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Frosty prospects for the German economy

The German economy will continue to stagnate in winter 2024/2025. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by 0.2% in 2024 and to expand by 0.4% in 2025 (East Germany 0.5% each).

Call for Applications for IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics

We are looking for outstanding Master's graduates for the Doctoral Programme in Economics at IWH. Interested candidates can apply until 15 January 2025 for recruitment in autumn 2025. Further information on the programme on our website.

Apply online

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Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties

Globalisation has led to an increase in votes for the political fringes in Europe. A study by the Halle Institute is the first to show the long-term consequences of increased Chinese imports: Far-right and populist parties have benefited from the China shock.

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New database on Europe's real estate markets

Exclusively for non-commercial scientific purposes, the IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI) provides a comprehensive overview of residential property offers for sale and rent in 18 European countries.

Solidarity with Ukraine

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany draws consequences for academia.

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The Halle Spirit

We provide independent research on economic topics that aim to enrich society with facts and evidence-based insights that facilitate better economic decisions. We focus on growth and productivity. We promote young talents and work in flat hierarchies.

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Research Networks, Data and Policy Advice

Press Releases

12.12.2024 • 31/2024

Frosty prospects for the German economy

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Abstract

The German economy will continue to stagnate in winter 2024/2025. Industry is suffering from a loss of international competitiveness. For this reason and due to the unclear economic policy outlook, firms and consumers are holding back on spending, although incomes have increased recently. Consumer spending will only increase more strongly once the uncertainty subsides. According to the winter forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), gross domestic product in Germany is expected to fall by 0.2% in 2024 and to expand by 0.4% in 2025. In September, the IWH forecast had still assumed a zero growth in 2024 and a growth of 1.0% in 2025. In East Germany, gross domestic product will increase by 0.5% both this year and in 2025.

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10.12.2024 • 30/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten im November leicht rückläufig

Professor Dr Steffen Müller

Abstract

Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Analyse feststellt, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im November wieder unter den Höchstwert aus dem Oktober gefallen. Erste Frühindikatoren deuten auf einen erneuten Anstieg ab Februar hin.

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07.11.2024 • 29/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten bricht im Oktober den nächsten Rekord

Professor Dr Steffen Müller

Abstract

Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Analyse feststellt, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im Oktober sprunghaft auf 1 530 angestiegen. Das ist der höchste Oktoberwert seit 20 Jahren.

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10.10.2024 • 28/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten im September gestiegen, drittes Quartal 2024 erreicht damit Rekordwerte

Professor Dr Steffen Müller

Abstract

Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Analyse feststellt, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im September angestiegen. Im dritten Quartal 2024 lag die Zahl der Insolvenzen damit so hoch wie in keinem anderen Quartal seit Mitte 2010.

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Media Centre

Facts and Figures

Reales_BIP_Deutschland_12.12.24.JPG — The German economy will continue to stagnate in winter 2024/2025. According to the forecast of the IWH, gross domestic product in Germany is expected to fall by 0.2% in 2024 and to expand by 0.4% in 2024. In East Germany, gross domestic product will increase by 0.5% both this year and in 2025.

This figure shows the different pillars that form the basis of the new regulatory framework in Europe. The Single Rulebook applies to all 28 member states. The three pillars of the European Banking Union are obligatory for Euro Area countries and voluntary for the remaining EU member states. Source: Koetter, Michael; Krause, Thomas; Tonzer, Lena (2017): Delay determinants of European Banking Union implementation. IWH Discussion Papers 24/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

The graph shows the percentage share of firms that have been classified as zombies in a given year and country. Zombie firms are firms, that for at least two consecutive years have negative returns, negative investment, and debt servicing capacity (EBITDA/ financial debt) below 5 %. Source: Koetter, Michael; Setzer, Ralph; Storz, Manuela; Westphal, Andreas (2017): Do we want these two to tango? On zombie firms and stressed banks in Europe. IWH Discussion Papers 13/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

EU: European Commission, Economic Forecast, November 2017; IMF: World Economic Outlook, October 2017, ECB: December 2017 staff macroeconomic projections. OECD: Economic Outlook, November 2017; Consensus: Consensus Economics, Consensus Forecasts, December 2017. Source: EFN-European Forecasting Network (2017): EFN Report: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2018 and 2019.

This figure (a) shows headline inflation rates in the Euro area and in ten member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU). The possible inflation drivers may all have contributed to the low inflation rate in recent years. The series of survey- and market-based inflation expectations were obtained from Consensus Economics, Thomson Reuters and own calculations. For the remaining data sources it is referred to the data and estimation section. Source: Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Holtemöller, Oliver (2017): Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations. IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

This figure (b) shows unemployment rates in the Euro area and in ten member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU). The possible inflation drivers may all have contributed to the low inflation rate in recent years. The series of survey- and market-based inflation expectations were obtained from Consensus Economics, Thomson Reuters and own calculations. For the remaining data sources it is referred to the data and estimation section. Source: Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Holtemöller, Oliver (2017): Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations. IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

This figure shows the payments of the bank levy (in million euros) by German banks for the years 2011-2015, broken down by banking group. During the years 2011-2014, banks had to contribute to the national restructuring fund as specified in the Restructuring Fund Act. In 2015, banks contributions were for the first time calculated as specified in the Banking Resolution and Restructuring Directive. Source of Figure: Deutscher Bundestag Drucksache 18/5993, BB8/5993he 18 5 December 2015. Source: Buch, Claudia; Tonzer, Lena; Weigert, Benjamin (2017): Assessing the effects of regulatory bank levies. VOX CEPR's Policy Portal: Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists.

This figure shows the development of aggregated foreign funding for Brazilian banks between January 2007 and December 2010. The vertical line is set at September 2008, the month when the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a freeze in global interbank markets. Foreign funding is aggregated from the bank-level data in the baseline sample. The variable is reported in real 2013 US$ millions. Source: Noth, Felix; Ossandon Busch, Matias (2017): Banking globalization, local lending, and labor market effects: Micro-level evidence from Brazil. IWH Discussion Papers 7/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

The unemployment rate of EU nationals in most countries is slightly higher than that of domestic nationals; these rates are almost perfectly correlated for all member states. As the figure displays, the unemployment rate of citizens from non-EU member states is significantly higher than that of domestic nationals in almost all countries; the dispersion of the rates is also significantly greater. Source: Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel; Schmalzbauer, Andreas; Zeddies, Götz (2016): On the Distribution of Refugees in the EU. In: Intereconomics, Volume 51, July/August 2016, Number 4, pp. 220-228.

In fact, there is a positive correlation between the number of applications for asylum in recent years and the difference in the unemployment rates of domestic nationals and of citizens from non-EU member states (as shown in the figure at hand). This indicates that the marginal costs of integrating refugees do indeed increase as the number of refugees grows. Source: Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel; Schmalzbauer, Andreas; Zeddies, Götz (2016): On the Distribution of Refugees in the EU. In: Intereconomics, Volume 51, July/August 2016, Number 4, pp. 220-228.

Large differences between nationals and foreigners from non-EU countries can also be observed when it comes to the employment rate. In most countries, the employment rate is considerably lower for non-EU citizens than for domestic nationals; this is the case especially for women, but it applies to men as well. While the employment rate of male non-EU foreigners increases at least somewhat with the employment rate of male domestic nationals, the employment rate of female non-EU foreigners is largely disconnected from the domestic rate (see figure above). Source: Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel; Schmalzbauer, Andreas; Zeddies, Götz (2016): On the Distribution of Refugees in the EU. In: Intereconomics, Volume 51, July/August 2016, Number 4, pp. 220-228.

Figure_8_Average_work_performance_corresponding_to_meaning_of_task.jpg — The figure demonstrates that the average number of responses differs between the three treatment groups "Original Meaning", "No Meaning" and "Alternative Meaning". It shows the average work performance of workers fulfilling the same task with the same reward but with different information about the usefulness or meaning of their work done before. Since some workers did not respond at first and only participated in the experiment as latecomers after they were sent further invitations, these were considered as a special group. Therefore, two different groups were created "Immediate" and "Pooled" and were considered separately. In essence, the additional "Pooled" group consists of latecomers grouped together with the employees that immediately participated in the experiment. Source: Chadi, Adrian; Jeworrek, Sabrina; Mertins, Vanessa (2016): When the Meaning of Work Has Disappeared: Experimental Evidence on Employees’ Performance and Emotions. Management Science 63(6): 1696-1707.

Publications

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Henning Hermes Philipp Lergetporer Frauke Peter Simon Wiederhold

in: Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

Abstract

Why are children with lower socioeconomic status (SES) substantially less likely to be enrolled in child care? We study whether barriers in the application process work against lower-SES children — the group known to benefit strongest from child care enrollment. In an RCT in Germany with highly subsidized child care (N = 607), we offer treated families information and personal assistance for applications. We find substantial, equity-enhancing effects of the treatment, closing half of the large SES gap in child care enrollment. Increased enrollment for lower-SES families is likely driven by altered application knowledge and behavior. We discuss scalability of our intervention and derive policy implications for the design of universal child care programs.

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Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: World Economy, forthcoming

Abstract

The Roy-Borjas model predicts that international migrants are less educated than nonmigrants because the returns to education are generally higher in developing (migrant-sending) than in developed (migrant-receiving) countries. However, empirical evidence often shows the opposite. Using the case of Mexico-U.S. migration, we show that this inconsistency between predictions and empirical evidence can be resolved when the human capital of migrants is assessed using a two-dimensional measure of occupational skills rather than by educational attainment. Thus, focusing on a single skill dimension when investigating migrant selection can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying economic incentives and behavioral models of migration.

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Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Danny McGowan Huyen Nguyen Klaus Schaeck

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

We study how deposit competition affects a bank's decision to securitize mortgages. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the U.S. as a source of competition, we find a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize mortgage loans. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in deposit costs and corresponding reductions in banks' deposit holdings. Our results are strongest among banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight a hitherto undocumented and unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.

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The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Nils Torben Hollandt Steffen Müller

in: Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming

Abstract

Wage mobility reduces the persistence of wage inequality. We develop a framework to quantify the contribution of employer-to-employer movers to aggregate wage mobility. Using three decades of German social security data, we find that inequality increased while aggregate wage mobility decreased. Employer-to-employer movers exhibit higher wage mobility, mainly due to changes in employer wage premia at job change. The massive structural changes following German unification temporarily led to a high number of movers, which in turn boosted aggregate wage mobility. Wage mobility is much lower at the bottom of the wage distribution, and the decline in aggregate wage mobility since the 1980s is concentrated there. The overall decline can be mostly attributed to a reduction in wage mobility per mover, which is due to a compositional shift toward lower-wage movers.

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Church Membership and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season

Iftekhar Hasan Stefano Manfredonia Felix Noth

in: Economic Journal, forthcoming

Abstract

This paper investigates the critical role of church membership in the process of economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. We document a significant adverse treatment effect of the 2005 hurricane season in the Southeastern United States on establishment-level productivity. However, we find that establishments in counties with higher rates of church membership saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005–10. We also show that church membership is correlated with post-disaster entrepreneurship activities and population growth.

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Social Connections and Information Leakage: Evidence from Target Stock Price Run-up in Takeovers

Iftekhar Hasan Lin Tong An Yan

in: Journal of Financial Research, forthcoming

Abstract

Does information leakage in a target's social networks increase its stock price prior to a merger announcement? Evidence reveals that a target with more social connections indeed experiences a higher pre-announcement price run-up. This effect does not exist during or after the merger announcement, or in windows ending two months before the announcement. It is more pronounced among targets with severe asymmetric information, and weaker when the information about the upcoming merger is publicly available prior to the announcement. It is also weaker in expedited deals such as tender offers.

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Aggregate Dynamics with Sectoral Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Aggregate Real Shocks

Alessandro Flamini Iftekhar Hasan

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between heterogeneity in sectoral price stickiness and the response of the economy to aggregate real shocks. We show that sectoral heterogeneity reduces inflation persistence for a constant average duration of price spells, and that inflation persistence can fall despite duration increases associated with increases in heterogeneity. We also find that sectoral heterogeneity reduces the persistence and volatility of interest rate and output gap for a constant price spells duration, while the qualitative impact on inflation volatility tends to be positive. A relevant policy implication is that neglecting price stickiness heterogeneity can impair the economic dynamics assessment.

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Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labour Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin

Preston Mui Benjamin Schoefer

in: Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming

Abstract

We measure desired labour supply at the extensive (employment) margin in two representative surveys of the U.S. and German populations. We elicit reservation raises: the percent wage change that renders a given individual indifferent between employment and nonemployment. It is equal to her reservation wage divided by her actual, or potential, wage. The reservation raise distribution is the nonparametric aggregate labour supply curve. Locally, the curve exhibits large short-run elasticities above 3, consistent with business cycle evidence. For larger upward shifts, arc elasticities shrink towards 0.5, consistent with quasi-experimental evidence from tax holidays. Existing models fail to match this nonconstant, asymmetric curve.

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The Corporate Investment Benefits of Mutual Fund Dual Holdings

Rex Wang Renjie Patrick Verwijmeren Shuo Xia

in: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming

Abstract

Mutual fund families increasingly hold bonds and stocks from the same firm. We present evidence that dual ownership allows firms to increase valuable investments and refinance by issuing bonds with lower yields and fewer restrictive covenants, especially when firms face financial distress. Dual holders also prevent overinvestment by firms with entrenched managers. Overall, our results suggest that mutual fund families internalize the agency conflicts of their portfolio companies, highlighting the positive governance externalities of intra-family cooperation.

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Disentangling Stock Return Synchronicity From the Auditor's Perspective

Iftekhar Hasan Joseph A. Micale Qiang Wu

in: Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, forthcoming

Abstract

This paper investigates a firm's stock return asynchronicity through the auditor's perspective to distinguish whether this asynchronicity can proxy for the company's firm-specific information or the quality of its information environment. We find a significant and positive association between asynchronicity and audit fees after controlling for auditor quality and other factors that affect audit fees, suggesting that stock return asynchronicity is more likely to capture a company's firm-specific information than its information environment. We also find that asynchronous firms are more likely to receive adverse opinions on their internal controls over financial reporting, but are associated with lower costs of capital and auditor litigation, providing further evidence in support of the firm-specific information argument. Asynchronicity's positive association with audit fees is driven by firms with higher accounting reporting complexity, suggesting stock return asynchronicity captures a firm's complexity, resulting in more significant efforts by the auditor.

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Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Henning Hermes Philipp Lergetporer Frauke Peter Simon Wiederhold

in: Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: World Economy, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Danny McGowan Huyen Nguyen Klaus Schaeck

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Nils Torben Hollandt Steffen Müller

in: Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Church Membership and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season

Iftekhar Hasan Stefano Manfredonia Felix Noth

in: Economic Journal, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Social Connections and Information Leakage: Evidence from Target Stock Price Run-up in Takeovers

Iftekhar Hasan Lin Tong An Yan

in: Journal of Financial Research, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Aggregate Dynamics with Sectoral Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Aggregate Real Shocks

Alessandro Flamini Iftekhar Hasan

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labour Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin

Preston Mui Benjamin Schoefer

in: Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Corporate Investment Benefits of Mutual Fund Dual Holdings

Rex Wang Renjie Patrick Verwijmeren Shuo Xia

in: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Disentangling Stock Return Synchronicity From the Auditor's Perspective

Iftekhar Hasan Joseph A. Micale Qiang Wu

in: Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Facts and Figures
Publications

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Henning Hermes Philipp Lergetporer Frauke Peter Simon Wiederhold

in: Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: World Economy, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Danny McGowan Huyen Nguyen Klaus Schaeck

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Nils Torben Hollandt Steffen Müller

in: Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Church Membership and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season

Iftekhar Hasan Stefano Manfredonia Felix Noth

in: Economic Journal, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Social Connections and Information Leakage: Evidence from Target Stock Price Run-up in Takeovers

Iftekhar Hasan Lin Tong An Yan

in: Journal of Financial Research, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Aggregate Dynamics with Sectoral Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Aggregate Real Shocks

Alessandro Flamini Iftekhar Hasan

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labour Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin

Preston Mui Benjamin Schoefer

in: Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Corporate Investment Benefits of Mutual Fund Dual Holdings

Rex Wang Renjie Patrick Verwijmeren Shuo Xia

in: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Disentangling Stock Return Synchronicity From the Auditor's Perspective

Iftekhar Hasan Joseph A. Micale Qiang Wu

in: Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Henning Hermes Philipp Lergetporer Frauke Peter Simon Wiederhold

in: Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: World Economy, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Danny McGowan Huyen Nguyen Klaus Schaeck

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Nils Torben Hollandt Steffen Müller

in: Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Church Membership and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season

Iftekhar Hasan Stefano Manfredonia Felix Noth

in: Economic Journal, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Social Connections and Information Leakage: Evidence from Target Stock Price Run-up in Takeovers

Iftekhar Hasan Lin Tong An Yan

in: Journal of Financial Research, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Aggregate Dynamics with Sectoral Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Aggregate Real Shocks

Alessandro Flamini Iftekhar Hasan

in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labour Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin

Preston Mui Benjamin Schoefer

in: Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

The Corporate Investment Benefits of Mutual Fund Dual Holdings

Rex Wang Renjie Patrick Verwijmeren Shuo Xia

in: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

Disentangling Stock Return Synchronicity From the Auditor's Perspective

Iftekhar Hasan Joseph A. Micale Qiang Wu

in: Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, forthcoming

Abstract

read publication

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research groups

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

Frosty prospects for the German economy

Call for Applications for IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics

Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties

New database on Europe's real estate markets

Solidarity with Ukraine

The Halle Spirit

What are you interested in?

Academics

Media

Politics

Career

Academics

Media

Politics

Career

Research Networks, Data and Policy Advice

Press Releases

12.12.2024 • 31/2024

Frosty prospects for the German economy

Abstract

10.12.2024 • 30/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten im November leicht rückläufig

Abstract

07.11.2024 • 29/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten bricht im Oktober den nächsten Rekord

Abstract

10.10.2024 • 28/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Zahl der Firmenpleiten im September gestiegen, drittes Quartal 2024 erreicht damit Rekordwerte

Abstract

Media Centre

Facts and Figures

Frosty prospects for the German economy

New Regulatory Framework in Europe

Share of Zombie Firms 2010-2014 by Country

Comparison of EFN Forecasts with Alternative Forecasts

Euro Area Inflation Dynamics and Possible Drivers (a)

Euro Area Inflation Dynamics and Possible Drivers (b)

Bank Levies Paid by German Banks

Aggregated Foreign Funding for Brazilian Banks (2007-2010)

Unemployment Rates by Nationality (2014)

Labour Market Situation for Non-EU Foreigners in Relation to the Number of Applications for Asylum (2014)

Employment Rates by Nationality and Gender (2014)

Average Work Performance of Employees Based on Meaning of Task (2014)

Publications

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Abstract

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Abstract

Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Abstract

The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Abstract

Church Membership and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season

Abstract

Social Connections and Information Leakage: Evidence from Target Stock Price Run-up in Takeovers

Abstract

Aggregate Dynamics with Sectoral Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Aggregate Real Shocks

Abstract

Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labour Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin

Abstract

The Corporate Investment Benefits of Mutual Fund Dual Holdings

Abstract

Disentangling Stock Return Synchronicity From the Auditor's Perspective

Abstract

Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Abstract

Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Abstract

Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

Abstract

The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility

Abstract

Church Membership and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season

Abstract

Social Connections and Information Leakage: Evidence from Target Stock Price Run-up in Takeovers

Abstract

Aggregate Dynamics with Sectoral Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Aggregate Real Shocks

Abstract

Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labour Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin