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07.03.2024 • 6/2024

Germany stuck in stagnation ‒ private consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels

Weak consumption and investment in Germany are partly due to inflation-induced losses in real income and declines in energy-intensive production. However, concerns about the competitive strength of the German economy are also weighing on the willingness of private households and companies to spend. In its spring forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to expand by just 0.2% in 2024, while the forecast for 2025 includes growth of 1.5% (eastern Germany: 0.5% and 1.4%). Last December, the IWH forecast had assumed an increase of 0.5% for Germany in 2024 and of 1.2% for 2025.

Oliver Holtemöller
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06.07.2023 • 18/2023

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Insolvenzen so hoch wie seit sieben Jahren nicht mehr

Die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften ist im Juni auf den höchsten Wert seit 2016 angestiegen. Auch die Zahl der betroffenen Arbeitsplätze war im Juni hoch.

Steffen Müller
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18
JUL 2023
14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Business Education and Portfolio Returns

Who
Yigitcan Karabulut (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management)
Where
IWH, conference room and via Zoom

We provide evidence of a positive causal link between financial knowledge acquired through business education and returns on stock investments.

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11
JUL 2023
14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

McMonopsony

Who
Štěpán Jurajda (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education – Economics Institute)
Where
IWH, conference room, Leipziger Straße 100 and via Zoom

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08
JUN 2023
09
JUN 2023

Workshops and conferences

3rd Finance and Productivity (FINPRO) Conference "Green Deal: Reformation, Evolution, and Revolution"

Who
Keynote Speaker: Philippe Aghion (Insead, London School of Economics and Political Science ‒LSE and Centre for Economic Policy Research ‒ CEPR)
Where
Bank of Italy, via Nazionale 91, 00184 Rome, Italy

A conference jointly organised by the Bank of Italy, the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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22.06.2023 • 16/2023

Revival in service sectors, but industrial activity remains weak for the time being

After the recession during winter, the German economy will expand at a moderate pace in the coming quarters and despite higher interest rates, as private consumption will pick up again with slowly declining inflation and increased wage momentum. In its summer forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to decline by 0.3% in 2023, while growth of 1.7% is forecast for the coming year.

Oliver Holtemöller
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08.06.2023 • 15/2023

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten stabil, vor allem junge Unternehmen betroffen

Wie vom Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) prognostiziert, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften im Mai nicht weiter angestiegen. Zwei Drittel der insolventen Unternehmen waren höchstens zehn Jahre alt.

Steffen Müller
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27
JUN 2023
14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Same Same But Different - Credit Risk Provisioning under IFRS 9

Who
Markus Behn (Europäische Zentralbank)
Where
IWH, conference room, Leipziger Straße 100 and via Zoom

We analyse the impact of the adoption of expected credit loss accounting (IFRS 9) on the timeliness and potential procyclicality of banks' loan loss provisioning using granular loan-level data from the euro area's credit register.

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23.05.2023 • 14/2023

Analysis of earnings calls: Blathering managers harm their company

If a senior executive refuses to give information to professional investors, the company's stock market value drops afterwards. This is shown in a study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) after evaluating 1.2 million answers from tele-phone conferences.

Fabian Wöbbeking
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04
JUL 2023
14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Mind the Gap: Gender Disparity in Depositor Responses to Bank Regulatory Actions

Who
Rimmy Tomy (The University of Chicago, Booth School of Business)
Where
IWH, conference room, Leipziger Straße 100 and via Zoom

We utilize branch-level data on deposits of commercial banks in India to study heterogeneity in depositors' responses to the disclosure of significant regulatory penalties. We find that men respond to such monetary penalties by withdrawing their deposits, whereas women do not.

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