Analyse der Effekte des Atomausstiegs auf die deutschen Großhandelsstrompreise 2023
Christoph Schult
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2024
Abstract
Seit dem Atomausstieg am 15. April 2023 sind die Großhandelsstrompreise in Deutschland deutlich gesunken. Innerhalb des deutschen Merit-Order-Systems galten Atomkraftwerke als die kostengünstigste Form der Stromerzeugung. Hätten die Atomkraftwerke weiterbetrieben werden können, wären die Großhandelsstrompreise für den Zeitraum vom 16. April 2023 bis zum 31. Dezember 2023 voraussichtlich um 1% bis 8% niedriger gewesen. Insbesondere im Oktober hätte der Weiterbetrieb der Atomkraftwerke die Großhandelsstrompreise gesenkt, vor allem in Zeiten hoher Stromnachfrage und geringer Verfügbarkeit erneuerbarer Energien.
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The Effects of the Iberian Exception Mechanism on Wholesale Electricity Prices and Consumer Inflation: A Synthetic-controls Approach
Miguel Haro Ruiz, Christoph Schult, Christoph Wunder
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 5,
2024
Abstract
This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation.
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IWH-Tarif-Check: Aktuelle Tarifabschlüsse bedeuten Reallohnverluste 2024
Oliver Holtemöller, Birgit Schultz
IWH-Tarif-Check,
No. 2,
2023
Abstract
*** Vergleich der Tariflohnabschlüsse von Chemischer Industrie, Deutscher Post, Metall- und Elektroindustrie und öffentlichem Dienst von Bund und Kommunen *** Die hohe Verbraucherpreisinflation hat den Lohndruck bei den Tarifverhandlungen stark erhöht. Das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) hat die Lohnabschlüsse für vier ausgewählte Branchen, die sich im vergangenen Halbjahr auf Neuabschlüsse geeinigt haben, verglichen. Dabei zeigen sich hohe nominale Lohnsteigerungen. Insbesondere die Inflationsausgleichsprämie, die in allen vier Branchen bis zur maximalen Höhe von 3000 Euro vereinbart wurde, lässt die Bruttolöhne kräftig steigen. In der Chemischen Industrie, in der es bereits in der vergangenen Lohnrunde eine hohe Einmalzahlung gab, füllt die vereinbarte Inflationsausgleichszahlung diese Lücke.
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08.09.2022 • 22/2022
Energy crisis in Germany
Dwindling gas supplies from Russia and soaring prices for gas and electricity are leading to massive real income losses and a recession in Europe and Germany. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 1.1% in 2022 and decrease by 1.4% in 2023. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 7.9% in 2022 and 9.5% in 2023.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany
Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Christoph Schult
Energy Economics,
2021
Abstract
In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040.
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Banking Deregulation and Household Consumption of Durables
H. Evren Damar, Ian Lange, Caitlin McKennie, Mirko Moro
Abstract
We exploit the spatial and temporal variation of the staggered introduction of interstate banking deregulation across the U.S. to study the relationship between credit constraints and consumption of durables. Using the American Housing Survey from 1981 to 1993, we link the timing of these reforms with evidence of a credit expansion and household responses on many margins. We find robust evidence that households are more likely to purchase new appliances and invest in home renovations and modifications after the deregulation. These durable goods allowed households to consume less electricity and spend less time in domestic activities after the reforms.
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Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany
Christoph Schult, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract
In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6,300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040
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Ceremonial Encapsulation and the Diffusion of Renewable Energy Technology in Germany
Iciar Dominguez Lacasa
Journal of Economic Issues,
No. 4,
2014
Abstract
This inquiry employs ideas advanced by institutionalist thinker Paul Dale Bush to shed light on technology diffusion in Germany’s electrical generation and distribution industry. Research findings suggest that what Bush labeled as ceremonial dominance affects outcomes in technology selection. Evidence suggests that fossil fuel and nuclear technologies have remained favored by power producers despite the externalized environmental costs to society associated with their implementations. Advances in government policy have indeed created a framework that favorably accommodates renewable energy technologies. However, what Bush labeled ceremonial dominance is shown to persist and to contribute to ceremonial encapsulation. Consequently, renewable energy technologies have diffused only to the point that the powers behind the industry remain in dominant positions. Although there is measurable, incremental technological change in the electrical power industry, in light of the urgency of climate change problems, technologies supporting the electrical power system need to be selected more judiciously.
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Technological Activities in CEE Countries: A Patent Analysis for the Period 1980-2009
Iciar Dominguez Lacasa, Alexander Giebler
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 2,
2014
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze the technological activities of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies and to compare them with the technological activities of other world regions. Using data from the EPO World Wide Statistical Database for the period 1980-2009 the analysis is based on counts of priority patent applications over time. In terms of priority patent applications, CEE reduced its technological activities drastically in absolute and per capita terms after 1990. The level of priority patent applications in this world region maintained more recently a stable level below the performance of EU15, South EU and the former USSR. In what concerns technological specialization, the results suggest a division of labor in technological activities among world regions where Europe, Latin America and the former USSR are mainly specializing in sectors losing technological dynamism in the global patent activities (Chemicals and/or Mechanical Engineering) while North America, the Middle East (especially Israel) and Asia Pacific are increasingly specializing in Electrical Engineering, a sector with strong technological opportunities.
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Quality of Service, Efficiency, and Scale in Network Industries: An Analysis of European Electricity Distribution. EPRG Working Paper 05/04
Christian Growitsch, Tooraj Jamasb, Michael Pollitt
Externe Publikationen,
2005
Abstract
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