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Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent

IWH founds a European centre for microdata research

The Halle Institute is once again growing significantly. Its new "Centre for Business and Productivity Dynamics" aims to understand better the structural change in Europe's economies. Microdata at firm level allow deeper insights into productivity, a prerequisite for prosperity.

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Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties

Globalisation has led to an increase in votes for the political fringes in Europe. A study by the Halle Institute is the first to show the long-term consequences of increased Chinese imports: Far-right and populist parties have benefited from the China shock.

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New database on Europe's real estate markets

Exclusively for non-commercial scientific purposes, the IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI) provides a comprehensive overview of residential property offers for sale and rent in 18 European countries.

Solidarity with Ukraine

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany draws consequences for academia.

Ein Heißluftballon schebt im blauen Himmel.

The Halle Spirit

We provide independent research on economic topics that aim to enrich society with facts and evidence-based insights that facilitate better economic decisions. We focus on growth and productivity. We promote young talents and work in flat hierarchies.

To the IWH mission statement

What are you interested in?

Research Networks, Data and Policy Advice

Press Releases

10.04.2025 • 14/2025

In East Germany, as in the west, the economy is in crisis - Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2025 and new data for the East German economy

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Abstract

In 2024, the economy in East Germany shrank by 0.1% and in Germany as a whole by 0.2%. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects stagnation for East Germany in 2025 and growth of 1.1% in 2026. According to the IWH forecast, the unemployment rate is expected to be 7.8% in both 2025 and 2026, after 7.5% in 2024.

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10.04.2025 • 13/2025

Joint Economic Forecast 1/2025: Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Abstract

The German economy will continue to tread water in 2025. In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of just 0.1% for the current year. For 2026, the institutes expect gross domestic product to increase by 1.3%. In the short term, the new US trade policy and economic policy uncertainty are weighing on the German economy. The additional scope for public debt should gradually have an expansionary effect, but threatens to crowd out private consumption and private investment.

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08.04.2025 • 12/2025

IWH-Tarif-Check: Keine realen Netto-Tariflohnzuwächse für Beschäftigte im Öffentlichen Dienst

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Birgit Schultz

Abstract

Steigende Sozialabgaben und Inflation fressen Gehaltsplus der Beschäftigten bei Bund und Kommunen auf

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08.04.2025 • 11/2025

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Weiterhin Höchststände bei Insolvenzzahlen, Industrie stark betroffen

Professor Dr Steffen Müller

Abstract

Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Analyse feststellt, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im März geringfügig gestiegen. Im ersten Quartal 2025 wurde das vergangene Rekordquartal nochmals leicht übertroffen. Am meisten Jobs waren in der Industrie betroffen.

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Browse all press releases

Media Centre

Facts and Figures

The international political environment has fundamentally changed with looming trade wars and a deteriorating security situation in Europe. According to the spring forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product in 2025 is likely to be roughly the same as in the previous year, and it will not increase significantly until 2026 (Data: March 11, 2025).

This figure shows the different pillars that form the basis of the new regulatory framework in Europe. The Single Rulebook applies to all 28 member states. The three pillars of the European Banking Union are obligatory for Euro Area countries and voluntary for the remaining EU member states. Source: Koetter, Michael; Krause, Thomas; Tonzer, Lena (2017): Delay determinants of European Banking Union implementation. IWH Discussion Papers 24/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

The graph shows the percentage share of firms that have been classified as zombies in a given year and country. Zombie firms are firms, that for at least two consecutive years have negative returns, negative investment, and debt servicing capacity (EBITDA/ financial debt) below 5 %. Source: Koetter, Michael; Setzer, Ralph; Storz, Manuela; Westphal, Andreas (2017): Do we want these two to tango? On zombie firms and stressed banks in Europe. IWH Discussion Papers 13/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

EU: European Commission, Economic Forecast, November 2017; IMF: World Economic Outlook, October 2017, ECB: December 2017 staff macroeconomic projections. OECD: Economic Outlook, November 2017; Consensus: Consensus Economics, Consensus Forecasts, December 2017. Source: EFN-European Forecasting Network (2017): EFN Report: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2018 and 2019.

This figure (a) shows headline inflation rates in the Euro area and in ten member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU). The possible inflation drivers may all have contributed to the low inflation rate in recent years. The series of survey- and market-based inflation expectations were obtained from Consensus Economics, Thomson Reuters and own calculations. For the remaining data sources it is referred to the data and estimation section. Source: Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Holtemöller, Oliver (2017): Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations. IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

This figure (b) shows unemployment rates in the Euro area and in ten member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU). The possible inflation drivers may all have contributed to the low inflation rate in recent years. The series of survey- and market-based inflation expectations were obtained from Consensus Economics, Thomson Reuters and own calculations. For the remaining data sources it is referred to the data and estimation section. Source: Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Holtemöller, Oliver (2017): Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations. IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

This figure shows the payments of the bank levy (in million euros) by German banks for the years 2011-2015, broken down by banking group. During the years 2011-2014, banks had to contribute to the national restructuring fund as specified in the Restructuring Fund Act. In 2015, banks contributions were for the first time calculated as specified in the Banking Resolution and Restructuring Directive. Source of Figure: Deutscher Bundestag Drucksache 18/5993, BB8/5993he 18 5 December 2015. Source: Buch, Claudia; Tonzer, Lena; Weigert, Benjamin (2017): Assessing the effects of regulatory bank levies. VOX CEPR's Policy Portal: Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists.

This figure shows the development of aggregated foreign funding for Brazilian banks between January 2007 and December 2010. The vertical line is set at September 2008, the month when the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a freeze in global interbank markets. Foreign funding is aggregated from the bank-level data in the baseline sample. The variable is reported in real 2013 US$ millions. Source: Noth, Felix; Ossandon Busch, Matias (2017): Banking globalization, local lending, and labor market effects: Micro-level evidence from Brazil. IWH Discussion Papers 7/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

The unemployment rate of EU nationals in most countries is slightly higher than that of domestic nationals; these rates are almost perfectly correlated for all member states. As the figure displays, the unemployment rate of citizens from non-EU member states is significantly higher than that of domestic nationals in almost all countries; the dispersion of the rates is also significantly greater. Source: Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel; Schmalzbauer, Andreas; Zeddies, Götz (2016): On the Distribution of Refugees in the EU. In: Intereconomics, Volume 51, July/August 2016, Number 4, pp. 220-228.

In fact, there is a positive correlation between the number of applications for asylum in recent years and the difference in the unemployment rates of domestic nationals and of citizens from non-EU member states (as shown in the figure at hand). This indicates that the marginal costs of integrating refugees do indeed increase as the number of refugees grows. Source: Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel; Schmalzbauer, Andreas; Zeddies, Götz (2016): On the Distribution of Refugees in the EU. In: Intereconomics, Volume 51, July/August 2016, Number 4, pp. 220-228.

Large differences between nationals and foreigners from non-EU countries can also be observed when it comes to the employment rate. In most countries, the employment rate is considerably lower for non-EU citizens than for domestic nationals; this is the case especially for women, but it applies to men as well. While the employment rate of male non-EU foreigners increases at least somewhat with the employment rate of male domestic nationals, the employment rate of female non-EU foreigners is largely disconnected from the domestic rate (see figure above). Source: Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel; Schmalzbauer, Andreas; Zeddies, Götz (2016): On the Distribution of Refugees in the EU. In: Intereconomics, Volume 51, July/August 2016, Number 4, pp. 220-228.

Figure_8_Average_work_performance_corresponding_to_meaning_of_task.jpg — The figure demonstrates that the average number of responses differs between the three treatment groups "Original Meaning", "No Meaning" and "Alternative Meaning". It shows the average work performance of workers fulfilling the same task with the same reward but with different information about the usefulness or meaning of their work done before. Since some workers did not respond at first and only participated in the experiment as latecomers after they were sent further invitations, these were considered as a special group. Therefore, two different groups were created "Immediate" and "Pooled" and were considered separately. In essence, the additional "Pooled" group consists of latecomers grouped together with the employees that immediately participated in the experiment. Source: Chadi, Adrian; Jeworrek, Sabrina; Mertins, Vanessa (2016): When the Meaning of Work Has Disappeared: Experimental Evidence on Employees’ Performance and Emotions. Management Science 63(6): 1696-1707.

Publications

The (Heterogeneous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts

Steven J. Davis John Haltiwanger Kyle Handley Ben Lipsius Josh Lerner Javier Miranda

in: Management Science, forthcoming

Abstract

The effects of private equity buyouts on employment, productivity, and job reallocation vary tremendously with macroeconomic and credit conditions, across private equity groups, and by type of buyout. We reach this conclusion by examining the most extensive database of U.S. buyouts ever compiled, encompassing thousands of buyout targets from 1980 to 2013 and millions of control firms. Employment shrinks 12% over two years after buyouts of publicly listed firms—on average, and relative to control firms—but expands 15% after buyouts of privately held firms. Postbuyout productivity gains at target firms are large on average and much larger yet for deals executed amid tight credit conditions. A postbuyout tightening of credit conditions or slowing of gross domestic product growth curtails employment growth and intrafirm job reallocation at target firms. We also show that buyout effects differ across the private equity groups that sponsor buyouts, and these differences persist over time at the group level. Rapid upscaling in deal flow at the group level brings lower employment growth at target firms. We relate these findings to theories of private equity that highlight agency problems at portfolio firms and within the private equity industry itself.

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COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic

Alena Bičáková Štěpán Jurajda

in: Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming

Abstract

We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.

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CEO Personality Traits and Compensation: Evidence from Investment Efficiency

Yao Du Iftekhar Hasan Chih-Yung Lin Chien-Lin Lu

in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, forthcoming

Abstract

We examine the effects of the big five personalities of CEOs (openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism) on their annual compensation. We hand-collect the tweets of S&P 1500 CEOs and use IBM's Watson Personality Insights to measure their personalities. CEOs with high ratings of agreeableness and conscientiousness get more compensation. We further find that the firms with these CEOs outperform their peers due to better investment efficiency. Firms are willing to pay higher compensation for talent, especially for firms with better operations, located in states with higher labor unionization, or facing higher competition in the product market. Overall, CEO personality is a valid predictor of CEOs' compensation.

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Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result

Florin Bilbiie Mathias Trabandt

in: Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming

Abstract

We show an equivalence result in the standard representative agent New Keynesian model after demand, wage markup and correlated price markup and TFP shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case- flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence result arises if the price and wage Phillips curves' slopes are identical and generalizes to any pair of price and wage Phillips curve slopes such that their sum and product are identical. Nevertheless, the cyclical implications for profits and wages are substantially different. We discuss how the equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale in production. Lastly, we point to an econometric identification problem raised by our equivalence result and discuss possible solutions thereof.

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Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Katja Heinisch

in: Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming

Abstract

The European Commission’s growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of multi-period ahead quarterly GDP growth forecasts for the European Union (EU), euro area, and several EU member states with respect to first-release and current-release data. Forecast revisions and forecast errors are analyzed, and the results show that the forecasts are not systematically biased. However, GDP forecasts for several member states tend to be overestimated at short-time horizons. Furthermore, the final forecast revision in the current quarter is generally downward biased for almost all countries. Overall, the differences in mean forecast errors are minor when using real-time data or pseudo-real-time data and these differences do not significantly impact the overall assessment of the forecasts’ quality. Additionally, the forecast performance varies across countries, with smaller countries and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) experiencing larger forecast errors. The paper provides evidence that there is still potential for improvement in forecasting techniques both for nowcasts but also forecasts up to eight quarters ahead. In the latter case, the performance of the mean forecast tends to be superior for many countries.

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Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Henning Hermes Philipp Lergetporer Frauke Peter Simon Wiederhold

in: Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

Abstract

Why are children with lower socioeconomic status (SES) substantially less likely to be enrolled in child care? We study whether barriers in the application process work against lower-SES children — the group known to benefit strongest from child care enrollment. In an RCT in Germany with highly subsidized child care (N = 607), we offer treated families information and personal assistance for applications. We find substantial, equity-enhancing effects of the treatment, closing half of the large SES gap in child care enrollment. Increased enrollment for lower-SES families is likely driven by altered application knowledge and behavior. We discuss scalability of our intervention and derive policy implications for the design of universal child care programs.

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The Effects of the Iberian Exception Mechanism on Wholesale Electricity Prices and Consumer Inflation: A Synthetic-controls Approach

Miguel Haro Ruiz Christoph Schult Christoph Wunder

in: Applied Economic Letters, forthcoming

Abstract

This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation.

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Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: World Economy, forthcoming

Abstract

The Roy-Borjas model predicts that international migrants are less educated than nonmigrants because the returns to education are generally higher in developing (migrant-sending) than in developed (migrant-receiving) countries. However, empirical evidence often shows the opposite. Using the case of Mexico-U.S. migration, we show that this inconsistency between predictions and empirical evidence can be resolved when the human capital of migrants is assessed using a two-dimensional measure of occupational skills rather than by educational attainment. Thus, focusing on a single skill dimension when investigating migrant selection can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying economic incentives and behavioral models of migration.

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Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Danny McGowan Huyen Nguyen Klaus Schaeck

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

We study how deposit competition affects a bank's decision to securitize mortgages. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the U.S. as a source of competition, we find a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize mortgage loans. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in deposit costs and corresponding reductions in banks' deposit holdings. Our results are strongest among banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight a hitherto undocumented and unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.

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The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Nils Torben Hollandt Steffen Müller

in: Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming

Abstract

Wage mobility reduces the persistence of wage inequality. We develop a framework to quantify the contribution of employer-to-employer movers to aggregate wage mobility. Using three decades of German social security data, we find that inequality increased while aggregate wage mobility decreased. Employer-to-employer movers exhibit higher wage mobility, mainly due to changes in employer wage premia at job change. The massive structural changes following German unification temporarily led to a high number of movers, which in turn boosted aggregate wage mobility. Wage mobility is much lower at the bottom of the wage distribution, and the decline in aggregate wage mobility since the 1980s is concentrated there. The overall decline can be mostly attributed to a reduction in wage mobility per mover, which is due to a compositional shift toward lower-wage movers.

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The (Heterogeneous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts

Steven J. Davis John Haltiwanger Kyle Handley Ben Lipsius Josh Lerner Javier Miranda

in: Management Science, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic

Alena Bičáková Štěpán Jurajda

in: Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

CEO Personality Traits and Compensation: Evidence from Investment Efficiency

Yao Du Iftekhar Hasan Chih-Yung Lin Chien-Lin Lu

in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result

Florin Bilbiie Mathias Trabandt

in: Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Katja Heinisch

in: Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Henning Hermes Philipp Lergetporer Frauke Peter Simon Wiederhold

in: Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Effects of the Iberian Exception Mechanism on Wholesale Electricity Prices and Consumer Inflation: A Synthetic-controls Approach

Miguel Haro Ruiz Christoph Schult Christoph Wunder

in: Applied Economic Letters, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: World Economy, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Danny McGowan Huyen Nguyen Klaus Schaeck

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Nils Torben Hollandt Steffen Müller

in: Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Facts and Figures
Publications

The (Heterogeneous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts

Steven J. Davis John Haltiwanger Kyle Handley Ben Lipsius Josh Lerner Javier Miranda

in: Management Science, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic

Alena Bičáková Štěpán Jurajda

in: Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

CEO Personality Traits and Compensation: Evidence from Investment Efficiency

Yao Du Iftekhar Hasan Chih-Yung Lin Chien-Lin Lu

in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result

Florin Bilbiie Mathias Trabandt

in: Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Katja Heinisch

in: Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Henning Hermes Philipp Lergetporer Frauke Peter Simon Wiederhold

in: Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Effects of the Iberian Exception Mechanism on Wholesale Electricity Prices and Consumer Inflation: A Synthetic-controls Approach

Miguel Haro Ruiz Christoph Schult Christoph Wunder

in: Applied Economic Letters, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: World Economy, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Danny McGowan Huyen Nguyen Klaus Schaeck

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Nils Torben Hollandt Steffen Müller

in: Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The (Heterogeneous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts

Steven J. Davis John Haltiwanger Kyle Handley Ben Lipsius Josh Lerner Javier Miranda

in: Management Science, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic

Alena Bičáková Štěpán Jurajda

in: Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

CEO Personality Traits and Compensation: Evidence from Investment Efficiency

Yao Du Iftekhar Hasan Chih-Yung Lin Chien-Lin Lu

in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result

Florin Bilbiie Mathias Trabandt

in: Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Katja Heinisch

in: Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Henning Hermes Philipp Lergetporer Frauke Peter Simon Wiederhold

in: Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Effects of the Iberian Exception Mechanism on Wholesale Electricity Prices and Consumer Inflation: A Synthetic-controls Approach

Miguel Haro Ruiz Christoph Schult Christoph Wunder

in: Applied Economic Letters, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: World Economy, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Danny McGowan Huyen Nguyen Klaus Schaeck

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Nils Torben Hollandt Steffen Müller

in: Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Current Events

Apr 2025

10:30 - 18:30

Workshops and conferences

Financial Regulation − Going Green 2025

several lecturers

View event

Browse all events

IWH at a Glance

Afroza Alam Annika Backes Shai B. Bernstein Matthias Brachert Richard Bräuer Arsène Buzima Dunia Mete Can Jonathan Deist Eva Dettmann Julian Andres Diaz Acosta André Diegmann Andrej Drygalla Ofer Eldar Marius Fourné Sarah Fritz Jannik Greif Reint E. Gropp Alexandra Gutsch Mirja Hälbig Iftekhar Hasan Peter Haug Katja Heinisch Boris Hirsch Florian Hoffmann Nils Torben Hollandt Oliver Holtemöller Dennis Hutschenreiter Sabrina Jeworrek Martina Kämpfe Onur Can Karabulut Aleksandr Kazakov Michael Koetter Boris Kozyrev David Krutzki Shasha Li Xiang Li Axel Lindner Melina Ludolph Lin Ma Filippo di Mauro Javier Miranda Sukanya Mukherjee Steffen Müller Theresa Neef Huyen Nguyen Felix Noth Patrick Nüß Madalina Patru Verena Plümpe Johanna Raith Alexander Reifschneider Sebastian Reinartz Lotte Rothschild Tommaso Santini Alessandro Sardone Benjamin Schoefer Hendrik Schub Christoph Schult Birgit Schultz Merih Sevilir Anna Solms Daniel Streitz Müge Süer Wiebke Szymczak Jatin Taneja Mirko Titze Lena Tonzer Mathias Trabandt Margarita Tsoutsoura Sochima Uzonwanne Jiamin Wang Simon Wiederhold Birte Winter Fabian Wöbbeking Shuo Xia Marie Young-Brun Götz Zeddies Anna Zherdeva Hua Zhou

106

IWH people

nations

research groups

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent

IWH founds a European centre for microdata research

Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties

New database on Europe's real estate markets

Solidarity with Ukraine

The Halle Spirit

What are you interested in?

Academics

Media

Politics

Career

Academics

Media

Politics

Career

Research Networks, Data and Policy Advice

Press Releases

10.04.2025 • 14/2025

In East Germany, as in the west, the economy is in crisis - Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2025 and new data for the East German economy

Abstract

10.04.2025 • 13/2025

Joint Economic Forecast 1/2025: Geopolitical turn intensifies crisis – structural reforms even more urgent

Abstract

08.04.2025 • 12/2025

IWH-Tarif-Check: Keine realen Netto-Tariflohnzuwächse für Beschäftigte im Öffentlichen Dienst

Abstract

08.04.2025 • 11/2025

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Weiterhin Höchststände bei Insolvenzzahlen, Industrie stark betroffen

Abstract

Media Centre

Facts and Figures

A Turning Point for the German Economy?

New Regulatory Framework in Europe

Share of Zombie Firms 2010-2014 by Country

Comparison of EFN Forecasts with Alternative Forecasts

Euro Area Inflation Dynamics and Possible Drivers (a)

Euro Area Inflation Dynamics and Possible Drivers (b)

Bank Levies Paid by German Banks

Aggregated Foreign Funding for Brazilian Banks (2007-2010)

Unemployment Rates by Nationality (2014)

Labour Market Situation for Non-EU Foreigners in Relation to the Number of Applications for Asylum (2014)

Employment Rates by Nationality and Gender (2014)

Average Work Performance of Employees Based on Meaning of Task (2014)

Publications

The (Heterogeneous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts

Abstract

COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic

Abstract

CEO Personality Traits and Compensation: Evidence from Investment Efficiency

Abstract

Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result

Abstract

Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Abstract

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Abstract

The Effects of the Iberian Exception Mechanism on Wholesale Electricity Prices and Consumer Inflation: A Synthetic-controls Approach

Abstract

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Abstract

Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Abstract

The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Abstract

The (Heterogeneous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts

Abstract

COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic

Abstract

CEO Personality Traits and Compensation: Evidence from Investment Efficiency

Abstract

Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result

Abstract

Step by Step ‒ A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts

Abstract

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Abstract

The Effects of the Iberian Exception Mechanism on Wholesale Electricity Prices and Consumer Inflation: A Synthetic-controls Approach

Abstract

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico