWH neu überdacht werden. Soziale Netzwerke und die regionale Arbeitsmarktlage sind dabei wichtige Indikatoren. Eine optimale Verteilung ist mit bürokratischen Mitteln allerdings kaum zu erreichen. Letztlich müssen Marktkräfte einen interregionalen Ausgleich unterstützen. Dafür bedarf es aber entsprechender Anreize sowohl für die Flüchtlinge als auch für die politischen Entscheidungsträger vor Ort – eine Herausforderung für Regionalpolitik und Finanzausgleich.
Oliver Holtemöller
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21.12.2015 • 47/2015
Flüchtlingsmigration – Eine globale humanitäre Krise erreicht Deutschland
Täglich suchen tausende von Flüchtlingen Asyl in Europa. Die gegenwärtige Situation trägt krisenhafte Züge, unter anderem, weil das bestehende Asylsystem in Europa grundsätzliche Probleme aufweist. Es ist der momentanen Lage nicht gewachsen – und das, obwohl die Problematik an sich nicht neu ist. Die Integration der ankommenden Menschen in Gesellschaft und Arbeitsmarkt hat sprachliche, qualifikatorische, kulturelle und politische Dimensionen. In einem heute erscheinenden Policy Brief des Leibniz-Forschungsverbunds „Krisen einer globalisierten Welt“ wird die aktuelle Flüchtlingsmigration nach Europa aus verschiedenen Perspektiven betrachtet und Literatur aus den beteiligten Instituten zu diesem Thema in einen Kontext gesetzt.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Refugee Migration – A Global Humanitarian Crisis Reaches Germany
Policy Brief Nr.,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
Die gegenwärtige Situation der Flüchtlingsmigration nach Europa trägt krisenhafte Züge, zum einen aufgrund der großen Zahl der Flüchtenden, zum anderen, weil das bestehende Asylsystem in Europa grundsätzliche Probleme aufweist und daher der Lage nicht gewachsen ist – und das, obwohl die Problematik an sich nicht neu ist. Die Integration der ankommenden Menschen in Gesellschaft und Arbeitsmarkt hat sprachliche, qualifikatorische, kulturelle und politische Dimensionen.
Im Leibniz-Forschungsverbund “Krisen einer globalisierten Welt“ arbeiten 23 Leibniz-Institute zusammen, um inter- und transdisziplinär die Mechanismen und Dynamiken von Krisen und deren wechselseitige Interdependenzen besser zu verstehen. Im vorliegenden Policy Brief wird die aktuelle Flüchtlingsmigration nach Europa aus verschiedenen Perspektiven betrachtet und Literatur aus den beteiligten Instituten zu diesem Thema in einen Kontext gesetzt.
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Consequences of China’s Opening to Foreign Banks
Ran Li, Xiang Li, Wen Lei, Yiping Huang
L. Song, R. Garnaut, C. Fang, L. Johnston (Hrsg.), China's Domestic Transformation in a Global Context. Acton: ANU Press,
forthcoming
Abstract
China’s government has recently implemented additional reforms to relax the regulatory environment for foreign banks. Specifically, State Council Order No. 657, signed by Premier Li Keqiang, announced a decision to revise the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on the Administration of Foreign-Funded Banks, effective from 1 January 2015. Implications of the revised regulations include removal of the requirement that a minimum of RMB100 million operating capital be transferred unconditionally from the overseas parent bank to the newly opened Chinese branch. In addition, in terms of the conditions attached to the right to carry out RMB-denominated activity, foreign banks are now eligible to apply to undertake local currency business after operating in China for one year—down from the previous three years. The requirement for two consecutive years of profit will be scrapped as well.
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The Development of Cities and Municipalities in Central and Eastern Europe: Introduction for a Special Issue of 'Urban Research and Practice'
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Albrecht Kauffmann
Urban Research & Practice, Vol. 7 (3),
No. 3,
2014
Abstract
Since the 1990s, local governments in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have been confronted by completely new structures and developments. This came after more than 40 years (or even longer in the case of the former Soviet Union) under a socialist regime and behind an iron curtain which isolated them from the non-socialist world. A lack of resources had led to an underinvestment in the refurbishment of older buildings, while relatively cheap ‘prefabricated’ housing had been built, not only in the outskirts of cities, but also within city centres. A lack of resources had also resulted in the fact that the socialist regimes were generally unable to replace old buildings with ‘modern’ ones; hence, there is a very rich heritage of historical monuments in many of these cities today. The centrally planned economies and the development of urban structures (including the shifts of population between cities and regions) were determined by ideology, political rationality and the integration of all CEE countries into the production schemes of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance and its division of labour by location. The sudden introduction of a market economy, private property, democratic rules, local autonomy for cities and municipalities and access to the global economy and society may be seen as a kind of ‘natural experiment’. How would these new conditions shape the national systems of cities and municipalities? Which cities would shrink and which would grow? How would the relationship between core cities and their surrounding municipalities develop? And what would happen within these cities and with their built environment?
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The Euro Plus Pact: Cost Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries
Hubert Gabrisch, K. Staehr
Abstract
The Euro Plus Pact was approved by 23 EU countries in March 2011 and came into force shortly afterwards. The Pact stipulates a range of quantitative targets meant to strengthen cost competitiveness with the aim of preventing the accumulation of external financial imbalances. This paper uses Granger causality tests and vector autoregressive models to assess the short-term linkages between changes in the relative unit labour cost and changes in the current account balance. The sample consists of annual data for 27 EU countries for the period 1995-2012. The main finding is that changes in the current account balance precedes changes in relative unit labour costs, while there is no discernible effect in the opposite direction. The divergence in unit labour costs between the countries in Northern Europe and the countries in Southern and Eastern Europe may thus partly be the result of capital flows from the core of Europe to the periphery prior to the global financial crisis. The results also suggest that the measures in the Euro Plus Pact to restrain the growth of unit labour costs may not affect the current account balance in the short term.
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FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2013 in East Germany and Selected CEE Countries
Andrea Gauselmann, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
2013
Abstract
With the integration of post-communist countries into the European and global economy
after 1990, there was strong research interest into the role of multinational enterprises
(MNEs) for economic restructuring and technological catching-up. Most of the existing
empirical studies on locational determinants of FDI and host country effects did not take
account of East Germany. This might be for different reasons: Firstly, theoretical and
empirical difficulties derive from the fact that East Germany followed a distinct transition
pattern as it became a region subsumed in a larger and more mature economy. Secondly,
East Germany received private investment from foreign as well as West German firms. Only
the first can be considered as a foreign direct investment (FDI). Finally, there had long been
a lack of micro data to adequately analyse the activities of corresponding firms from a
production as well as technological perspective.
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FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2012 in East Germany
Jutta Günther, Andrea Gauselmann, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek, Jan Engelhardt
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
2012
Abstract
With the integration of post-communist countries into the European and global economy
after 1990, there was strong research interest into the role of multinational enterprises
(MNEs) for economic restructuring and technological catching-up. Most of the existing
empirical studies on locational determinants of FDI and host country effects did not take
account of East Germany. This might be for different reasons: Firstly, theoretical and
empirical difficulties derive from the fact that East Germany followed a distinct transition
pattern as it became a region subsumed in a larger and more mature economy. Secondly,
East Germany received private investment from foreign as well as West German firms. Only
the first can be considered as a foreign direct investment (FDI). Finally, there had long been
a lack of micro data to adequately analyse the activities of corresponding firms from a
production as well as technological perspective.
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Internationalisation Theory and Technological Accumulation - An Investigation of Multinational Affiliates in East Germany
Björn Jindra
Studies in Economic Transition, London,
2012
Abstract
The integration of post-communist countries into the European and global economy after 1990 has led to a renewed interest in the role of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in economic restructuring and technological development. This book explains the expansion of MNEs into a transition economy from the technology accumulation perspective. Key assumptions of the technological accumulation approach towards firms' internationalisation are tested, using the examples of foreign and West German MNEs in East Germany. The effects of technological externalities on MNE location choice are analysed, in addition to an exploration of the factors driving the location of foreign affiliates' research and development (R&D) and innovation activities. The book provides a novel and comprehensive empirical approach to assess the developmental role of MNEs, deriving significant economic policy implications for transition and emerging economies.
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