19.04.2018 • 8/2018
Ostdeutsche Produktion expandiert wieder langsamer als in Deutschland insgesamt – Implikationen der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2018 und amtlicher Daten für die ost-deutsche Wirtschaft im Jahr 2017
Für das Jahr 2018 prognostiziert das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) einen Anstieg des ostdeutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts mit Berlin um 1,8% (Gemeinschaftsdiagnose für Deutschland insgesamt 2,2%). Im Jahr 2019 dürfte der Abstand zur gesamtdeutschen Zuwachsrate wieder etwas geringer werden (Ostdeutschland: 1,8%, Deutschland insgesamt: 2,0%).
Oliver Holtemöller
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27.09.2018 • 19/2018
Upswing in East Germany has slowed, but continues – implications of the joint forecast of the German economic research institutes in autumn 2018 and of official data for the Eastern German economy in the first half of 2018
The German institutes forecast a slowdown in the cyclical upswing in Germany. Foreign demand, in particular from other euro area countries, has eased, and capacity constraints make it increasingly difficult for companies to expand production. Both arguments apply to East Germany as well: high vacancy rates indicate that labour may be even scarcer than in the West despite higher unemployment. Moreover, a particularly high proportion of East German exports go to other European countries. Important drivers of growth in the East, however, are still intact: unlike the manufacturing sector, services have been rising a bit faster in recent years in East Germany than in the West. Providers of services benefit from significantly rising disposable incomes of private households, as employment is currently expanding healthily and at only a slightly slower pace than in West Germany, despite poorer demographic conditions. Retirement pensions in East Germany have also been increased considerably.
Oliver Holtemöller
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14.10.2021 • 26/2021
East German economy less affected by supply bottlenecks than German economy as a whole, but lower vaccination rates pose risks – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2021 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Federal Statisti
Supply bottlenecks affect production in the manufacturing sector in East Germany somewhat less than in Germany as a whole. With 1.8%, the increase in Gross Domestic Product in eastern Germany in 2021 therefore is likely to be lower than in Germany as a whole (2.4%); this gap is likely to enlarge in 2022, when supply bottlenecks hamper less (East Germany: 3.6%, Germany 4.8%).
Oliver Holtemöller
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07.10.2016 • 43/2016
IWH-Bauumfrage im dritten Quartal 2016: Ostdeutsches Baugewerbe in glänzender Stimmung
Das Geschäftsklima im ostdeutschen Baugewerbe hat sich laut Umfrage des IWH im Sommer 2016 nochmals verbessert. Sowohl die Lage als auch die Aussichten erreichen neue Höchstwerte seit Beginn der Umfrage im Jahr 1993. Dabei setzt die Geschäftslage ihren Höhenflug vom Frühjahr weiter fort. Die Geschäftsaussichten, die zunächst dreimal in Folge auf hohem Niveau stagnierten, lassen nun auf eine weitere Verbesserung der Lage im nächsten halben Jahr schließen.
Brigitte Loose
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04.04.2019 • 10/2019
Service providers in Berlin give boost to East German economy – implications of the Joint Economic Forecast and of official data on the East German economy in 2018
In its spring report, the Joint Economic Forecast group states that the upturn in Germany came to an end in the second half of 2018, mainly because the manufacturing sector is weakening due to a slowing international economy and to problems in the automotive industry. Accordingly, in places such as Saxony (1.2%), Thuringia (0.5%), and Saxony-Anhalt (0.9%), where manufacturing plays a particularly important role, gross domestic product (GDP) grew less than in Germany as a whole (1.4%).
Oliver Holtemöller
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