Katrina und weitere Wirbelstürme richteten im Sommer 2005 verheerende Schäden im Südosten der USA an. Eine Studie des Leibniz-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) zeigt: In den Jahren nach der Katastrophe erzielten Betriebe in Gebieten mit einer hohen Kirchenmitgliedsrate eine signifikant höhere Leistung.
Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Analyse feststellt, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im Juli deutlich angestiegen. Die Zahl der betroffenen Jobs ging zurück.
Der Wirtschaftsabschwung in Sachsen-Anhalt ist offenbar noch nicht zu Ende. In einer gemeinsamen Umfrage von Creditreform und Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) beurteilten die mittelständischen Unternehmen die Geschäftslage im 1. Halbjahr 2025 schlechter als im Vorjahr. 410 Unternehmen aus Sachsen-Anhalt haben sich an der Befragung beteiligt.
Seit über zwei Jahren schrumpft die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Sachsen-Anhalt. Die Hoffnungen auf eine Trendwende wurden zuletzt immer wieder enttäuscht. Kann der Negativtrend 2025 endlich gestoppt werden? Wie sind aktuell die Rahmenbedingungen für die mittelständischen Unternehmen im Land? Und wie bewerten sie Geschäftslage und Standort?
Die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland liegt laut IWH-Insolvenztrend im Juli bei 1 588. Das sind 12% mehr als im Vormonat, 13% mehr als im Juli 2024 und 64% mehr als in einem durchschnittlichen Juli der Jahre 2016 bis 2019, also vor der Corona-Pandemie. Die Zahl der Unternehmensinsolvenzen erreichte damit im Juli einen Wert, der – abgesehen vom Rekordmonat April 2025 – so hoch war wie seit 20 Jahren nicht mehr (Stand: 1. August 2025).
Laut IWH-Insolvenztrend waren im Juli in den größten 10% der insolventen Unternehmen knapp 10 000 Arbeitsplätze betroffen. Damit liegt die Zahl der betroffenen Beschäftigten deutlich unter dem Niveau von Juni (-39%), jedoch etwa auf dem Niveau von Juli 2024 und dem Juli-Durchschnitt der Vor-Corona-Jahre 2016 bis 2019 (Stand: 1. August 2025).
Heute gehen die Deutschen im Schnitt zwei Jahre später in Rente als vor zwanzig Jahren, leben aber auch zwei Jahre länger. Seit einigen Jahren steigt zudem die Zahl der Neurentner. Quellen: Statistisches Bundesamt; Berechnungen und Darstellung des IWH.
Die Abbildung zeigt eine Projektion der Ausgaben für Beamtenpensionen bis zum Jahr 2080. Dargestellt ist (für zwei verschiedene Szenarien S1 und S2) der Anteil dieser Ausgaben an den Steuereinnahmen für Bund, Länder und Gemeinden in %. Dieser wird sich nicht dramatisch erhöhen – vorausgesetzt, dass mit rückläufiger Bevölkerung auch die Anzahl der Beamten reduziert wird. Quellen: Statistisches Bundesamt; Bundesministerium der Finanzen; Berechnungen und Darstellung des IWH.
Anzahl der Unternehmensgründungen pro 100 000 Einwohner (EW) für Ost- und Westdeutschland zwischen 1995 und 2018. Bis zum Jahr 2018 sank die Rate in Ost- wie in Westdeutschland um mehr als 100 Neugründungen pro 100 000 Einwohner. Quelle: Diegmann, André: Aktuelle Trends: Entwicklung der Firmengründungen in Deutschland, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel, Jg. 26 (1), 2020, 4.
Veränderung der Unternehmensgründungen pro 100 000 Einwohner zwischen 2000 und 2018. Je dunkler die Farbe, desto größer der Rückgang. Quelle: Diegmann, André: Aktuelle Trends: Entwicklung der Firmengründungen in Deutschland, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel, Jg. 26 (1), 2020, 4.
Im Krisenjahr 2009 lag die Nichtbesetzungsquote lediglich bei etwa 16%. Bis zum Jahr 2018 hat sie sich deutlich mehr als verdoppelt. Dabei sind Höhe und Entwicklung der Nichtbesetzungsquote in Ostdeutschland und Westdeutschland ähnlich. Quelle: Steffen Müller, Aktuelle Trends: Fachkräftemangel hat in den letzten zehn Jahren in Ost und West stark zugenommen, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel — Jg. 25 (3), 2019, 48.
Beim Vergleich der Wirtschaftskraft deutscher Regionen vor den politischen Umbrüchen des 20. Jahrhunderts zeigt sich: Aus historischer Sicht sehen manche Tendenzen, etwa der Berlin-Boom und die höhere Wachstumsdynamik in Sachsen, wie eine Normalisierung aus, die sich mit einiger Wahrscheinlichkeit auch fortsetzen dürfte. Quelle: Axel Lindner: Zur Wirtschaftskraft deutscher Regionen aus langfristiger Perspektive: Alte Muster werden in Ostdeutschland langsam wieder sichtbar, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel — Jg. 25 (3), 2019, 49.
In Westdeutschland kam es in denjenigen Betrieben, die die vergleichsweise geringsten Löhne zahlen (hier 10. Perzentil), im gesamten Betrachtungszeitraum zu Lohneinbußen. Am aktuellen Rand liegen die Einbußen bei etwa 2% im Vergleich zu 1997, während die Löhne am Median leicht gestiegen sind. In Ostdeutschland verlief die Entwicklung vor allem seit 2013 deutlich positiver. Am aktuellen Rand sind im Osten für alle Perzentile deutliche Lohnzuwächse zu beobachten, am Median etwa 10%.
Ein Investment von 1000 Euro, angelegt am 1. Juli 1988, dem Eröffnungstag des DAX, wäre heute über 6000 Euro wert, hätte sich also versechsfacht. Der DAX hat demnachlangfristig alle anderen Anlage- und Sparoptionen übertroffen, die bei deutschen Haushalten üblich sind (Bundesanleihen, Wohnimmobilien, Sparkonten). Quelle: Gropp, Reint E.: Kommentar: 30 Jahre DAX, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel, Jg. 24 (3), 2018.
Belgien, Litauen, Polen und Slowenien haben viel Zeit bis zur Umsetzung der EU-Richtlinien in nationales Recht verstreichen lassen. Deutschland und Österreich haben die Richtlinien am schnellsten übernommen. Quelle: Koetter, Michael; Krause, Thomas; Tonzer, Lena: "Welche Faktoren verzögern die Umsetzung der Bankenunion?", in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel, Jg. 24 (1), 2018.
1/3: Im Szenario "Inflationsausgleich" wird für jede Alterskohorte, die aus dem Erwerbsleben ausscheidet, das Rentenniveau bei 48,1% des zuletzt empfangenen Arbeitsentgelts fixiert und bleibt dann real konstant, die Rentenbezüge nehmen also mit der Inflationsrate zu. Die Rentenhöhe kann hierdurch stabilisiert werden. Alle zukünftigen Generationen erhalten eine vergleichbare Absicherung. Quelle: Holtemöller, Oliver; Zeddies, Götz: Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag. IWH Online 2/2017. Halle (Saale) 2017.
2/3: Eine Kopplung der laufenden Renten an die Verbraucherpreise kann ein Element zur Dämpfung des Ausgabenanstiegs bei der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung infolge des demographischen Wandels sein, da die Renten nicht mehr so stark wie die Löhne steigen, sondern nur noch die Inflation ausgleichen. Quelle: Holtemöller, Oliver; Zeddies, Götz: Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag. IWH Online 2/2017. Halle (Saale) 2017.
3/3: Der erforderliche Beitragssatz in der Rentenversicherung im Szenario „Inflationsausgleich“ fällt deutlich niedriger aus und sinkt ab 2035 sogar wieder, während er im Szenario „Status quo“ weiter ansteigt. Durch den Inflationsausgleich kann also ein stabiles Rentenniveau bei Renteneintritt gewährleistet und gleichzeitig eine Dämpfung der Rentenausgaben erreicht werden, wenn die Bevölkerung altert. Quelle: Holtemöller, Oliver; Zeddies, Götz: Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag. IWH Online 2/2017. Halle (Saale) 2017.
in: Journal of Finance, im Erscheinen
<p>We examine how firms adapt their organization when they go public. To conform with the requirements of public capital markets, we expect IPO firms to become more organized, making the firm more accountable and its human capital more easily replaceable. We find that IPO firms transform into a more hierarchical organization with smaller departments. Managerial oversight increases. Organizational functions dedicated to accounting, finance, information and communication, and human resources become much more prominent. Employee turnover is sizeable and directly related to changes in hierarchical layers. New hires are better educated, but younger and less experienced than incumbents, which reflects the staffing needs of a more hierarchical organization. Wage inequality increases as firms become more hierarchical. Overall, going public is associated with a comprehensive transformation of the firm's organization which becomes geared towards efficiently operating a public firm.</p>
in: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, im Erscheinen
<p>We find that a firm’s stock price drops when its compensation peer firm announces a severe say-on-pay voting failure. This price drop causes a reduction in the focal firm CEO’s pay in the following period. The effect on CEO pay is stronger when the board of directors is more powerful, when the proxy advisor holds a negative view of the CEO’s pay, and when the hired compensation consultant is less reputable. Directors who cut their CEO’s pay following the price drop receive more voting support from investors than other directors. Our findings show that the peer firm’s voting failure induces a market-feedback effect for focal firm directors.</p>
in: Management Science, im Erscheinen
<p>The effects of private equity buyouts on employment, productivity, and job reallocation vary tremendously with macroeconomic and credit conditions, across private equity groups, and by type of buyout. We reach this conclusion by examining the most extensive database of U.S. buyouts ever compiled, encompassing thousands of buyout targets from 1980 to 2013 and millions of control firms. Employment shrinks 12% over two years after buyouts of publicly listed firms—on average, and relative to control firms—but expands 15% after buyouts of privately held firms. Postbuyout productivity gains at target firms are large on average and much larger yet for deals executed amid tight credit conditions. A postbuyout tightening of credit conditions or slowing of gross domestic product growth curtails employment growth and intrafirm job reallocation at target firms. We also show that buyout effects differ across the private equity groups that sponsor buyouts, and these differences persist over time at the group level. Rapid upscaling in deal flow at the group level brings lower employment growth at target firms. We relate these findings to theories of private equity that highlight agency problems at portfolio firms and within the private equity industry itself.</p>
in: Political Research Quarterly, im Erscheinen
<p>How durable are the political accountability effects of the worst pandemic in a century? We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through its “high” and “low” phases in the Czech Republic. Uniquely, we ask about the effects of both the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during “high” pandemic phases without higher support for non-democratic alternatives. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.</p>
in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, im Erscheinen
<p>We examine the effects of the big five personalities of CEOs (openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism) on their annual compensation. We hand-collect the tweets of S&P 1500 CEOs and use IBM's Watson Personality Insights to measure their personalities. CEOs with high ratings of agreeableness and conscientiousness get more compensation. We further find that the firms with these CEOs outperform their peers due to better investment efficiency. Firms are willing to pay higher compensation for talent, especially for firms with better operations, located in states with higher labor unionization, or facing higher competition in the product market. Overall, CEO personality is a valid predictor of CEOs' compensation.</p>
in: Review of Economics and Statistics, im Erscheinen
<p>We show an equivalence result in the standard representative agent New Keynesian model after demand, wage markup and correlated price markup and TFP shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case- flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence result arises if the price and wage Phillips curves' slopes are identical and generalizes to any pair of price and wage Phillips curve slopes such that their sum and product are identical. Nevertheless, the cyclical implications for profits and wages are substantially different. We discuss how the equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale in production. Lastly, we point to an econometric identification problem raised by our equivalence result and discuss possible solutions thereof.</p>
in: Applied Economic Letters, im Erscheinen
<p>This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation.</p>
in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, im Erscheinen
<p>We study how deposit competition affects a bank's decision to securitize mortgages. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the U.S. as a source of competition, we find a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize mortgage loans. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in deposit costs and corresponding reductions in banks' deposit holdings. Our results are strongest among banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight a hitherto undocumented and unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.</p>
in: Journal of Financial Research, im Erscheinen
<p>This paper analyses whether Christian moralities and rules formed differently by Catholics and Protestants impact the likelihood of households to become overindebted. We find that over-indebtedness is lower in regions in which Catholics outweigh Protestants, indicating that Catholics‘ forgiveness culture and a stricter enforcement of rules by Protestants serve as explanations for our results. Our results provide evidence that religion affects the financial situations of individuals and show that even 500 years after the split between Catholics and Protestants, the differences in the mind-sets of both denominations play an important role for situations of severe financial conditions.</p>
in: Applied Economic Letters, im Erscheinen
<p>This study investigates the impact of inaccurate assumptions on economic forecast precision. We construct a new dataset comprising an unbalanced panel of annual German GDP forecasts from various institutions, taking into account their underlying assumptions. We explicitly control for different forecast horizons to reflect the information available at the time of release. Our analysis reveals that approximately 75% of the variation in squared forecast errors can be attributed to the variation in squared errors of the initial assumptions. This finding emphasizes the importance of accurate assumptions in economic forecasting and suggests that forecasters should transparently disclose their assumptions to enhance the usefulness of their forecasts in shaping effective policy recommendations.</p>
in: Journal of Finance, im Erscheinen
<p>We examine how firms adapt their organization when they go public. To conform with the requirements of public capital markets, we expect IPO firms to become more organized, making the firm more accountable and its human capital more easily replaceable. We find that IPO firms transform into a more hierarchical organization with smaller departments. Managerial oversight increases. Organizational functions dedicated to accounting, finance, information and communication, and human resources become much more prominent. Employee turnover is sizeable and directly related to changes in hierarchical layers. New hires are better educated, but younger and less experienced than incumbents, which reflects the staffing needs of a more hierarchical organization. Wage inequality increases as firms become more hierarchical. Overall, going public is associated with a comprehensive transformation of the firm's organization which becomes geared towards efficiently operating a public firm.</p>
in: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, im Erscheinen
<p>We find that a firm’s stock price drops when its compensation peer firm announces a severe say-on-pay voting failure. This price drop causes a reduction in the focal firm CEO’s pay in the following period. The effect on CEO pay is stronger when the board of directors is more powerful, when the proxy advisor holds a negative view of the CEO’s pay, and when the hired compensation consultant is less reputable. Directors who cut their CEO’s pay following the price drop receive more voting support from investors than other directors. Our findings show that the peer firm’s voting failure induces a market-feedback effect for focal firm directors.</p>
in: Management Science, im Erscheinen
<p>The effects of private equity buyouts on employment, productivity, and job reallocation vary tremendously with macroeconomic and credit conditions, across private equity groups, and by type of buyout. We reach this conclusion by examining the most extensive database of U.S. buyouts ever compiled, encompassing thousands of buyout targets from 1980 to 2013 and millions of control firms. Employment shrinks 12% over two years after buyouts of publicly listed firms—on average, and relative to control firms—but expands 15% after buyouts of privately held firms. Postbuyout productivity gains at target firms are large on average and much larger yet for deals executed amid tight credit conditions. A postbuyout tightening of credit conditions or slowing of gross domestic product growth curtails employment growth and intrafirm job reallocation at target firms. We also show that buyout effects differ across the private equity groups that sponsor buyouts, and these differences persist over time at the group level. Rapid upscaling in deal flow at the group level brings lower employment growth at target firms. We relate these findings to theories of private equity that highlight agency problems at portfolio firms and within the private equity industry itself.</p>
in: Political Research Quarterly, im Erscheinen
<p>How durable are the political accountability effects of the worst pandemic in a century? We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through its “high” and “low” phases in the Czech Republic. Uniquely, we ask about the effects of both the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during “high” pandemic phases without higher support for non-democratic alternatives. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.</p>
in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, im Erscheinen
<p>We examine the effects of the big five personalities of CEOs (openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism) on their annual compensation. We hand-collect the tweets of S&P 1500 CEOs and use IBM's Watson Personality Insights to measure their personalities. CEOs with high ratings of agreeableness and conscientiousness get more compensation. We further find that the firms with these CEOs outperform their peers due to better investment efficiency. Firms are willing to pay higher compensation for talent, especially for firms with better operations, located in states with higher labor unionization, or facing higher competition in the product market. Overall, CEO personality is a valid predictor of CEOs' compensation.</p>
in: Review of Economics and Statistics, im Erscheinen
<p>We show an equivalence result in the standard representative agent New Keynesian model after demand, wage markup and correlated price markup and TFP shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case- flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence result arises if the price and wage Phillips curves' slopes are identical and generalizes to any pair of price and wage Phillips curve slopes such that their sum and product are identical. Nevertheless, the cyclical implications for profits and wages are substantially different. We discuss how the equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale in production. Lastly, we point to an econometric identification problem raised by our equivalence result and discuss possible solutions thereof.</p>
in: Applied Economic Letters, im Erscheinen
<p>This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation.</p>
in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, im Erscheinen
<p>We study how deposit competition affects a bank's decision to securitize mortgages. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the U.S. as a source of competition, we find a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize mortgage loans. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in deposit costs and corresponding reductions in banks' deposit holdings. Our results are strongest among banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight a hitherto undocumented and unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.</p>
in: Journal of Financial Research, im Erscheinen
<p>This paper analyses whether Christian moralities and rules formed differently by Catholics and Protestants impact the likelihood of households to become overindebted. We find that over-indebtedness is lower in regions in which Catholics outweigh Protestants, indicating that Catholics‘ forgiveness culture and a stricter enforcement of rules by Protestants serve as explanations for our results. Our results provide evidence that religion affects the financial situations of individuals and show that even 500 years after the split between Catholics and Protestants, the differences in the mind-sets of both denominations play an important role for situations of severe financial conditions.</p>
in: Applied Economic Letters, im Erscheinen
<p>This study investigates the impact of inaccurate assumptions on economic forecast precision. We construct a new dataset comprising an unbalanced panel of annual German GDP forecasts from various institutions, taking into account their underlying assumptions. We explicitly control for different forecast horizons to reflect the information available at the time of release. Our analysis reveals that approximately 75% of the variation in squared forecast errors can be attributed to the variation in squared errors of the initial assumptions. This finding emphasizes the importance of accurate assumptions in economic forecasting and suggests that forecasters should transparently disclose their assumptions to enhance the usefulness of their forecasts in shaping effective policy recommendations.</p>
Die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland liegt laut IWH-Insolvenztrend im Juli bei 1 588. Das sind 12% mehr als im Vormonat, 13% mehr als im Juli 2024 und 64% mehr als in einem durchschnittlichen Juli der Jahre 2016 bis 2019, also vor der Corona-Pandemie. Die Zahl der Unternehmensinsolvenzen erreichte damit im Juli einen Wert, der – abgesehen vom Rekordmonat April 2025 – so hoch war wie seit 20 Jahren nicht mehr (Stand: 1. August 2025).
Laut IWH-Insolvenztrend waren im Juli in den größten 10% der insolventen Unternehmen knapp 10 000 Arbeitsplätze betroffen. Damit liegt die Zahl der betroffenen Beschäftigten deutlich unter dem Niveau von Juni (-39%), jedoch etwa auf dem Niveau von Juli 2024 und dem Juli-Durchschnitt der Vor-Corona-Jahre 2016 bis 2019 (Stand: 1. August 2025).
Heute gehen die Deutschen im Schnitt zwei Jahre später in Rente als vor zwanzig Jahren, leben aber auch zwei Jahre länger. Seit einigen Jahren steigt zudem die Zahl der Neurentner. Quellen: Statistisches Bundesamt; Berechnungen und Darstellung des IWH.
Die Abbildung zeigt eine Projektion der Ausgaben für Beamtenpensionen bis zum Jahr 2080. Dargestellt ist (für zwei verschiedene Szenarien S1 und S2) der Anteil dieser Ausgaben an den Steuereinnahmen für Bund, Länder und Gemeinden in %. Dieser wird sich nicht dramatisch erhöhen – vorausgesetzt, dass mit rückläufiger Bevölkerung auch die Anzahl der Beamten reduziert wird. Quellen: Statistisches Bundesamt; Bundesministerium der Finanzen; Berechnungen und Darstellung des IWH.
Anzahl der Unternehmensgründungen pro 100 000 Einwohner (EW) für Ost- und Westdeutschland zwischen 1995 und 2018. Bis zum Jahr 2018 sank die Rate in Ost- wie in Westdeutschland um mehr als 100 Neugründungen pro 100 000 Einwohner. Quelle: Diegmann, André: Aktuelle Trends: Entwicklung der Firmengründungen in Deutschland, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel, Jg. 26 (1), 2020, 4.
Veränderung der Unternehmensgründungen pro 100 000 Einwohner zwischen 2000 und 2018. Je dunkler die Farbe, desto größer der Rückgang. Quelle: Diegmann, André: Aktuelle Trends: Entwicklung der Firmengründungen in Deutschland, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel, Jg. 26 (1), 2020, 4.
Im Krisenjahr 2009 lag die Nichtbesetzungsquote lediglich bei etwa 16%. Bis zum Jahr 2018 hat sie sich deutlich mehr als verdoppelt. Dabei sind Höhe und Entwicklung der Nichtbesetzungsquote in Ostdeutschland und Westdeutschland ähnlich. Quelle: Steffen Müller, Aktuelle Trends: Fachkräftemangel hat in den letzten zehn Jahren in Ost und West stark zugenommen, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel — Jg. 25 (3), 2019, 48.
Beim Vergleich der Wirtschaftskraft deutscher Regionen vor den politischen Umbrüchen des 20. Jahrhunderts zeigt sich: Aus historischer Sicht sehen manche Tendenzen, etwa der Berlin-Boom und die höhere Wachstumsdynamik in Sachsen, wie eine Normalisierung aus, die sich mit einiger Wahrscheinlichkeit auch fortsetzen dürfte. Quelle: Axel Lindner: Zur Wirtschaftskraft deutscher Regionen aus langfristiger Perspektive: Alte Muster werden in Ostdeutschland langsam wieder sichtbar, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel — Jg. 25 (3), 2019, 49.
In Westdeutschland kam es in denjenigen Betrieben, die die vergleichsweise geringsten Löhne zahlen (hier 10. Perzentil), im gesamten Betrachtungszeitraum zu Lohneinbußen. Am aktuellen Rand liegen die Einbußen bei etwa 2% im Vergleich zu 1997, während die Löhne am Median leicht gestiegen sind. In Ostdeutschland verlief die Entwicklung vor allem seit 2013 deutlich positiver. Am aktuellen Rand sind im Osten für alle Perzentile deutliche Lohnzuwächse zu beobachten, am Median etwa 10%.
Ein Investment von 1000 Euro, angelegt am 1. Juli 1988, dem Eröffnungstag des DAX, wäre heute über 6000 Euro wert, hätte sich also versechsfacht. Der DAX hat demnachlangfristig alle anderen Anlage- und Sparoptionen übertroffen, die bei deutschen Haushalten üblich sind (Bundesanleihen, Wohnimmobilien, Sparkonten). Quelle: Gropp, Reint E.: Kommentar: 30 Jahre DAX, in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel, Jg. 24 (3), 2018.
Belgien, Litauen, Polen und Slowenien haben viel Zeit bis zur Umsetzung der EU-Richtlinien in nationales Recht verstreichen lassen. Deutschland und Österreich haben die Richtlinien am schnellsten übernommen. Quelle: Koetter, Michael; Krause, Thomas; Tonzer, Lena: "Welche Faktoren verzögern die Umsetzung der Bankenunion?", in: IWH, Wirtschaft im Wandel, Jg. 24 (1), 2018.
1/3: Im Szenario "Inflationsausgleich" wird für jede Alterskohorte, die aus dem Erwerbsleben ausscheidet, das Rentenniveau bei 48,1% des zuletzt empfangenen Arbeitsentgelts fixiert und bleibt dann real konstant, die Rentenbezüge nehmen also mit der Inflationsrate zu. Die Rentenhöhe kann hierdurch stabilisiert werden. Alle zukünftigen Generationen erhalten eine vergleichbare Absicherung. Quelle: Holtemöller, Oliver; Zeddies, Götz: Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag. IWH Online 2/2017. Halle (Saale) 2017.
2/3: Eine Kopplung der laufenden Renten an die Verbraucherpreise kann ein Element zur Dämpfung des Ausgabenanstiegs bei der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung infolge des demographischen Wandels sein, da die Renten nicht mehr so stark wie die Löhne steigen, sondern nur noch die Inflation ausgleichen. Quelle: Holtemöller, Oliver; Zeddies, Götz: Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag. IWH Online 2/2017. Halle (Saale) 2017.
3/3: Der erforderliche Beitragssatz in der Rentenversicherung im Szenario „Inflationsausgleich“ fällt deutlich niedriger aus und sinkt ab 2035 sogar wieder, während er im Szenario „Status quo“ weiter ansteigt. Durch den Inflationsausgleich kann also ein stabiles Rentenniveau bei Renteneintritt gewährleistet und gleichzeitig eine Dämpfung der Rentenausgaben erreicht werden, wenn die Bevölkerung altert. Quelle: Holtemöller, Oliver; Zeddies, Götz: Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag. IWH Online 2/2017. Halle (Saale) 2017.
in: Journal of Finance, im Erscheinen
<p>We examine how firms adapt their organization when they go public. To conform with the requirements of public capital markets, we expect IPO firms to become more organized, making the firm more accountable and its human capital more easily replaceable. We find that IPO firms transform into a more hierarchical organization with smaller departments. Managerial oversight increases. Organizational functions dedicated to accounting, finance, information and communication, and human resources become much more prominent. Employee turnover is sizeable and directly related to changes in hierarchical layers. New hires are better educated, but younger and less experienced than incumbents, which reflects the staffing needs of a more hierarchical organization. Wage inequality increases as firms become more hierarchical. Overall, going public is associated with a comprehensive transformation of the firm's organization which becomes geared towards efficiently operating a public firm.</p>
in: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, im Erscheinen
<p>We find that a firm’s stock price drops when its compensation peer firm announces a severe say-on-pay voting failure. This price drop causes a reduction in the focal firm CEO’s pay in the following period. The effect on CEO pay is stronger when the board of directors is more powerful, when the proxy advisor holds a negative view of the CEO’s pay, and when the hired compensation consultant is less reputable. Directors who cut their CEO’s pay following the price drop receive more voting support from investors than other directors. Our findings show that the peer firm’s voting failure induces a market-feedback effect for focal firm directors.</p>
in: Management Science, im Erscheinen
<p>The effects of private equity buyouts on employment, productivity, and job reallocation vary tremendously with macroeconomic and credit conditions, across private equity groups, and by type of buyout. We reach this conclusion by examining the most extensive database of U.S. buyouts ever compiled, encompassing thousands of buyout targets from 1980 to 2013 and millions of control firms. Employment shrinks 12% over two years after buyouts of publicly listed firms—on average, and relative to control firms—but expands 15% after buyouts of privately held firms. Postbuyout productivity gains at target firms are large on average and much larger yet for deals executed amid tight credit conditions. A postbuyout tightening of credit conditions or slowing of gross domestic product growth curtails employment growth and intrafirm job reallocation at target firms. We also show that buyout effects differ across the private equity groups that sponsor buyouts, and these differences persist over time at the group level. Rapid upscaling in deal flow at the group level brings lower employment growth at target firms. We relate these findings to theories of private equity that highlight agency problems at portfolio firms and within the private equity industry itself.</p>
in: Political Research Quarterly, im Erscheinen
<p>How durable are the political accountability effects of the worst pandemic in a century? We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through its “high” and “low” phases in the Czech Republic. Uniquely, we ask about the effects of both the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during “high” pandemic phases without higher support for non-democratic alternatives. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.</p>
in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, im Erscheinen
<p>We examine the effects of the big five personalities of CEOs (openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism) on their annual compensation. We hand-collect the tweets of S&P 1500 CEOs and use IBM's Watson Personality Insights to measure their personalities. CEOs with high ratings of agreeableness and conscientiousness get more compensation. We further find that the firms with these CEOs outperform their peers due to better investment efficiency. Firms are willing to pay higher compensation for talent, especially for firms with better operations, located in states with higher labor unionization, or facing higher competition in the product market. Overall, CEO personality is a valid predictor of CEOs' compensation.</p>
in: Review of Economics and Statistics, im Erscheinen
<p>We show an equivalence result in the standard representative agent New Keynesian model after demand, wage markup and correlated price markup and TFP shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case- flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence result arises if the price and wage Phillips curves' slopes are identical and generalizes to any pair of price and wage Phillips curve slopes such that their sum and product are identical. Nevertheless, the cyclical implications for profits and wages are substantially different. We discuss how the equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale in production. Lastly, we point to an econometric identification problem raised by our equivalence result and discuss possible solutions thereof.</p>
in: Applied Economic Letters, im Erscheinen
<p>This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation.</p>
in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, im Erscheinen
<p>We study how deposit competition affects a bank's decision to securitize mortgages. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the U.S. as a source of competition, we find a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize mortgage loans. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in deposit costs and corresponding reductions in banks' deposit holdings. Our results are strongest among banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight a hitherto undocumented and unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.</p>
in: Journal of Financial Research, im Erscheinen
<p>This paper analyses whether Christian moralities and rules formed differently by Catholics and Protestants impact the likelihood of households to become overindebted. We find that over-indebtedness is lower in regions in which Catholics outweigh Protestants, indicating that Catholics‘ forgiveness culture and a stricter enforcement of rules by Protestants serve as explanations for our results. Our results provide evidence that religion affects the financial situations of individuals and show that even 500 years after the split between Catholics and Protestants, the differences in the mind-sets of both denominations play an important role for situations of severe financial conditions.</p>
in: Applied Economic Letters, im Erscheinen
<p>This study investigates the impact of inaccurate assumptions on economic forecast precision. We construct a new dataset comprising an unbalanced panel of annual German GDP forecasts from various institutions, taking into account their underlying assumptions. We explicitly control for different forecast horizons to reflect the information available at the time of release. Our analysis reveals that approximately 75% of the variation in squared forecast errors can be attributed to the variation in squared errors of the initial assumptions. This finding emphasizes the importance of accurate assumptions in economic forecasting and suggests that forecasters should transparently disclose their assumptions to enhance the usefulness of their forecasts in shaping effective policy recommendations.</p>
in: Journal of Finance, im Erscheinen
<p>We examine how firms adapt their organization when they go public. To conform with the requirements of public capital markets, we expect IPO firms to become more organized, making the firm more accountable and its human capital more easily replaceable. We find that IPO firms transform into a more hierarchical organization with smaller departments. Managerial oversight increases. Organizational functions dedicated to accounting, finance, information and communication, and human resources become much more prominent. Employee turnover is sizeable and directly related to changes in hierarchical layers. New hires are better educated, but younger and less experienced than incumbents, which reflects the staffing needs of a more hierarchical organization. Wage inequality increases as firms become more hierarchical. Overall, going public is associated with a comprehensive transformation of the firm's organization which becomes geared towards efficiently operating a public firm.</p>
in: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, im Erscheinen
<p>We find that a firm’s stock price drops when its compensation peer firm announces a severe say-on-pay voting failure. This price drop causes a reduction in the focal firm CEO’s pay in the following period. The effect on CEO pay is stronger when the board of directors is more powerful, when the proxy advisor holds a negative view of the CEO’s pay, and when the hired compensation consultant is less reputable. Directors who cut their CEO’s pay following the price drop receive more voting support from investors than other directors. Our findings show that the peer firm’s voting failure induces a market-feedback effect for focal firm directors.</p>
in: Management Science, im Erscheinen
<p>The effects of private equity buyouts on employment, productivity, and job reallocation vary tremendously with macroeconomic and credit conditions, across private equity groups, and by type of buyout. We reach this conclusion by examining the most extensive database of U.S. buyouts ever compiled, encompassing thousands of buyout targets from 1980 to 2013 and millions of control firms. Employment shrinks 12% over two years after buyouts of publicly listed firms—on average, and relative to control firms—but expands 15% after buyouts of privately held firms. Postbuyout productivity gains at target firms are large on average and much larger yet for deals executed amid tight credit conditions. A postbuyout tightening of credit conditions or slowing of gross domestic product growth curtails employment growth and intrafirm job reallocation at target firms. We also show that buyout effects differ across the private equity groups that sponsor buyouts, and these differences persist over time at the group level. Rapid upscaling in deal flow at the group level brings lower employment growth at target firms. We relate these findings to theories of private equity that highlight agency problems at portfolio firms and within the private equity industry itself.</p>
in: Political Research Quarterly, im Erscheinen
<p>How durable are the political accountability effects of the worst pandemic in a century? We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through its “high” and “low” phases in the Czech Republic. Uniquely, we ask about the effects of both the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during “high” pandemic phases without higher support for non-democratic alternatives. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.</p>
in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, im Erscheinen
<p>We examine the effects of the big five personalities of CEOs (openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism) on their annual compensation. We hand-collect the tweets of S&P 1500 CEOs and use IBM's Watson Personality Insights to measure their personalities. CEOs with high ratings of agreeableness and conscientiousness get more compensation. We further find that the firms with these CEOs outperform their peers due to better investment efficiency. Firms are willing to pay higher compensation for talent, especially for firms with better operations, located in states with higher labor unionization, or facing higher competition in the product market. Overall, CEO personality is a valid predictor of CEOs' compensation.</p>
in: Review of Economics and Statistics, im Erscheinen
<p>We show an equivalence result in the standard representative agent New Keynesian model after demand, wage markup and correlated price markup and TFP shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case- flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence result arises if the price and wage Phillips curves' slopes are identical and generalizes to any pair of price and wage Phillips curve slopes such that their sum and product are identical. Nevertheless, the cyclical implications for profits and wages are substantially different. We discuss how the equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale in production. Lastly, we point to an econometric identification problem raised by our equivalence result and discuss possible solutions thereof.</p>
in: Applied Economic Letters, im Erscheinen
<p>This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation.</p>
in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, im Erscheinen
<p>We study how deposit competition affects a bank's decision to securitize mortgages. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the U.S. as a source of competition, we find a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize mortgage loans. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in deposit costs and corresponding reductions in banks' deposit holdings. Our results are strongest among banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight a hitherto undocumented and unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.</p>
in: Journal of Financial Research, im Erscheinen
<p>This paper analyses whether Christian moralities and rules formed differently by Catholics and Protestants impact the likelihood of households to become overindebted. We find that over-indebtedness is lower in regions in which Catholics outweigh Protestants, indicating that Catholics‘ forgiveness culture and a stricter enforcement of rules by Protestants serve as explanations for our results. Our results provide evidence that religion affects the financial situations of individuals and show that even 500 years after the split between Catholics and Protestants, the differences in the mind-sets of both denominations play an important role for situations of severe financial conditions.</p>
in: Applied Economic Letters, im Erscheinen
<p>This study investigates the impact of inaccurate assumptions on economic forecast precision. We construct a new dataset comprising an unbalanced panel of annual German GDP forecasts from various institutions, taking into account their underlying assumptions. We explicitly control for different forecast horizons to reflect the information available at the time of release. Our analysis reveals that approximately 75% of the variation in squared forecast errors can be attributed to the variation in squared errors of the initial assumptions. This finding emphasizes the importance of accurate assumptions in economic forecasting and suggests that forecasters should transparently disclose their assumptions to enhance the usefulness of their forecasts in shaping effective policy recommendations.</p>
